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Общественно-политическая ситуация в Украине: декабрь 2013

The socio-political situation in Ukraine: December 2013

Date posted: 25.12.2013 Print

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: the quote sample of 3200 respondents (1600 respondents for each of the sociological centers) in all regions of Ukraine. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face) in a residence of the respondent. Margin of error (confidence interval): not more than 1,8%. The period of completion: 7 – 17 of December 2013.

According to a survey conducted by the Center of Social and Marketing Research "SOCIS" and Sociological group "RATING" in December 2013, 49,1% of respondents would vote for Ukraine's accession to the European Union in a referendum, would vote against 29,6%. Another 21,3% didn’t decide or aren't ready to participate in such referendum. Among those who decided the number of supporters of the EU is 62,4%.

If the referendum concerning the entry of Ukraine in the Customs Union was in the nearest future, 32,5% of Ukrainian citizens would support such union, 41,9% would vote against. Yet 25,6% aren't defined or aren't ready to participate in such referendum.

After the end of November in Ukraine hasn’t signed the Association Agreement with the EU the attitude to Ukrainian President V. Yanukovych has worsened at 45,7% of respondents. In turn, among 15,7% of respondents the attitude to the President improved. Attitude hasn’t changed at 36,4%. Another 3,1% didn’t decide.

Only 1,8% of respondents estimate the present political situation in Ukraine as "stable". At the same time 46,1% regard it as "intense", and 49,4% as "explosive".

The half of Ukrainians (49,7%) in case of considerable deterioration of living conditions are ready to go outside with a protest. In turn, 28,5% are ready to suffer material and other difficulties for the saving the order in the country. Another 21,8% didn't decide with the answer to this question.

According to the majority of respondents the civil activity of the population (Maidan) can affect the current situation in Ukraine. Thus 41,3% consider it influence as significant and 29,8% as insignificant. The same time almost every fifth respondent (18%) considers that civil activity of the population won't affect all a situation in the state. Another 11% didn't decide with the answer to this question.

42% of respondents have the positive attitude to the fact that in Kiev and many other cities of Ukraine after the refusal to sign an Association Agreement with the EU, people go out and organized protests. 35,6% of respondents have the negative attitude, 15,4% are neutral. Another 7% didn't decide with the answer to this question or they don’t care for it.

44,7% of respondents have the negative attitude to the fact that during these protests the administrative buildings are/were blocked (the Administration of the President, the Verkhovna Rada, the Cabinet of Ministers, KCSA, etc). The positive attitude have 24,9% respondents, the neutral have 15,4%. Another 11,8% didn't decide with the answer to this question or they don’t care for it.

However the vast majority of respondents 73,6% have the negative attitude to meeting dispersal in Kiev by special unit "Berkut" on the night of November 30. The positive attitude towards this have only 9% , the neutral – 11,2%. Another 6,2% didn't decide with the answer to this question or they don’t care for it.

The relation of respondents to the main requirements of opposition and Evromaydan to authorities in power is mainly positive. Thus,

The resignation of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Zaharchenko support 53,3% of the respondents, do not support – 30,8%. Undecided – 15,9%.
The resignation of the current government headed by Azarov support 50,9% of the respondents, do not support – 37,9%. Undecided – 11,3%.
Early elections of the President of Ukraine support 46% of the respondents, do not support – 42%. Undecided – 12%.
Early elections of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine support 46,1% of the respondents, do not support – 40,8%. Undecided – 13,2%.
The responsibility for resolving the existing political crisis in Ukraine the respondents lay primarily on the President (41,5%), civil society (32,6%) and the opposition parties (29,3%). Another 19,1% indicated that the main driving force to overcome the political crisis should be the new leaders, 17,3% -the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and 7% - journalists and media representatives. Undecided on this issue 10,4% of respondents.

The vast majority of respondents (72,6%) support the idea of ​​a round table and the negotiations between the government and the opposition to resolve the contradictions and the political crisis in Ukraine. Don’t support the idea about the negotiation process – 13,9%. Another 13,4% didn’t decide.

ELECTORAL PREFERENCES THE CITIZENS OF UKRAINE

If the presidential elections were held in Ukraine next Sunday, 20,2% (among all respondents) would support V. Yanukovych, 18,6% V. Klitschko. Another 9,4% - A. Yatseniuk, 7,1% P. Poroshenko, 5,1% - O. Tyagnibok, 4,5% - P. Symonenko, 0,9% - V. Medvedchuk. Other candidates would support 4,7% of respondents. Would not participate in the elections – 14,7%, didn’t decide – 14,9% .

In this case, if Y. Tymoshenko could take part in the elections, the support for candidates would look as follows: V. Yanukovych – 20,1% (among all respondents), Y. Tymoshenko – 16,6%, V. Klitschko – 16,2%, P. Poroshenko – 5,7%, P. Symonenko – 4,5%, O. Tyahnibok – 3,9%, V. Medvedchuk – 0,9%. Other candidates would support 3,6% of respondents. Would not participate in the elections – 14,7%, didn’t decide – 13,9%.

If in the second round of the presidential election there were V. Yanukovych and V. Klitschko, for the acting head of the state would vote 25,2% (among all respondents) and for V. Klitschko - 42,7%. Thus, 19,6% - wouldn't take part in the second round of elections and 12,5% - didn’t decide. The result of the second round among those who will participate in elections and decided on a choice would make 63,3% on 36,7% in favor of V. Klitschko.

If in the second round of the presidential election there were V. Yanukovych and A. Yatsenyuk, for V. Yanukovych would vote 25,8% (among all respondents) and for A. Yatsenyuk - 35%. Thus, 24,4% - wouldn't take part in the second round of elections, and 14,8% - didn’t decide. The result of the second round is 58,2% on 41,8% in favor of A. Yatsenyuk.

If in the second round of the presidential election there were V. Yanukovych and P. Poroshenko, for V. Yanukovych would vote  25% (among all respondents) and for P. Poroshenko - 33%. Thus, 25,7% - wouldn't take part in the second round of elections, and 16,3% - didn’t decide. The result of the second round is 57,5% on 42,5% in favor of P. Poroshenko.

If in the second round of the presidential election there were V. Yanukovych and Y. Tymoshenko, for V. Yanukovych would vote 26,6% (among all respondents) and for Y. Tymoshenko - 32,1%. Thus, 25,8% - wouldn't take part in the second round of elections, and 15,5% - didn’t decide. The result of the second round is 55,8% on 44,2% in favor of Y. Tymoshenko.

If in the second round of the presidential election there were V. Yanukovych and O. Tyagnibok, for V. Yanukovych would vote 27,1% (among all respondents) and for O. Tyagnibok - 28,8%. Thus, 27,6% - wouldn't take part in the second round of elections, and 16,5% - didn’t decide. The result of the second round is 52,9 on 47,1 in favor of O. Tyagnibok.

If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in the nearest future, the parties support would look as follows: Party of regions – 20,2% (among all respondents), Batkivshchyna – 17%, UDAR – 15,9%, Svoboda – 5,6%, CPU – 5,5%, Solidarnist – 3,6%. Another 0,9% of respondents would support the Ukrainian choice, 0,7% - O. Lyashko Radical party, 0,3% - Nasha Ukraina. The other parties – 2,1%. Would not participate in the elections – 15,5%, didn’t decide – 12,6%.

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