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Мониторинг электоральных настроений украинцев  (12-16 апреля 2019)

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians (12-16 April, 2019)

Date posted: 18.04.2019 Print Full version

 • According to the survey conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” based on the outcomes of the second week of April, 2019, the respondents’ answers to the question "Whom will you vote for in the second round of the Presidential elections?" are as follows: 52% would vote for V.Zelensky, 19% - for P.Poroshenko. 19% have not decided, 10% do not intend to vote. Among those who intend to vote in the second round: 58% - for V.Zelensky, 22% - for P.Poroshenko. 20% have not decided. Among those who intend to vote in the second round and have decided on the choice: 73% - for V.Zelensky, 27% - for P.Poroshenko.

V.Zelensky overcomes his competitor within all age categories. He is also the leader among the residents of the East, South, and Center. At the same time, in the West, the positions of both candidates are almost equal just as it was earlier.
 
62% of the polled believe that V.Zelensky will become the next President of Ukraine; 17% think the same about P.Poroshenko. 22% have not decided on the answer. Among the electoral groups of candidates who gained significant results during the first round, the relative majority is convinced that V.Zelensky will become the next Head of the State. Among the sympathizers of P.Poroshenko, half is convinced of the victory of their favorite, while somewhat more than a quarter believes that V.Zelensky will win.
 
Answering a clarifying question about the level of confidence in making choice and participation in voting, 72% of those who intend to take part in the second round expressed their full confidence in their choice and desire to come to the polls on April 21, 2019. 22% said that, although not sure of the choice, they would still come and vote. Only 2% indicated that they were not sure of the choice and probably would not vote. The overall mobilization of voters of both candidates who entered the second round is over 80%.
 
48% of the polled expect the situation in the country will improve as a result of the presidential elections. 25% have no expectations for changes at all, and 10% are looking for worsening. The number of those who believe in the optimistic scenario of post-election development is relatively higher among the residents of the South and East, younger respondents, and voters of V.Zelensky.
 
Half of the polled believe that the new team of the President of Ukraine should be given at least one year to demonstrate positive results. Despite this, a quarter aspires to see the achievements in 6 months, 14% want to see them in 3 months, 8% are waiting for immediate changes. Among young respondents and residents of the South and Center, the number of those who are ready to wait the whole year or more to see the achievements of the future Head of the State is somewhat higher.
 
76% of the respondents state that the situation when their relatives or friends support another candidate is quite normal for these elections. Despite this, 9% consider this to be a mistake, while they said they would not try to influence the choice. The same number mentioned that they would try to convince their relatives/friends to change their mind. The number of the latter is the highest among the supporters of P.Poroshenko (22%).
 
28% of the polled are convinced that these elections are more likely to unite the country, despite the fact that 24% believe that the country’s division has intensified on the contrary. Meanwhile, one-third of the respondents claim that these presidential elections have not neither divided nor united Ukraine. The highest number of those who notice consolidation processes is recorded among the supporters of V.Zelensky (38%), while every fifth of them still sees the possibility of division. On the other hand, among the sympathizers of P.Poroshenko, one-third perceive elections as division, and only 17% as consolidation.
 
 
Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 3000 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 1.8%. Period of the survey: 12-16 April, 2019

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