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Exit Poll «УКРАИНА-2012»: демографическая структура избирателей

Exit Poll «Ukraine-2012": the demographic structure of the voters

Date posted: 12.11.2012 Print Full version

On October 28, 2012, pursuant to order of Channel 5, Sociological group Rating conducted the exit poll UKRAINE 2012. The poll was conducted at the exit of 350 polling stations. 23 800 respondents were interviewed. The margin of error of values close to 10%, constitutes less than 1%, and of values close to 20-30% - no more than 1.5-2%. 
According to the exit poll results the Party of Regions was supported by almost 29% of the respondents, Batkivshchyna - about 24%, UDAR - about 14%, Communist party of Ukraine (CPU) - about 13%, and Svoboda - more than 12%. 
Deviations above the level of statistical error limit are fixed only concerning Svoboda    (-2.2), which according to the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has gained less than according to the exit poll results (10.4 against 12.6%). In contrast, according to the data provided by the CEC the results of the Party of Regions (+1.3%) and Batkivshchyna (+1.6%) proved to be higher than the exit poll results obtained by Rating group. 
Distinctively, all the exit polls which were conducted on October 28, 2012, gave Svoboda more votes than the CEC, and what concerns Batkivshchyna and CPU - less. As to the Party of Regions, the results of exit polls demonstrated different tendencies - a part of companies announced results which were lower than the CEC results, and the other part - vice versa - the higher.
According to the official data of the CEC, the difference between the support of Party of regions and that of Batkivshchyna constitutes 4.5%. The exit polls of Sociological group Rating (4.8%), National Exit Poll - Deminitsiatyvy, Razumkov Centre, KMIS (3.7%) and TNS/SOCIS (6.6%) were the closest to aforementioned official figures.


If we compare the elections results with the latest researches of Sociological group Rating (results after the distribution of uncertain voters), the following may be concluded:

  • Since September the total support of current coalition parties (the Party of Regions, CPU) has decreased from 44.5 to 43.2%, since the beginning of October - has not changed (43.2% - at the elections). At the same time, the total support of opposition parties (Batkivshchyna, UDAR and Svoboda) has been increasing dramatically: from 46.4% in September up to 48.8% at the beginning of October and up to 49.9% at the elections on October 28.
  • The ratings of parties measured by the researches of Sociological group Rating in September are very close to results provided by the CEC at the elections on October 28. With the exception of Svoboda, the support of which has doubled in comparison with September, and in comparison with the beginning of October - has increased three times. The support of the Party of Regions has slightly decreased (-1.5%), the same concerns Batkivshchyna (-1.6%), while the rate of support of UDAR and CPU has practically remained unchanged.
  • In addition, certain changes occurred in early October: the support of UDAR  increased dramatically, and for the first time it took the second place, becoming ahead of Batkivshchyna. The support of CPU also increased while the ratings of the Party of Regions were falling. However, the peak of emotional choice in early October was not confirmed by the pragmatic choice when voting on October 28, and the parties returned to September figures.



Demographic characteristics of choice: 
Only in Western Ukraine the youth was active at present elections and in the rest area the youth showed the lowest activity. It was predicted by most sociologists, including Rating group, moreover, these tendencies are repeated from elections to elections. Thus, the youth aged 18-29 constitutes nearly quarter in the structure of voters. However, in fact, the youth aged 18-29 years constitutes only 18% of those who came to vote. The proportion of voters aged 30-39 years has also decreased (from 18 to 15%). Instead, the change has occurred in older group: the proportion of voters aged 50-59 years increased from 17 to 21%, and voters aged 60 and older - 25 to 28%.
The detailed analysis showed that the greatest change in the number of active voters occurred in groups of 55-64 years (increase) and 18-24 years (decrease). 
The youngest electorate is peculiar to parties UDAR (32% - aged 18-29 or 18% - 18-24), Ukraine - Vpered (29% - aged 18-29 or 17% - aged 18 -24) and Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko (23% - aged 18-29 years, or 15% - 18-24). The party of Volodymyr Klitschko has the highest number of voters of youngest age groups.
Analysis of the age difference between all voters and those who took part in voting on October 28 demonstrates the change in the number of active voters according to different age groups, due to which UDAR gained 1.5-2% less at the elections than it was expected. In addition, predominantly only the youth voted at these elections for Party of Green of Ukraine, for Green, Green Planet, Ukraine of the future, which received totally more than 1% of supporting votes. 
The oldest electorate is peculiar to Communist Party (23% - aged 50-59 years and 44% - aged 60 years and older). Mostly only older people also voted for Party of Pensioners of Ukraine. 
In addition, a significant part of older people supported the of Party of Regions (21% - aged 50-59 years and 33% - 60 years and older) and Batkivshchyna (25% - aged 50-59 years and 28% - 60 and older years). 
The parties Svoboda and Our Ukraine are mostly supported by people of middle age. 
Women predominate among the supporters of the Party of Regions (59%), Ukraine - Vpered (58%) and Batkivshchyna (58%). Men constitute a considerable part of the voters for Svoboda (56%), UDAR (53%), Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko (53%). 
The parties Our Ukraine and CPU have relatively equal gender structure of the electorate.

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