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Мониторинг  электоральных  настроений украинцев

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians

Date posted: 25.03.2019 Print Full version

 • According to the results of the joint sociological survey conducted by three sociological companies (KIIS, Razumkov Center, and Sociological Group Rating), 35% believe the situation in the country will improve as a result of the presidential elections, which will take place on March 31, 2019 (over the last calendar quarter, the indicator has improved from 31% to 35%). At the same time, 32% believe the situation will not change, and 10% have negative expectations of the elections. The sympathizers of V.Zelensky, Y.Tymoshenko, and P.Poroshenko show a relatively higher level of optimism about the improvements of the situation in the country as a result of the elections. The worst expectations are observed among those who do not intend to vote.

84% of the polled declare their readiness to participate in the presidential elections in Ukraine.
 
The leader of the presidential rating remains V.Zelensky - 27.7% of those who have decided on their choice and intend to take part in the elections are ready to support him. Y.Tymoshenko is supported by 16.6%, P.Poroshenko – by 16.4%. 9.7% are ready to give their votes for A.Hrytsenko, for Y.Boyko - 8.4 %, O.Lyashko - 5.3%, O.Vilkul - 4.0%, I.Smeshko - 3.7%. The rating of other candidates is below 2%.
 
By this time, almost every fourth has not decided on the choice. Most of them are in Galicia, in the North, Center, and East of the country.
 
V.Zelensky has the strongest electoral positions in the South and East, as well as in the Center, West, North, and in the capital. Y.Tymoshenko and P.Poroshenko - in the Central and Western macro-regions. A.Hrytsenko - in the West and Galicia, Y.Boyko and O.Vilkul - in the South, East, and Donbas. O.Lyashko has relatively higher support in the regions of the West, Center, and North.
 
V.Zelensky is the leader of sympathies among young and middle-aged people, Y.Tymoshenko - among the older voters. While V.Zelensky, P.Poroshenko, and A.Hrytsenko are relatively more supported by men, Yulia Tymoshenko gains higher support of women.
 
Anti-rating of the candidates is headed by P.Poroshenko. Almost half of the voters would not vote for him under any circumstances. About 30% would not give their votes for Y.Tymoshenko, for Y.Boyko - 20%, O.Lyashko - 18%, V.Zelensky - 14%, O.Vilkul - 11%.
 
Simulation of the second round revealed the following results: Y.Tymoshenko holds the championship in the pair with P.Poroshenko (26% vs. 19%). At the same time, V.Zelensky wins in the pairs with both P.Poroshenko (39% vs. 18%) and Y.Tymoshenko (34% vs. 21%).
 
Six political forces have the chances of entering the Parliament. The leader of the rating is “Sluha Narodu” party - 24.8% of the respondents who have already decided and intend to vote are ready to support this force. Support for Batkyvshchyna is 17.6%, for BPP Solidarnist - 14.7%, Civic Position - 9.3%, Opposition Platform - 9.2%, Radical Party - 5.3%. The rating of the Opposition Bloc is 4.4%, Svoboda - 3.1%, Samopomich - 2.5%. Almost 30% have not yet decided on the choice of political force.
 
The highest level of support for "Sluha Narodu" party is recorded in the South and East of the country, for Batkyvshchyna - in the Center, BPP Solidarnist - in Galicia, Opposition Platform and Opposition Bloc - in the Southern and Eastern regions and in the Donbas.
 
65% of the polled said they had not personally faced bribes during this presidential election campaign. On the other hand, 27% said they had had such experience: 6% - personally, 21% - heard about it from relatives and friends. The highest number of those who have noted the facts of bribery was recorded among the residents of the South, Donbas, North, and in the capital.
 
42% expect significant falsifications during the presidential elections on March 31, 2019. 41% believe that falsifications are going to be insignificant, and only 6% do not expect any falsification during the elections at all. The highest number of those who expect significant falsifications is recorded among the residents of the South, voters of O.Vilkul and Y.Boyko, as well as among those who do not intend to participate in the elections at all.
 
 
Results of the joint survey of KIIS, Razumkov Center, and Sociological Group Rating. Sample: 15 000 respondents in all regions of Ukraine (excluding the population of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). The sample is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in terms of gender, age, type of settlement, and region of residence. The margin of error does not exceed 0.8%. Period of the survey: 5-14 March, 2019

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