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Электоральные настроения населения Украины: сентябрь 2010

Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: September 2010

Date posted: 20.09.2010 Print Full version

As of September the highest position in the presidential rating is held by Viktor Yanukovych. However, as compared to the similar research conducted in June, his rating (among all respondents) decreased by 1.5 times - from 38.2% to 26%. The second position is held by Yulia Tymoshenko – her rating rose by a quarter since June - from 13.2% to 16.8%.

It cannot be asserted that the current President began to dramatically lose support; existent tendencies indicate the ending of the so-called "honeymoon" of power when ratings were formed mainly by overstated citizens’ expectations. Similarly we cannot assert the radical growth of Y. Tymoshenko’s ratings – it is the return of her supporters who have suffered a sudden disappointment as a result of her loss in the presidential elections.

This is also demonstrated by the regional specificity. Tymoshenko began to recover her positions in basic regions: in the West, in the Centre and in the North, but she still falls short to reach the level of the 1st round of presidential elections.

It is in these regions that Viktor Yanukovych began to lose his positions, although much larger threats to him are concentrated in basic regions – in the East, in the South and in Donbas, where there is an increase in the number of disappointed population and a certain reorientation towards leftist politicians and political parties (the Communist Party, the Socialist Party, the Progressive Socialist Party, the pro-Russian political forces).

As a result, both Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko gradually reach mid last year positions - the gap of 10%, which was last recorded by the results of the 1st round of presidential elections. The situation is repeated, yet the difference is that last year the third position was held by Yatsenyuk (up to December), while at present it is held by S. Tihipko.

Tihipko’s rating is generally not exposed to sharp fluctuations and at the same time it shows a slight downward tendency (13.6% - in March, 13.4% - in April, 11.8% - in June, 11.1% - in September).

He is followed by A. Yatsenyuk (4.2%), P. Symonenko (3.1%), O. Tiahnybok (1.8%), A. Hrytsenko (1.7%), V. Yushchenko (1.5%) and V. Lytvyn (1.3%).

Іншого кандидата готові підтримати 1,5% опитаних, не підтримують жодного – 10,9%, не визначились з підтримкою – 10,9%, не брали б участі у виборах – 9,3% респондентів

1.5% of respondents are ready to support another candidate, 10.9% - support none of them; 10.9% - have not decided on their support, 9.3% of respondents – would not participate in the elections.

The situation at the level of political parties generally follows the above tendencies.

Thus, the Party of Regions remains the leader of sympathies, though in recent months its rating (among all respondents) decreased from 35.2% in June to 24.4% in September. The second position is held by the All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (Batkivshchyna)  – the rating increased from 12.4% in June (measured as Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc) to 15.5% (measured as Batkivshchyna). The third position is held by S. Tihipko’s Strong Ukraine, which repeats the smooth downward tendency of the personal position of its leader. Its ratings amounted to 12.7% in March, to 10.7% in April, to 9.2% in June and to 8.8% in September.

Ratings of A. Yatsenyuk’s Front for Change are somewhat conserved (3.5%); the ratings of two radically opposing forces have increased as compared to June: the Communist Party - from 2.5% to 3.8% and All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom" - from 1.7 to 3%. The first party attempts to create an alternative for people who are disappointed in governmental policy, on the left flank (while remaining the part of authorities), the second party – for people who are disappointed in oppositional policy, on the right flank. The increase in ratings of these political forces demonstrates the success of this formula.

These six political parties - the Party of Regions, "Fatherland" (Batkivshchyna), Strong Ukraine, Front for Change, the Communist Party and Freedom - would get into the parliament, if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday.

They are followed by Our Ukraine (1.4%), V. Lytvyn’s People's Party (1%), A. Hrytsenko’s Civil Position (0.9%), V. Klychko’s party UDAR (0.9%), the Socialist Party (0.5%), N. Vitrenko’s Progressive Socialist Party (0.4%) and V. Kyrylenko’s For Ukraine! (0.4%). 1.1% of respondents support other parties, 11.5% support none of them, 13.3% - have not decided, 9.7% of respondents would not participate in the elections.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 3%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2,6%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,8. The period of completion: 9-16 of September 2010.

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.

Other research: