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Настроения и ожидания украинцев: региональные особенности

Moods and Expectations of the Ukrainians: Regional Specifics

Date posted: 22.02.2018 Print Full version

 • According to the results of the research carried out by the Sociological group "Rating", 59% of the polled believe the country needs radical changes. 15% support the idea that it is better to leave everything as it is now so it doesn't get any worse; the same number stands for the return of the things how they used to be. The highest number of those who favor radical changes has been recorded among the residents of Galicia, while the highest number of those who support the return to the past times has been observed among the citizens of non-occupied Donbas, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhia oblasts. At the same time, even here, the radical changes’ expectations dominate significantly over the other moods.

A quarter of the respondents expect that their households’ situation will improve in the next five years. 37% think it will not change, 18% expect for the worsening, and 21% could not assess the prospects of their families in the future. The highest number of those who are optimistic towards their households’ situation has been recorded in the Western oblasts and capital area (Kyiv and oblast). At the same time, the optimistic trend still is not dominant here: at least a half believes that their households’ situation either will not change or will worsen.
 
The military conflict in the East of Ukraine is considered to be the most important issue for the country (75%). Almost a half thinks the same about the bribery and corruption of the authorities. 28% believe unemployment  to be the most important problem of the country, 19% - increase of the goods’ prices and low salaries and pensions, 17% - social stratification and the gap between poor and rich people, 15% - increase of the utilities’ tariffs and low level of social protection, 12% - increase of crime and inability to receive a high-quality medical care, 8% - unfavorable conditions for the development of small and medium business, only 6% - lack of freedom and democracy, 4% - inability to obtain a high-quality education.
 
On the other hand, on the personal level, the most important issues are low level of salaries and pensions (52%), increase of basic goods prices, inflation (51%), and increase of utilities’ tariffs (50%). Each fifth mentions as the personal problem the military conflict in the East of Ukraine, inability to receive a high-quality medical care, and unemployment. 14-15% believe to be their personal problems such issues as low level of social protection, bribery, and corruption, 11% - social stratification. Other problems personally concern less than 8% of the polled.
 
Over 90% of the respondents have rated the political situation in the country as critical or tense (33% and 59% respectively), only 3% - as calm. The high level of tension while assessing the domestic political situation has been recorded in all the oblasts of the country without any exception.
 
Despite a high level of social tension, the relative majority of the citizens stand not for radical but constructive ways to resolve the country’s crisis. Thus, 44% believe the reduction of social tension will most likely contribute to the launch of real criminal investigations of corruption within the country's the higher-level elite. 37% think the realization of the projects aimed at improving the financial situation and living conditions of people will help to reduce the tension, 35% believe this could be done through the real progress in Donbas (for example, cessation of hostilities, release of prisoners, etc.), 20% - through wider people’s involvement in public control over the authorities’ activities.
 
The leader of the presidential rating is Y.Tymoshenko – in case the elections were held in the nearest future, 18.7% of those who would take part in them and have decided on their choice are ready to support her. 15.6% of the polled are ready to support P.Poroshenko, Y.Boyko - 11.7%, A.Hrytsenko - 9.7%, O.Lyashko - 8.7%, V.Rabynovich - 8.3%, A.Sadovyi - 6.4%, O.Tyahnybok - 3.9%, A.Yatsenyuk - 1.7%. 15.3% of the polled are ready to support other candidates not mentioned in the list.
 
Y.Tymoshenko leads almost in all oblasts of the Center and partially in the West of the country. Moreover, she is among the top three leaders in almost all oblasts. P.Poroshenko has strong positions in part of the West and Kyiv city, Y.Boyko - in the majority of the Southern and Eastern oblasts.
 
The level of support for Y.Tymoshenko is more or less uniform in all oblasts of the Center, North, West, and partly South. P.Poroshenko is mostly supported in Vinnitsa, somewhat less in the oblasts of the West and Center, far less - in the South. Electoral base of A.Hrytsenko is partly West, Kyiv and Cherkasy oblasts. The highest level of support for O.Lyashko has been recorded in the North and in Bukovina, A.Sadovyi - in Galicia, Volyn, and Khmelnytsky. The support for V.Rabynovich and Y.Boyko is concentrated in the South and East; at the same time, the voters of the latter are more concentrated in the industrial oblasts of the East.
 
Modeling the second round of presidential elections in the pair of Y.Tymoshenko and P.Poroshenko has revealed the following results: 30% of those who would take part in the main elections are ready to vote for the leader of Batkyvshchyna; 23% are ready to support the head of the state in this case. 28% would not vote in the second round under such conditions, 19% - have not decided on their choice. P.Poroshenko would have won only in 3 oblasts (Vinnitsa, Khmelnytsky, and Chernivtsy); approximately the same number of the votes both candidates would have won in 5 regions - Rivne, Cherkasy, Kirovograd, and Donetsk oblasts and also Kyiv city. Yulia Tymoshenko would have won in the remaining 17 oblasts.
 
The pro-European vector is dominant in almost all regions of the country, except for Odessa, Kharkiv, and Donbas regions. In general, 52% of the respondents would have supported the EU integration if a referendum were held, 27% would vote against this initiative, 20% - have not decided or would not have participated in the referendum.
 
Over the last three years, the number of the NATO supporters has increased by one and a half times. Nowadays, 43% support joining the Alliance, while 34% -oppose it. Almost a quarter has not decided or would not have participated in the referendum in case it was held. Unlike the European integration, the support for the NATO membership is lower in the South and East. In terms of age, NATO is the most opposed by the oldest respondents.
 
One-third of the respondents regret the Soviet Union collapse in 1991, 55% do not have any nostalgia for the USSR. The highest number of those who miss the past times has been observed in the oblasts of the South and East, the lowest - in the West. In the regional context, the nostalgia for the USSR correlates with the number of those who do not support joining NATO.
 
The pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian vectors are clearly dominating in modern society. Thus, not less than a half of the respondents wanted their children to live in Ukraine; one-third would choose the European Union to be their place of residence, 7% - the United States, and only 2% - Russia. This trend is typical (with small variations) for the residents of all oblasts of Ukraine.
 
47% stated that they used the Ukrainian language for communication at home, 29% - both the Ukrainian and the Russian, 24% - the Russian, 1% - another language. The highest number of those who speak only Ukrainian at home has been recorded in the West, North, and Center (except for Kirovograd and Sumy oblasts and Kyiv city). The number of those who use Russian more has been observed in Odesa, Kharkiv, and Donbas regions. In other oblasts, both languages are used.
 
The number of supporters of the Ukrainian as a single state language has been constantly growing. Thus, 61% of the respondents think so (47% in 2014). 20% stand for granting the Russian language with the official status in some regions, and 15% - for granting the Russian language with the state status. Still, it should be noted that along with a steady decrease in the number of the Russian language state status supporters, the number of supporters of the Ukrainian as a single state language (without any other alternatives) has been increasing. The highest number of those who support granting the Russian with any status has been recorded in the Southern and Eastern oblasts.
 
43% of the polled believe Ukraine should become a great agricultural state; the same number supports the idea that it should develop high-tech sectors and industry. The supporters of the agrarian path of development are concentrated mostly in the West and Center, while the supporters of technological evolution - in the East, South, and capital city.
 
The permission on agricultural land sale gains no support in society today. 77% of the respondents stand against this initiative, only each tenth – support it, 13% - have not decided on the answer.
 
A half of the polled believe Ukraine should be a parliamentary-presidential republic, 17% - solely parliamentary, 14% - presidential, and 20% - have not decided on the answer.
 
Only 28% believe Ukraine today needs a dictatorship with a hard-line leader as the head of the state, 56% - stand against the dictatorship, 16% - have not decided.
 
Two-thirds support the unitary system of government, 19% - federal, the same number - not determined. The highest number of the federation supporters has been observed in Mykolayiv, Odessa, and Kharkiv oblasts. Nevertheless, the number of the unitary system supporters is still dominating here (42-43%).
 
Among the ways of solving the Donbas problem, the majority supports peaceful initiatives to resolve the situation, in particular, 32% of the polled stand for the termination of hostilities in the Donbas and recognition of these territories as temporarily occupied, 21% - for granting these territories with the federative status as part of Ukraine. Moreover, 8% support the separation of these territories from Ukraine, and almost each fifth (18%) have not decided on this issue. Along with that, 21% consider it necessary to continue military operations until the full restoration of Ukrainian authority in the occupied territories – the highest number of them has been recorded in the West and Center of the country. At the same time, it should be noted that despite this, peaceful initiatives to resolve the Donbas problem are also prevailing in these regions.
 
 
Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 30 000 respondents (1 200 per region). Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 0,6%. Period of the survey: 12-28 December 2017 

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