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Мониторинг электоральных настроений украинцев

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians

Date posted: 08.08.2018 Print Full version

•    According to the results of the research carried out by the Sociological Group “Rating”, at the moment, the respondents are not acquainted with the plans of the main candidates in the case of being elected as the president (45% to 65% of the polled are not acquainted with the plans of the candidates).

•    A relatively higher level of awareness is demonstrated in relation to the plans of Yulia Tymoshenko (46%, 15% of them know a lot about the candidate's plans, 18% - are partly acquainted, and 14% - know very little).

•    Somewhat lower level of awareness is shown in terms of the program initiatives of Oleh Lyashko (39%) and Petro Poroshenko (36%). Almost 60% of the respondents do not know anything about the plans of Yuriy Boyko and Anatoliy Hrytsenko. Two-thirds of the polled do not know anything about the plans of Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Svyatoslav Vakarchuk. As a rule, older voters are relatively better acquainted with the candidates’ plans. On the other hand, young people are better informed about the plans of Vakarchuk and Zelenskiy.

•    Almost a half of the polled are definitely inclined to vote in the presidential elections, and every fifth is more likely than not.

•    Yulia Tymoshenko remains the leader of the presidential rating - 17.7% of those who will vote and have already decided on their choice are ready to support her. 10.7% are ready to give their votes for A.Hrytsenko, Y.Boyko - 8.9%, O.Lyashko - 8.5%, P.Poroshenko - 8.3%, V.Zelenskiy and S.Vakarchuk - 8.0% each, V.Rabynovich - 5.9%. The rating of other candidates is less than 3%. Almost every fifth has not decided on the choice.

•    Tymoshenko has strong electoral positions in almost all macro-regions with relatively higher indicators in the West, Center, and South. The main electoral base of Hrytsenko is currently also more concentrated in the Western and Central regions, while in other regions of the country his positions are weaker. Poroshenko is supported more or less equally in all macro-regions except for the East, Lyashko - in the South and Center, Vakarchuk - in the West. The number of the voters of Boyko, Rabynovich, and Zelenskiy is relatively higher in the East and South, with the difference that Boyko and Rabynovich are relatively more supported in the East while Zelenskiy - in the South.

•    Referring the indicators of so-called “second choice”, V.Zelenskiy (8.0%), Y.Tymoshenko (7.5%), A.Hrytsenko (6.1%), S.Vakarchuk (5.7%), and О.Lyashko (4.8%) have a relatively better electoral potential. Under certain conditions, 3.7% of the respondents could vote for V.Rabynovich, 3.4% - for Y.Boyko, 3.1% - P.Poroshenko.

•    Antirating is still headed by P.Poroshenko: a half of the respondents would not vote for him in any case. 26-29% would not support in any case Y.Tymoshenko, O.Lyashko, and A.Yatsenyuk; O.Tyahnybok - 18%, Y.Boyko - 17%, V.Rabynovich - 15%, V.Zelenskiy - 13%, S.Vakarchuk  - 11%.

•    16% of the polled believe that the next president will be Yulia Tymoshenko, 12.7% - Petro Poroshenko. Other 6.7% think that Yuriy Boyko will become the president, 4.7% - Volodymyr Zelenskiy, 3.7% - Oleh Lyashko, 3.4% - Anatoliy Hrytsenko, 2.9% - Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, 1,9% - Vadym Rabynovich. Almost 40% of the respondents could not predict who would be the next president of the country. Along with that, over the last few months, confidence indicators regarding the victory of Y.Tymoshenko at the presidential elections have increased (from 10% to 16%), regarding P. Poroshenko victory – have decreased (from 15% to 13%).

•    The intentions to participate in parliamentary elections are somewhat weaker - 46% are definitely inclined to vote, every fifth is more likely than not.

•    The party rating is headed by Batkivshchyna - 19.5% of those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice are ready to support this force. The second position is shared by Opposition Bloc, Civic Position, and "Sluha Narodu" party - about 11% are ready to vote for them. 7.2% intend to give their votes for the party “Za Zhyttia”, Radical Party - 7.0%, BPP Solidarnist - 6.5%, Samopomich - 4.3%, Svoboda - 4.1%, Agrarian Party - 2.5%. The rating of other parties is less than 2%. Almost every sixth has not decided on the choice.

•    Batkivshchyna, Opposition Bloc, Civic Position, Za Zhyttia, and BPP Solidarnist are more supported by the middle-aged and older respondents. The party "Sluha Narodu" is currently more supported by the young people.

•    Batkivshchyna and BPP Solidarnist have relatively better indicators in all macro-regions of the country except for the Eastern regions; Civic position is better supported in the West and Center. Opposition bloc and “Za Zhyttia” have the strongest positions in the South and East of the country, Radical Party and “Sluha Narodu" - in the Center and South, Samopomich and Svoboda - in the West.

Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 2000 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 2.2%. Period of the survey: 20 July – 3 August 2018

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