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Электоральные настроения населения Украины:  февраль 2012

Electoral moods of the population of Ukraine: February 2012

Date posted: 05.03.2012 Print Full version

 According to the research conducted by the Sociological group "Rating" if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine occured in February 2012, 42% of respondents would definitely participate in them, 33% of respondents would likely participate.

Compared to previous months, the level of voter mobilization slightly increased. Just like last December, the most mobilized are voters of Batkivshchyna, Freedom and the CPU. Moreover, the highest level of mobilization is in the West, in the North and in the East, the lowest - in the Centre and in the South.
If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine occured in February 2012, 19.6% of respondents (among those who intend to participate in elections) would vote for Batkivshchyna, 18.2% - for the Party of Regions, 11.2% - for the Front for Change , 7% - for the Communist Party, 6.5% - for V. Klychko’s party UDAR, 4.3% - for Freedom. Other 2.9% of voters would support Strong Ukraine, 2.1% - Civil Position, 1.6% - People's Party. The remaining parties are supported by less than 1% of voters, in general there are about 5% of them.
7.9% would not support any of the parties ("against all"), 13.9% have not decided on their choice.
Due to changes in election laws, the "against all" category was asked an additional question: "According to the new law, voters will not be able to vote "against all" in parliamentary elections 2012. How will you vote in this case? "
According to results, the responses were as follows: 16% of the "against all" voters will vote for specific parties (relatively more for UDAR, the Front for Change and Batkivshchyna), 48% - have not decided, 36% - will not participate in elections.
Thus, the "against all" responses were reallocated and specified in the direction of reducing the likely turnout; final party ratings were deduced.
Accordingly, Batkivshchyna was supported by 20.3%, the Party of Regions – by 18.8%, the Front for Change – by 11.7%, the CPU – by 7.2%, UDAR – by 6.9%, Freedom – by 4.5%, Strong Ukraine – by 3.1%, Civil Position – by 2.2%, the People's Party – by 1.6%. Other parties – by more than 5% of voters. 18.2% of voters are undecided. Thus, only the number of undecided has increased significantly (from 14 to 18%), while party indices and places in the rating have hardly changed.
If presidential elections in Ukraine occured in February 2012, 19.7% of respondents (among those who intend to participate in elections) would vote for V. Yanukovych, 19.4% - for Y. Tymoshenko, 12.8% - for A. Yatsenyuk, 6.5% - for V. Klychko, 5.6% - for P. Symonenko, 3.7% - for S. Tihipko, 3% - for O.Tiahnybok, 2.7% - for A. Hrytsenko, 1.5% - for V. Lytvyn, 0.7% - for N. Korolevska, 0.6% - for V. Yushchenko. Other candidates are supported by almost 4%, 6% would not support any of the candidates, 14.1% - are undecided.
Compared to last December, UDAR shows the greatest growth; its position improved from 5 to 6.5%. As a result, UDAR approximated to the CPU in its rating (7%), while V. Klychko reclaimed the fourth position in the presidential rating.
Ratings of the leaders have hardly changed: Batkivshchyna, just like in December, is slightly ahead of the Party of Regions (19.6% vs. 18.2%), while in the presidential rating the leadership goes to V. Yanukovych (19.7% - V. Yanukovych vs. 19.4% - Y. Tymoshenko). As compared to December, the position of V. Yanukovych has somewhat improved, while the rating of the Party of Regions has decreased.
Ratings of the Front for Change (11.2%) and A.Yatsenyuk (12.8%) are completely stable.
Yet, the Communists were unable to confirm the dynamic growth, which occured in December (over 8%), however, this result is enough to get into the parliament.
The positions of Freedom have not changed (4.4%): the party is still close to overcoming the 5% barrier in the elections.
However, Strong Ukraine (2.9%) and Civil Position (2.1%) have fewer chances of overcoming the passing barrier with the current edition of the Election Law.
The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 4000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 1.5%, for the values close to 30% – less than 1.3%, for the values close to 10% – less than 0.9. The period of completion: 10-24 of February 2012
The oblast’ distribution:
West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.

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