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Электоральные настроения населения Украины:  ноябрь 2011

Electoral moods of the population of Ukraine: November 2011

Date posted: 17.11.2011 Print Full version

According to the research conducted by the Sociological group "Rating", if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place at the beginning of November 2011, 33% of respondents would definitely take part in them, 33% - would likely take part. The activity in presidential elections is somewhat higher: 35% of respondents would definitely take part in them, 33% - would likely take part. The most mobilized are voters of Batkivshchyna, the CPU and the Party of Regions.

RESULTS:

If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place at the beginning of November 2011, 22% of respondents (among those who would participate in elections) would vote for the Party of Regions, 19.9% ​​- for Batkivshchyna, 9.8% - for the Front for Change, 5.4% - for the Communist Party, 4.7% - for V. Klitschko’s party UDAR, 3.3% - for Freedom.

 Other 1.9% of voters would support Civil Position, 1.2% - People's Party, 1.1% - Our Ukraine. Other parties would be supported by 4.3% of the voters, 13.2% - would not support any of the parties ("against all"), 13.2% - have not decided on their choice.

Thus, if elections were held at the beginning of November and the passing barrier remained at the level of 3%, six parties would get into the Parliament: the Party of Regions, Batkivshchyna, Front for Change, the CPU, UDAR and Freedom. If the passing barrier were raised up to 4%, five parties would get into the Parliament, and if the passing barrier were raised up to 5% - only four parties.

 If presidential elections in Ukraine were held at the beginning of November 2011, 20.1% of respondents (among those who would participate in elections) would vote for V. Yanukovych, 19.3% - for Y. Tymoshenko, 11.1% - for A. Yatsenyuk, 5.5% - for V. Klitschko, 5.2% - for P. Symonenko, 2.8% - for O. Tiahnybok, 2.2% - for S. Tihipko, 2.6% - for A. Hrytsenko.

 Other candidates were supported by almost 5% of respondents, 11.9% - did not support any of the candidates ("against all"), 14.3% - have not decided on their choice.

TENDENCIES:

  • Despite the fact that the rating of the Party of Regions has stabilized (22%), the level of support for V. Yanukovych continues to decrease (from 23% in May to 21% in September and 20% in November).
  •     Simultaneously, support for Y. Tymoshenko (19%) and Batkivshchyna (20%) has increased - improved attitude to Y. Tymoshenko, which was recently recorded in the West, in the North and in the Center of the country, becomes electoral dividends.
  •      As a result, the gap between the first and the second places in the presidential rating has decreased to 1%, and in the party rating - to 2%.
  •     We should also emphasize the stability of the position of the Communists (5%) and Civil Position (2%).
  •     Instead, the Front for Change (10%) and UDAR (5%) have lost their increasing dynamics. Freedom (3%) failed to stop the downward dynamics.
  •     The number of respondents who do not support any party continues to increase (13%) as well as the number of respondents who have not made their choice (13%).

All data are presented among respondents  who intend to participate in elections.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2,2%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,3. The period of completion: 25 of October – 6 of November 2011

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.

Other research: