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Мониторинг электоральных настроений украинцев (5-10 апреля 2019 )

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians (5-10 April, 2019)

Date posted: 11.04.2019 Print Full version

 • According to the survey conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” based on the outcomes of the first week of April, 2019, about 30% of the polled believe things in Ukraine are moving in the right direction, 55% share the opposite opinion. After the first round of the presidential elections, positive assessments of the direction of the country's development have almost doubled. The residents of the West and Center of the country are more optimistic while assessing the situation in the country.

83% of the respondents believe that the country needs radical changes today. Only 6% are convinced that it’s better to let everything remain as it is, unless it doesn’t get worse, and 7% support the return to the past. Expectations of radical changes dominate among the representatives of all regional, age, and electoral groups.
 
52% of the polled expect the situation in the country will improve as a result of the presidential elections. After the first round of the presidential elections, positive expectations have increased by 1.5 times. Despite this, 25% have no expectations for changes, and 7% are looking for worsening. The number of those who believe in the optimistic scenario of post-election development is relatively higher among the residents of the South, younger respondents, and voters of V.Zelensky.
 
Answers to the question "Whom will you vote for in the second round of the Presidential elections?" were as follows: 51% would vote for V.Zelensky, 21% - for P.Poroshenko. 18% have not decided, 10% do not intend to vote. Among those who intend to vote in the second round: 61% - for V.Zelensky, 24% - for P.Poroshenko. 15% have not decided. Among those who intend to vote in the second round and have decided on the choice: 71% - for V.Zelensky, 29% - for P.Poroshenko.
 
V.Zelensky overcomes his competitor within all age categories. He is also the leader among the residents of the East, South, and Center. At the same time, in the West, the positions of both candidates are almost equal.
 
61% of the polled believe that V.Zelensky will become the next President of Ukraine; 17% think the same about P.Poroshenko. 22% have not decided on the answer. Among the electoral groups of candidates who gained significant results in the first round, the relative majority is convinced that V.Zelensky will become the next Head of the State. Among the sympathizers of P.Poroshenko, half is convinced of the victory of their favorite, while a quarter believes that V.Zelensky will win.
 
Analysis of the dynamics of key reasons for supporting candidates in the 2nd round of the presidential elections indicates an increase in the protest voting among the voters of both candidates.
 
Thus, 75% of the voters who are ready to support P.Poroshenko in the second round vote rather for him, while 22% vote rather against V.Zelensky (12% in February). At the same time, 57% of the voters who are ready to support V.Zelensky in the second round vote rather for him, while 41% vote rather against P.Poroshenko (33% in February).
 
Moreover, 31% of the polled believe that those choosing P.Poroshenko vote specifically for the personality, while 26% vote against V.Putin in this way. The latter position is more typical for voters in the West. Among the voters of P.Poroshenko, almost 40% vote not so much for P.Poroshenko as against V.Putin.
 
20% of the respondents believe that those choosing V.Zelensky vote more specifically for the personality, while 66% protest against the current situation in the country in such a way (50% in February). This, in fact, is accepted by the voters of P.Poroshenko as well. Even among the voters of V.Zelensky, about 60% of the voices express primarily protest against the current situation in the country.
 
82% of the polled indicated that they had not personally faced bribes during this presidential election campaign. On the other hand, 17% said they had had the following experience: 8% - in person, 9% - heard about such facts from relatives and friends.
 
39% of the respondents indicated that they expected significant falsifications in the 2nd round of the presidential elections on April 21, 2019. 37% believe that falsifications will be insignificant, and only 14% do not expect any falsifications during the elections at all. The greatest number of those who do expect significant falsifications was recorded among the residents of the South and East of the country.
 
 
Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 3000 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 1.8%. Period of the survey: 5-10 April, 2019

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