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ГАЗОВЫЕ ПЕРЕГОВОРЫ и украино-российские отношения

GAS NEGOTIATIONS and Ukraine-Russia relations

Date posted: 06.10.2011 Print Full version

According to the research conducted by the Sociological group "Rating" at the end of September 2011, 27% ​​of Ukrainian respondents rated relations between Ukraine and Russia as warm (including 5% - friendly, 12% - good-neighbourly, 10% - quite warm), while 46% rated them as cool (23% - cool, 21% - strained, 2% - hostile).

In addition, 20% of Ukrainian respondents rated relations between Ukraine and Russia as neutral, 7% - have not decided on their answer.

Relations between Ukraine and Russia received the best estimation in the South of our country (40% - warm relations), the worst - in Donbas, in the West and in the East (22%).

However, regarding gas issues only 5% of Ukrainian respondents rated relations between Ukraine and Russia as warm (among them 1% - friendly, 2% - good-neighbourly, 2% - quite warm), while 76% - as cool and, above all, strained (among them 26% - cool, 43% - strained, 7% - hostile).

In addition, 12% of Ukrainian respondents rated relations between Ukraine and Russia regarding gas issues as neutral, 9% of respondents have not decided on their answer.

Thus, Ukrainians believe that relations between two neighboring states are more cool than warm, and as regards gas matters they are generally strained and even sometimes hostile.

It should be noted that Russians estimate Ukraine-Russia relations practically the same way, although they are somewhat more lenient in their judgments.

Thus, according to results of the research conducted by Levada Center in August 2011, 28% of Russians rated relations between Ukraine and Russia as warm (among them 5% - friendly, 11% - good-neighbourly, 12% - quite warm), while only 39% rated them as cool (among them 26% - cool, 11% - strained, 2% - hostile).

In addition, 27% of Russian respondents rated relations between Ukraine and Russia as neutral, 7% - were undecided on the matter.

According to results of other researches of Levada Center, at the moment Russians evaluate relations between Ukraine and Russia better than in 2006-2007, but worse than in 2003 and significantly worse than in 1999-2000. Then about 50% of Russians evaluated them as warm, and now this number only reaches 28%.

56% of Ukrainian respondents support the signing of the Free Trade Agreement with the European Union, 26% - do not support it, 18% - have not decided on the issue.

Among the biggest supporters of the signing of the Free Trade Agreement with the EU are residents of the North, the West and the East, supporters of Freedom, the Front for Change, Batkivshchyna and UDAR.

At the same time, 53% of Ukrainian respondents support the accession of Ukraine to the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, 28% - do not support this, 19% - have not decided on the matter.

Among the biggest supporters of the Customs Union are residents of the East, the South and Donbas, voters of the Communist Party and the Party of Regions.

Thus, at least 30% of Ukrainians simultaneously support Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union and the signing of the Free Trade Agreement with the European Union, more so in the North and in the East (40%).

There are also respondents who support neither the accession of Ukraine to the Customs Union nor the signing of the Free Trade Agreement with the EU, there are 4% of them, mostly in the Centre (9%).

Taking into account these peculiarities of responses among Ukrainians, respondents were asked a direct question. Thus, according to respondents, the signing of the Free Trade Agreement with the EU is more advantageous for Ukraine (39%) than joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan (34%). 27% - have not decided on the issue.

As a result, the Agreement with the EU are more supported in the West, in the North and in the Center of Ukraine. Joining the Customs Union is more supported in Donbas, in the South and in the East. Though, there are 14% of voters of Batkivshchyna who support joining the Customs Union as well as there are 14% of the Communists among   supporters of the Agreement with the European Union. Similarly, 27% of voters of the Party of Regions supported the Agreement with the EU, as well as 22% of supporters of the Front for Change supported the accession to the Customs Union.

 The younger are the respondents, the more supporters of the signing of the Free Trade Agreement with the EU among them (from 47% among people aged 18-29, to 27% - among pensioners). Accordingly, the older are the respondents, the more they support the Customs Union (from 43% among pensioners, to 27% - among young people).

GAS ISSUES

The vast majority of Ukrainian respondents (60%) believe that Ukraine pays Russia for the gas at an above market-value price and that it is raised too high. Only 13% believe that Ukraine pays for the gas at a market price and 1% - that the cost is below market. 26% have not decided on this issue; the majority of them are residents of Donbas and of the East.

More than a half of respondents in all regions (most of them in the North) believe that the gas price for Ukraine is raised too high.

Even in the South 48% stick to this opinion, although a quarter of respondents (twice as much as in other regions) still believe that the gas for Ukraine is at a market and 3% - below market.

Accordingly, the vast majority (70%) believe that Ukraine should seek lower gas prices.

The majority (53%) believes that it is necessary to seek lower gas prices without any concessions on the part of Ukraine.

Only 9% think Ukraine needs to demand lower gas prices in exchange for selling the Ukrainian gas transport system to Russia, 5% - in exchange for the merger of Ukrainian Naftogaz and Russian Gazprom, 3% - in exchange for Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

However, 7% of respondents believe that there is no need to demand anything - Ukraine must perform the decennial contract signed with Russia in 2009. Every fifth resident of the South, every tenth supporter of the Party of Regions and the Communist Party believes so.

Other 23% have not decided on this issue.

Despite citizens’ certitude of the need to reduce gas prices and the justification of such actions, they believe that our country’s positions in negotiations with Russia are too weak.

Thus, 60% of respondents believe that currently Russia's positions in negotiations as regards gas issues look stronger, 17% - quite equal, and only 6% think that Ukraine's positions are stronger. 18% - are undecided on this issue.

Interestingly, Russia's positions are believed to be the strongest in the North - exactly where people complain about inflated gas prices for Ukraine the most.

Accordingly, only 26% of Ukrainian respondents believe that Ukraine will soon be able to convince Russia to reduce gas prices, 53% - do not believe this. 21% - have not decided on the matter.

Supporters of the Party of Regions have the strongest belief that Ukraine will soon convince Russia to reduce gas prices (41% - believe this, 37% - do not believe this). Although, in general, both in the West and in Donbas 27% of respondents have little faith in the success of negotiations, and 47% do not believe in the success of negotiations at all.

If Russia refuses to lower gas prices, Ukraine, according to 44% of respondents, should develop its own gas reserves, including shale, 37% - look for other gas suppliers, 32% - switch to alternative types of energy, 31% - increase prices for the transit of Russian gas to Europe.

Somewhat fewer respondents believe that Ukraine should encourage economical energy consumption by industrial consumers (26%) and population (21%), increase the rent for the disposition of the Russian Fleet in the Crimea (23%), invite Europe into negotiations (20%), shorten the term of disposition of the Russian fleet in the Crimea (15%), cancel the gas contract with Russia in international courts (12%).

There are also suggestions to restrict the import of Russian goods to Ukraine (9%), to refuse from granting Russian the status of the state language (7%), to promote cooperation with NATO (5%), to announce the withdrawal from the CIS (4%), other suggestions (2%).

Importantly, if the price for Russian gas is reduced as a result of negotiations, up to 48% of Ukrainians can improve their attitude to the Russian government, and 51% - to the Ukrainian government. It is equally declared in all regions.

However, if the price for Russian gas increases as a result of negotiations, up to 44% of Ukrainians may worsen their attitude to the Russian government and 48% - to the Ukrainian government. In the East and in Donbas the attitude to the Ukrainian government may deteriorate significantly more than to the Russian government.

Naturally, Ukrainians impose greater political responsibility for gas negotiations on the government of their own country.

Interestingly, no more than 60% of Ukrainians are familiar with the statement of the President of Ukraine V. Yanukovich on the 3d of September 2011 in Dushanbe:

"Any pressure in gas negotiations with Russia is humiliating. And we will not tolerate being talked to like that... first they drove us into a corner - then began dictating terms. It demeans the state today, and I can not allow this. "

Thus, only 14% are well informed, 21% - know about this in general, 22% - had heard something, but not much.

However, almost 40% - have not heard anything about it. Respondents in the North, in the East and in the West of Ukraine are the most informed.

60% of respondents (those who had heard something about this statement) liked this statement of V. Yanukovych and only 22% - did not like it. The statement of the President was the most appreciated in the West, the least - in the South. For the first time, V. Yanukovych’s statement was almost equally liked by supporters of both the Party of Regions, and Freedom.

However, after this statement the majority of respondents (63%) have not changed their attitude to the President of Ukraine, 17% - have improved their attitude and only 8% - have worsened it. Supporters of the Party of Regions have improved their attitude to V. Yanukovych the most; supporters of UDAR, the CPU, and the Front for Change – almost half as much. Even though 70% of supporters of Freedom and a half of supporters of Batkivshchyna liked V. Yanukovych’s statement, as a result none of them improved their attitude to the President.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2,2%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,3. The period of completion: 17-27 of September 2011

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.

Other research: