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Мониторинг электоральных настроений украинцев (9-15 марта 2019)

MONITORING OF ELECTORAL MOODS OF UKRAINIANS (March 9-15, 2019)

Date posted: 19.03.2019 Print Full version

 • According to the results of the survey carried out by the Sociological Group “Rating” at the beginning of the March, 69% of the respondents believe things in Ukraine are going in the wrong direction; 16% have the opposite opinion. Over the last month, the number of those who negatively assess the state of things in the state has somewhat increased.

84% of the polled to some extent declare their willingness to take part in the presidential elections on March 31, 2019. The highest level of definite readiness to come to the polling stations is observed among the residents of the West, the oldest respondents, the voters of P.Poroshenko, R.Koshulinsky, and I.Smeshko.
 
Among the factors that may prevent voting at the polling stations, the most important for the respondents are possible provocations, queues at the polling stations, and information about electoral bribing - these factors received 2.1, 2.0, and 1.9 points (the assessment was carried out based on 5-point scale, where 1 mean “will not prevent at all”, and 5 – “will prevent significantly”). Bad weather conditions (1.7) and the availability of leisure plans (1.8) are less important factors.
 
The leader of the presidential rating at the end of the second week of March remains V.Zelensky, who is supported by 24.9% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Y.Tymoshenko takes the second place (18.8%), P. Poroshenko – the third (17.4%). 10.2% of the respondents are ready to give their votes for Y.Boyko, 9.4% - for A.Hrytsenko, 5.8% - O.Lyashko, 3.5% - O.Vilkul, 3.1% - I.Smeshko, 2,2% - R.Koshulinsky. Over the last week, the electoral positions of the leaders have not changed significantly.
 
Every sixth respondent has not decided on the candidate's choice. It is important that most of those are recorded among the poorest voters, rural residents, and women.
 
V.Zelensky has the strongest electoral positions in the Southern and Eastern regions and in the Center of the country. Y.Tymoshenko and P.Poroshenko - in the Center and West, A.Hrytsenko - in the West, and Y.Boyko - in the East. Moreover, V.Zelensky is the leader of electoral sympathies in the cities, Y.Tymoshenko - in the villages. V.Zelensky is the leader of sympathies among young and middle-aged people, Y.Tymoshenko - among the older voters. While V.Zelensky, P.Poroshenko, and A.Hrytsenko are relatively more supported by men, Yulia Tymoshenko gains higher support of women.
 
Anti-rating of candidates is headed by P.Poroshenko. Almost half of the voters would not vote for him under any circumstances. About 30% would not give their votes for Y.Tymoshenko, for Y.Boyko - 19%, O.Lyashko - 17%, V.Zelensky - 13%, O.Vilkul - 12%.
 
20.8% of the respondents believe the next president will be P.Poroshenko. 19.5% believe in the victory of V.Zelensky, 18.6% - in the victory of Y.Tymoshenko. Thus, according to this indicator, the race leaders are almost equal. 3% of the voters believe in the victory of Y.Boyko and A.Hrytsenko. Over the last month, the faith in V.Zelensky has increased. On the other hand, P.Poroshenko has somewhat lost considering this indicator.
 
Simulation of the second round revealed the following results: Y.Tymoshenko holds the championship in the pair with P.Poroshenko (28% vs. 19%). At the same time, V.Zelensky wins in the pairs with P.Poroshenko (39% vs. 19%), Y.Tymoshenko (35% vs. 22%), and A.Hrytsenko (34% vs. 26%).
 
The leader of the parliamentary rating is “Sluha Narodu” party - 22.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support this force. Support for Batkyvshchyna is 19.1%, for BPP Solidarnist – 15.8%, Opposition Platform - 10.2%, Civic Position – 7.9%, Radical Party – 6.1%, Svoboda - 3.6%, Opposition Bloc and Samopomich – 3.2% each. The rest of the parties have less than 2% of support.
 
Almost quarter has not yet decided on the choice of political party. Over the last month, positions of the leaders have strengthened. Considering the dynamics, the highest growth was demonstrated by Civic Position and BPP Solidarnist, while Samopomich has suffered losses.
 
 
Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 2500 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 2.0%. Period of the survey: March 9-15, 2019.

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