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Объединительные процессы на выборах 2012

Unification processes in elections 2012

Date posted: 05.03.2012 Print Full version

According to the research conducted by the Sociological group "Rating", none of the researched variants of unified registers have a cumulative effect – thus, "one by one" participation of parties in elections gives a better result than in a union.

The only variant of union, where the cumulative effect is almost achieved is THE UNIFIED REGISTER OF BATKIVSHCHYNA AND THE FRONT FOR CHANGE. 30% of voters are currently ready to support this union, while “one by one" the parties can receive 31% of the votes.
 
Only in the West such a union gives an increase in the number of supporters: 51% - "one by one" vs. 53% - "together".
 
The main problem is that supporters of the Front for Change have a worse attitude towards such a union (only 75% of supporters are ready to support the unified register) than supporters of Batkivshchyna (90%).
 
However, losses of the Front for Change are compensated with the help of overflows from Freedom, Civil Position, the European party and Our Ukraine. Also, up to 10% of "undecided" and "against all" are ready to support such a union.
 
Interestingly, the accession of Freedom to this union (Batkivshchyna + Front for Change) does not add any electoral value to it. 30% of voters are currently ready to support THE UNIFIED REGISTER OF BATKIVSHCHYNA AND THE FRONT FOR CHANGE, while "one by one" the parties can get up to 35% of the votes.
 
Only about 80% of all supporters of Batkivshchyna, 70% of supporters of the Front for Change and Freedom are ready to support this union. Importantly, both supporters of Batkivshchyna and supporters of the Front for Change are more cautious about the union of "three" than "two". At the same time, losses are compensated by minor overflows from Our Ukraine and the Ukrainian Social Democratic Party (up to 15%), Civil Position and the European Party (10%). Also, up to 10% "undecided" and 6% of "against all" are ready to support such a union.
 
Only in the West more people are willing to vote for the union of "three" (56%) rather than for the union of "two" (53%). In the North their potential ratings are the same (37%), and in the Center there is a significant loss: 31% support the union of Batkivshchyna + Front for Change, and only 25% support the union of Batkivshchyna + Front for Change + Freedom.
 
Thus, the annexation of Freedom is the most painfully apprehended in the Center and the degree of unreceptiveness is directly proportional to the increase in the degree of radicality of Freedom.
 
It should be noted that supporters of Batkivshchyna apprehend any union better than supporters of political parties - possible allies. There is a certain vulnerability, provoked by the lack of leadership, thus, the union can be perceived through the prism of searching for protection.
 
The cumulative effect is not achieved when the governing parties unite. 21% of respondents are now ready to vote for THE UNIFIED REGISTER of the Party of Regions, the People's Party and Strong Ukraine, while "one by one" the parties can get 23%.
 
Supporters of the Party of Regions feel the most confident under such circumstances (almost 90% of supporters are ready to support the unified register). However, this can not be said about other possible members: the People's Party (only 52%) and Strong Ukraine (only 64%). 10% of "undecided" are ready to vote for the union, which wins an advantage to it. Supporters of the CPU are totally passive - only 5% of them may vote for such a unified register. Such a union is the most promising for the East and for Donbas.
 
It should be noted that under all mentioned formats the majority of voters who currently do not support the union of their parties, do not change preferences, but rather become "undecided".
 
BELIEF IN UNIFICATION PROCESSES IN ELECTIONS 2012
 
Making the choice which party to vote for in elections 2012, 52% of respondents will rather vote against the course of the President V. Yanukovych, 22% - in support of the course of the President V. Yanukovych. Other 26% of respondents have not made their choice.
 
Thus, over one third of Donbas residents will vote in support of the course of the President V. Yanukovych, almost 30% - against. In other regions, the number of respondents who will likely vote against the course of the President V. Yanukovych exceeds the number of those who will vote in support of the course of the President. Residents of the West (74%), the North (69%) and the Center (56%) of Ukraine are the most radical.
 
Over 90% of supporters of  the Party of Regions, almost one half of supporters of Strong Ukraine and one quarter of supporters of the CPU will likely vote in support of the course of the President V. Yanukovych in elections 2012.
 
Moreover, about 90% of supporters of Batkivshchyna, Freedom and the Front for Change will vote against the course of the current head of state. Importantly, one half of "against all" and over a third of "undecided" adhere to a similar position.
 
In spite of a significant request of the community for the union of the opposition, the belief that these processes will take place is minor. Voters believe that pro-governmental parties are more likely to unite (53% - can unite against 24% - cannot unite) than oppositional parties (44% - can unite against 36% - cannot unite) in elections 2012.
 
Only a half of residents of the West and the North believe in the union of the opposition in elections. Instead, almost 60% of residents of the West believe in the union of pro-governmental parties. Residents of the East believe it the most (about 70%). Interestingly, in the South people believe neither in the union of oppositional parties nor in the union of pro-governmental parties. Supporters of Batkivshchyna believe in the union of the opposition most of all, and as for pro-governmental parties – supporters of the Party of Regions. Other voters are more cautious in their estimates. Among oppositional parties supporters of UDAR believe in the union of the opposition least of all, among pro-governmental parties - the CPU.
 
Despite a weak belief in the union, the willingness to support unified oppositional candidates is a lot higher than pro-governmental candidates.
 
Thus, 43% will rather vote for a unified oppositional candidate in the majority district, 34% - will not, 23% - are undecided.
 
Almost 90% of supporters of Batkivshchyna, more than 70% - of Front for Change and Freedom, nearly 60% - of UDAR and Civil Position can support unified oppositional candidates in majority districts. Most of all in the West (64%), in the North (56%) and in the Center (46%), also from one third in the East to one quarter in Donbas.
 
32% will likely vote for a unified pro-governmental candidate in the majority district, 46% - will not, 23% - are undecided.
 
About 40% of people in the East and in Donbas, about one third - in the South and in the Center, about a quarter - in the North and in the West can support unified pro-governmental candidates. Accordingly, over 90% of supporters of the Party of Regions, about 70% - of Strong Ukraine and People's Party and only a third – of the CPU, identify themselves neither with the government nor with the opposition.
 
 
The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 4000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 1.5%, for the values close to 30% – less than 1.3%, for the values close to 10% – less than 0.9. The period of completion: 10-24 of February 2012
 
The oblast’ distribution:
 
West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.

Other research: