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Электоральные настроения населения Украины: октябрь 2010

Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: October 2010

Date posted: 14.10.2010 Print Full version

As of early October, the highest position in the presidential rating is held by Viktor Yanukovych, supported by 27,1% of all respondents (or 31,3% of those who would participate in elections if they were held next Sunday).

The second position is held by Yulia Tymoshenko, supported by 15,5% of all respondents (19,7%). S. Tihipko is supported by 8,3% of all respondents (10%), A. Yatsenyuk – by 5,6% (7,1%), P. Symonenko - by 3% (3,3%), O. Tiahnybok – by 2,3 % (2,8%), V. Lytvyn – by 1,8% (2%), A. Hrytsenko – by 1,1% (1,4%), V. Yushchenko - by 1,1% (1,4%).

2,8% (2,9%) of all respondents are ready to support another candidate, 12,2% (9,1%) - do not support any candidate, 8,5% - will not participate in elections. Undecided respondents - 10,9% or 9,1% among those who would participate in elections if they were held next Sunday.

In the rating of parties the first position is still held by the Party of Regions, which is supported by 23,9% of all respondents (or 29,1% of those who would participate in elections).

The second position is held by Batkivshchyna, which is supported by 12,9% of all respondents (16,8%).

Strong Ukraine is supported by 6.8% of all respondents (8.5%), Front for Change – by 4,5% (5,7%), the Communist Party of Ukraine - by 3,6% (4,3%), Freedom – by 3,3 % (4,2%). All of the above political forces would get into the Parliament if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place next Sunday.

Next in the rating there are: People's Party, which is supported by 1.8% of all respondents (2%), V. Klychko’s party UDAR - 1,1% (1,4%), Our Ukraine - 1% (1,4%), A. Hrytsenko’s Civil Position - 0,8% (0,9%), V. Kyrylenko’s For Ukraine! - 0,6% (0,7%) and V. Baloha’s United Centre - 0,5% (0,6%).

The remaining parties are supported by no more than 0,5% of the respondents. 2,6% of respondents are ready to support other parties, 9,4% (8%) - do not support any party, 11,1% - will not participate in elections. Undecided respondents - 16,6% or 13,5% among those who would participate in elections if they were held next Sunday.

Compared to a similar research conducted by the sociological group "Rating" this September, the following tendencies were recorded:

• The presidential rating of V. Yanukovych has stabilized and has even slightly increased (from 26% to 27,1%), although it is still early to speak about increase tendencies, because fluctuations in values are within statistical error. The rating of the Party of Regions has not changed (24,4% - in September against 23,9% - in October);

• The presidential rating of Y. Tymoshenko has slightly decreased (16,8% - in September to 15,5% - in October), though it is still early to speak about decline tendencies, because fluctuations in values are within statistical error. The support for Batkivshchyna has truly decreased from 15,5% in September to 12,9% in October - a noticeable tendency of the increase in the difference between the party rating and the personal rating of the leader, which is characteristic primarily to Western Ukraine, where support for Freedom (especially in Galicia) and for other democratic parties (depending on the region) dynamically increases before local elections;

• The rating of S. Tihipko continues to show downward tendency (13,6% - in March, 13,4% - in April, 11,8% - in June, 11,1% - in September, 8.3% - in October). Strong Ukraine repeats a smooth downward tendency of its leader’s personal positions. Its ratings amounted to 12,7% in March, 10,7% - in April, 9.2% - in June, 8,8% - in September, 6,8% - in October;

• A. Yatsenyuk gradually restores his positions, getting closer to the result recorded during presidential elections. Specifically, A. Yatsenyuk’s rating was 4,3% in June, 4,2% - in September, 5,6% - in October. Ratings of Front for Change repeat tendencies of change in its leader’s personal positions, remaining about 1% behind.

• The Communist Party of Ukraine and Freedom consolidated their positions above the line of surmounting the 3 percent barrier.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 3%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2,6%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,8. The period of completion: 4-11 of October 2010

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.

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