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Мониторинг  электоральных  настроений  украинцев

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians

Date posted: 13.11.2018 Print Full version

 • According to the results of the joint sociological survey conducted by three sociological companies (KIIS, Razumkov Center, and Sociological Group Rating), 78% of Ukrainians believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. Only 12% consider the direction of the state’s movement to be right (over the month, the indicator has deteriorated from 15% to 12%); 11% could not answer this question.

Referring the assessments of the local affairs’ development, negative evaluations are also prevailing, although these assessments are better than those at the central level. Thus, 64% of the respondents believe the region is moving in the wrong direction (only 17% believe this direction to be right). 58% are negative while assessing the situation in the place of their residence (26% are positive).

According to the majority of the respondents (64%), the peace is the thing that Ukraine lacks the most these days. 41% believe that the state lacks stability the most, 40% - order, 35-36% - prosperity and development, and 27% - unity and justice. The issue of peace is more relevant for Galicia and Donbas, stability - for the South, development and prosperity - for the East, unity - for Donbas. Issues of order and justice are equally relevant for the respondents in almost all macro-regions.
Economic decline (59%), mass migration of Ukrainians abroad (59%), and poverty of the population (51%) are considered to be among the threats most relevant for Ukraine today. 32% to 39% of the polled mention the hryvnia devaluation, the extinction of the population, the collapse of the country, the growth of crime, and the deterioration of the nation’s health as the threats. More than a quarter of the polled believe that the relevant threats are the full-scale war with Russia, anarchy, and the population’s degradation. Every fifth speaks of possible ecological catastrophes. The economic decline, as the threat, was more often chosen in the South, the mass migration of Ukrainians - in Galicia. The threats of hryvnia devaluation, population extinction, country collapse, crime increase, and population degradation are more relevant for the residents of the Southern and Eastern regions. The full-scale war with Russia and anarchy are of more importance for the residents of Galicia and Center. 
Military conflict in the East (66%) and bribery and corruption within state bodies (43%) are two main problems of the national level. Unemployment and low salaries are relevant problems for the whole country in the opinion of one-third of the respondents.
On the personal level, the main problems highlighted by the respondents are growth of tariffs (59%), low salaries and pensions (52%), and growth of prices for basic goods (42%). 28% of the respondents are concerned about the war in the East as a personal problem, 17-19% - about bribery and corruption within state bodies, lack of work, poor quality of healthcare, 11% - about insufficient level of social protection.
Yulia Tymoshenko remains the leader of the presidential rating – she is almost twice ahead of her closest competitors. 21% of those who have decided on the choice and intend to vote are ready to support Y.Tymoshenko. V.Zelensky is supported by 11%, P.Poroshenko – by 10%, A.Hrytsenko - 10%, Y.Boyko - 9%, O.Lyashko - 8%, S.Vakarchuk - 6%, Y.Murayev - 5%. The rating of other candidates is less than 5%. Over the last six months, an increase in the rating of Yulia Tymoshenko has been recorded. Also, against the background of the decrease in the ratings of S.Varkarchuk, the indicator of V.Zelensky has almost doubled. In its turn, due to Y.Murayev’s entering the list of candidates, the rating of V.Rabinovych has significantly decreased.
Y.Tymoshenko is among the leaders of electoral sympathies in all macro-regions of the country, except for Donbas, where she gains less than Y.Boyko.
Anti-rating of the politicians is headed by P.Poroshenko - more than a half of the respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
Every fifth voter believes that Y.Tymoshenko will become the next president. 14% of those who intend to take part in the elections believe in P.Poroshenko's victory. Less than 4% of the polled believe that other politicians can take the highest public office. Over the last six months, the number of those who believe in the victory of Y.Tymoshenko at the presidential elections has almost doubled. A similar indicator of P.Poroshenko has not changed much.
According to the results of the second round simulation, Y.Tymoshenko wins considering all probable electoral pairs. Instead, P.Poroshenko loses to all possible candidates of the second round.
There are seven political forces with significant chances to enter the parliament. Batkyvshchyna remains the leader of the rating - 22% of the respondents who have already decided and intend to vote are ready to support it. The support for “Sluha Narodu” party is 11%, Civic Position - 10%, Opposition Bloc - 9%, BPP Solidarnist - 8%, Radical Party - 7%, “Nashy”.of Y.Murayev - 5%. Considering the semi-annual dynamics, the growing popularity of Batkyvshchyna, “Sluha Narodu”, and UKROP was recorded. With the advent of Y.Murayev's political project "Nashy", the rating of “Za Zhyttia” party has significantly decreased.
For 48% of the polled, the key reason for choosing a specific party is the support of the socio-economic initiatives of this political force. 18% vote based primarily on their sympathy for the leader, 12% - considering the ideological principles. Voting for socio-economic initiatives is dominating among the voters of almost all rating political forces.
Two-thirds of the respondents (as in May of this year) believe that economic reforms are the most needed for Ukraine. 43% consider social reforms to be the top priority, 37% - anti-corruption reforms. 16% name the political reforms among the top priorities, every tenth - humanitarian and security reforms. Over the last five months, the relevance of social reforms has grown somewhat, while in terms of anti-corruption reforms it has decreased.
72% oppose the agricultural land sale, only 13% support the launch of the land market. A somewhat higher level of support for the land reform is recorded among those with higher incomes and also younger respondents. On the other hand, there is no significant difference between the rural and urban residents in relation to the land sale - an absolute majority of both of them stands against this initiative. At the same time, rural residents are even more likely to criticize the introduction of land market as compared to the cities’ residents.
The population's support for the European integration and joining the NATO remains unchanged. Thus, the entry into the EU is supported by a half of the respondents, 30% stand against. The NATO membership has somewhat higher number of supporters (40%) than opponents (36%). The pro-western vector has a higher level of support among the residents of the Central and Western regions, as well as among younger respondents and those with higher incomes. Over the last two years, the level of support for Ukraine's integration with both the EU and the NATO has declined somewhat.
When it comes to choosing one of the vectors of foreign economic integration, 47% declare support for the European Union integration, and only 11% - for the Customs Union. At the same time, 30% state that Ukraine should stay equidistant both from Europe and from Russia. Interestingly, supporters of the EU membership practically do not change their opinion about the necessity of the European integration. On the other hand, two-thirds of those who oppose the alliance with Europe, support foreign economic neutrality, and only a quarter stands for joining the Customs Union.
Simulation of the choice between military blocs and neutrality reviled the following results: 39% support joining the NATO, 35% - support staying outside any blocks, and only 9% - joining the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). Interestingly, in such circumstances, an absolute majority of the NATO supporters still argues the need to integrate into the block. On the other hand, almost 70% of those who oppose joining the Alliance stand for the neutral status of Ukraine, and only every fifth of them - support joining the CSTO.
Over the last month, support for peaceful solutions to the problem in the Donbas has increased somewhat. Thus, 31% of the polled stand for the termination of hostilities in the Donbas and the recognition of these territories as temporarily occupied, and 27% - for granting these territories with federative status as part of Ukraine. Only 8% support the separation of these territories from Ukraine, and every sixth (17%) have not decided on this issue. On the other hand, 17% believe that it is necessary to continue military operations until the full restoration of Ukrainian authorities in the occupied territories - the level of support for this alternative has decreased from 21% to 17%.
63% of the polled consider Russia as the aggressor against Ukraine. 22% share the opposite opinion, 15% - have not decided on this issue. The highest number of those who do not consider Russia as the aggressor (or refrained from responding) was recorded among the respondents from the South, East, and Donbas.
Results of the joint survey of KIIS, Razumkov Center, and Sociological Group Rating. Sample: 10 000 respondents in all regions of Ukraine (excluding the population of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). The sample is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in terms of gender, age, type of settlement, and region of residence. The margin of error does not exceed 1.0%. Period of the survey: 19 October – 2 November, 2018

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