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Мониторинг электоральных настроений украинцев: январь 2019

Monitoring of Electoral Moods of Ukrainians: January 2019

Date posted: 31.01.2019 Print Full version

 • According to the results of the research carried out by the Sociological Group “Rating” in January, 2019, almost 70% of the respondents believe that the country needs radical changes. Only 12% are ready to let everything remain as it is today, and 14% stand for a return to the past. The demand for radical changes is relatively high (about 70%) in the majority of the regions. A relatively lower request for changes was recorded in the East (62%) and Donbas (52%). In the latter macro-region, a quarter of the polled feel nostalgia about the past, and every fifth does not seek for changes as they might cause the worsening.

Over the last year, the voters’ mobilization has increased. 44% of the polled indicated their definite intention to take part in the elections of the President of Ukraine, 35% are rather ready to participate. At the same time, the number of those who believe that their vote would not decide anything in the elections has decreased (from 47% to 40%).

Leaders of the presidential rating are V.Zelensky, supported by 19.0% of those who have decided and intend to vote, and Yulia Tymoshenko, supported by 18.2% of those polled. 15.1% are ready to give their votes for P.Poroshenko, Y.Boyko - 10.0%, A.Hrytsenko - 8.5%, O.Lyashko - 7.0%, Y.Murayev - 3.6%, О.Shevchenko - 2.9%, A.Sadoviy - 2.7%, O.Vilkul - 2.6%.
 
Over the last month, the ratings of V.Zelensky and P.Poroshenko have increased significantly. A slight decrease has occurred at the level of support for Yulia Tymoshenko. The electoral indicators of other candidates have not undergone significant changes.
 
V.Zelensky has relatively higher electoral indicators among the voters in the South and East; in Kyiv he shares the primacy with P.Poroshenko, in Donbas - with Y.Boyko. Y.Tymoshenko leads in the Center and North; in the West she shares the leadership with the acting Head of the state. The latter is the leader among Galicia voters.
 
V.Zelensky is the candidate who has the highest potential of electoral growth (so-called "second choice"). 7.4% of the voters are ready to support him, provided their favorites do not participate in the elections. Y.Tymoshenko and A.Hrytsenko could have been supported by 6% of those polled each, Y.Boyko, O.Lyashko - by 5% each, Y.Murayev, A.Sadoviy, O.Shevchenko - by 4% each, O.Vilkul - 3 %, P.Poroshenko and V.Nalivaychenko - 2% each.
 
23% of the polled believe that Yulia Tymoshenko will become the next president. 16,3% believe in the victory of P.Poroshenko, 10,3% - V. Zelensky. Recently, the faith in the victory of V.Zelensky has considerably increased. The indicators of Y.Tymoshenko and P.Poroshenko also reveal the positive dynamics in terms of this rating. The victory of Yulia Tymoshenko is believed in almost all macro-regions of the country except Galicia and Kyiv, where the respondents are more likely to think the next president will be P.Poroshenko.
 
Anti-rating is headed by P.Poroshenko: almost a half of the polled said they would not vote for him under any circumstances. 31% of the polled indicated that they would not cast their votes for Yulia Tymoshenko, a quarter - for Y.Boyko, and every fifth - for A.Yatsenyuk and O.Lyashko.
 
The simulation of the second round revealed the following results: Y.Tymoshenko holds the championship within the pairs with P.Poroshenko (27% vs. 18%) and Y.Boyko (28% vs. 18%). At the same time, she gives up somewhat to V.Zelensky (29% vs. 24%). V.Zelensky also wins within the pairs with P.Poroshenko (34% vs. 20%) and Y.Boyko (33% vs. 17%). Considering the pair Y.Boyko - P.Poroshenko, the acting President leads with a minor difference (23% vs. 21%). It is important that considering the above-mentioned options of possible couples, more than one-third of the respondents stated their non-participation in the elections, 16-19% - have not yet decided on their preferences.
 
67% of the respondents said that Ukraine needed a leader who could unite, reconcile, and reassure the society. 24% stand for a leader who is prone to dictatorship and tough management to maintain order. The latter expectations are relatively higher among the voters of O.Lyashko and Y.Boyko.
 
43% continue to see the country's leader as a politician with experience in the country governance, while 45% believe that a new person should become the president, even despite the lack of experience in public administration. The request for the renewal of power is most often observed among the voters of V.Zelensky, S.Varkarchuk, R.Koshulinskyi, O.Shevchenko, and Y.Murayev. Instead, the voters of Y.Tymoshenko, P.Poroshenko, and Y.Boyko, first of all, tend to vote for their experience.
 
47% state that young people without negative experience in leading positions, not seen in corruption and abuse, should work in the government. On the other hand, 43% believe that senior management positions should be occupied by experienced professionals. As in the previous question, the request for experience prevails among the voters of P.Poroshenko, Y.Tymoshenko, and Y.Boyko. The opposite thesis gains the support of "new" politicians’ voters.
 
The level of satisfaction with the activities of the acting President has somewhat increased over the recent months, while the assessments of the heads of Government and Parliament have worsened. 15% are satisfied with the activities of the President P.Poroshenko, 80% - dissatisfied. The activities of the Prime Minister V.Hroysman are approved by 12%, 81% are dissatisfied with them. 5% are satisfied with the performance of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, 90% - dissatisfied.
 
The number of those who believe the President is the most responsible for addressing the country's problems has been growing: in September 2017, there were 49% of them, these days - 57%. 16% consider the Prime Minister to be responsible for the situation in the country, the same number tend to blame the Verkhovna Rada. The voters of P.Poroshenko are more likely to transfer the responsibility to the Parliament.
 
Almost a half of the respondents believe that the oligarchs (48%) and the President (45%) are those who slow down the positive changes in the country the most. At the same time, the latter indicator has increased from 40% to 45% over the year. One-third is convinced that the Cabinet of Ministers is guilty of a slow pace of changes (the figure has also increased from 29% to 32%), 22% think the same about the coalition in the Parliament (the indicator has decreased from 29% to 22%), 18% tend to blame Russia, 16% - the opposition in the Parliament, 12% - the International Monetary Fund.
 
71% of the respondents believe that the state authorities are weak these days. 17% think the opposite. The number of the latter is the highest in Galicia and among the voters of P.Poroshenko. It is noteworthy that over the last 3.5 years, the indicator of the authorities’ "power" has grown by only 4 percentage points (from 13% to 17%).  
 
A half of the polled believe that these days the acting authorities experience lack of honesty the most. One-third thinks the same of efficiency, humanity, or population support, a quarter – of professionalism and competence, 13-15% - credibility and managerial experience. Over the last 3.5 years, the demand for humanity and support of the population has increased, while in terms of efficiency and professionalism it has decreased somewhat.
 
The respondents tend to assess the progress of the Armed Forces reform, the information space Ukrainianization, and the Police reform relatively better. The lowest rates were given to the anti-corruption and judicial reforms, electoral legislation changes, de-oligarchy, parliamentary immunity abolition, and the adoption of legislation on the impeachment of the President. Compared to the last year, the rates of the progress considering the Armed Forces reform, Ukrainianization, decentralization, education and healthcare reforms, fight against corruption, and judicial reform have improved. Instead, the rates with regard to the pension reform have worsened.
 
The relative majority of the respondents places the responsibility for carrying out most of the reforms on either the Government or the Parliament. Exceptions are the Armed Forces reform, de-oligarchy, and anti-corruption reforms – considering these aspects, the respondents believe the Head of the State to be more responsible.
 
Since October, 2018, the number of those who support the provision of Tomos on autocephaly to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church has increased up to 51%. 21% do not support this initiative, 20% are indifferent. The lowest level of support was recorded among the residents of the South, East, and Donbas. At the same time, every third to fourth respondent residing in these macro-regions feel indifferent to this undertaking.
 
There has been a gradual increase in the number of those who consider it important for them to live in a democratic state: these days, 40% definitely support this thesis. There are no more than 10% of those who do not care about this issue. Demand for democratic values is the highest among the residents of the capital and Galicia, the lowest - in the Donbas.
 
Almost 70% of the respondents support the introduction of a mechanism for adoption of state decisions in Ukraine through the all-Ukrainian referendum. 47% believe that voting on it can be done only by the method of personal appearance in the polling station; on the other hand, 10% support electronic voting using mobile means of communication or the Internet, one-third stand for combined voting methods, both electronic and at polling stations. The electronic voting method is more popular among the younger age groups.
 
64% support the thesis that the Ukrainian language should be the only state language, 15% stand for granting the Russian language with the official status in certain regions, 15% support bilingualism at the state level. The level of support for providing the Russian language with any status is the highest among the residents of the South, East, and Donbas. 
 
Almost 60% support diplomatic ways of resolving the war on the Donbas (37% stand for the hostilities termination and conflict freezing, 22% - for granting these territories with an independent or federative status in Ukraine). Only 7% support full separation of the occupied territories. On the other hand, 18% support the continuation of hostilities until the full restoration of Ukrainian authorities throughout the Donbas. The support for the latter thesis is relatively higher among the residents of the Western regions and the capital, voters of R.Koshulinskyi and P.Poroshenko. At the same time, 68% of the polled still believe Russia to be an aggressor country for Ukraine, 20% share the opposite opinion. The highest number of those who support the latter thesis was recorded in the Donbas.
 
Support for the pro-Western vector remains prevailing in Ukraine: 46% support the NATO membership (32% stand against), 50% - the EU integration (30% support the equidistance from Russia and the West, 9% stand for the Customs Union integration). The number of supporters of the pro-Western path of development of Ukraine prevails in all regions of the country, except for the Southern and Eastern regions and the Donbas.
 
 
Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 6000 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 1.3%. Period of the survey: 16-24 January 2019

 

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