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Общественно-политические настроения украинцев:  новые вызовы

Socio-Political Moods of the Ukrainians: New Challenges

Date posted: 26.04.2018 Print Full version

 • According to the results of the research carried out by the Sociological Group “Rating”, 75% of the polled believe things in Ukraine are going in the wrong direction, 14% - express the opposite opinion, 11% - hesitate to estimate this issue. The residents of Kyiv and the Podilsky cluster (Vinnytsia and Khmelnytsky regions) express the relatively lower pessimism referring this matter while the highest level of criticism has been recorded in the Southern and Eastern regions.

The request for changes has been gradually increasing. Today, almost 70% of the respondents believe the country needs radical transformations, 10% think that it is better to leave things as they are but not worse, still, 16% support the return of the things as they used to be before. In the midst of almost all the electoral groups, except for the current government supporters, the number of those who demand changes exceeds the number of those who support stability and return to the past. Relatively higher demand for a turn in the opposite direction has been recorded among the supporters of Y.Boyko, V.Rabinovich, and O.Lyashko (more than 20%), for stabilization – among the supporters of P.Poroshenko (45%). The highest number of those who seek for changes has been recorded among young people (under 40), those with higher income and education, as well as among those who seek for changes in politics and are looking for alternatives during future elections among the "new" parties, in particular among the supporters of S.Vakarchuk and V.Zelensky. At the same time, the demand for radical transformations among the respondents of other categories is also high.
In society, there has been a growing demand for the political environment modernization. While in 2012 a half of the polled were ready to support the parties represented in the Verkhovna Rada and only 21% wanted to change them, in April of this year, the situation is the opposite: 46% of the polled expressed their readiness to support new political projects and only one-third would vote for parliamentary parties. The highest number of those who are seeking for changes in political life has been recorded among young people, those with higher income, and urban residents. Even among the supporters of the "old" parties, not less than one-third is ready to search an alternative for them.
Termination of the hostilities in the East of Ukraine and strengthening of the fight against corruption are two of the main expectations of the future President of Ukraine. 38% expect the new head of state to recover the industry, almost a quarter – to improve the quality of medicine and social standards, 16% - to reduce the influence of oligarchs on politics, 11% - to recover the agrarian sector, 7% - to stimulate business development.
New faces in the Ukrainian politics receive the highest level of trust among the citizens. Svyatoslav Vakarchuk is trusted by 33% of the polled, not trusted – by 47%, Volodymyr Zelensky is trusted by 32% and not trusted by 50%.
Anatoly Hrytsenko is trusted by 26%, Yulia Tymoshenko - 20%, Oleh Lyashko - 17%, Yuriy Boyko - 18%, Volodymyr Hroisman - 17%, Andriy Sadovyi - 17%, Vadym Rabinovich - 14%, Valentine Nalyvaichenko - 14%, Petro Poroshenko - 13%, Oleh Tyahnibok - 11%, Arseniy Yatsenyuk - 8%.
Yulia Tymoshenko leads the presidential rating - about 9% of all the respondents are ready to support her; A.Hrytsenko - 7%, Y.Boyko, S.Vakarchuk, V.Zelensky - 6% each, P.Poroshenko and O.Lyashko - 5% each, V.Rabinovich - 4%, A.Sadovyi - 2%, V.Nalyvaichenko, O.Tyahnibok, A.Yatsenyuk - 1% each, another candidate - 11%, one-third - have not decided or have no intention to vote.
At the same time, among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice, the support for Y.Tymoshenko is about 14%, A.Hrytsenko - 11%, Y.Boyko, P.Poroshenko, and S.Vacharchuk - 9% each, V.Zelensky and O.Lyashko - 8% each, V.Rabinovich - 6%.
The leader of so-called "second choice" is V.Zelensky - 6% of those who would not have found their main favorite in the list would have supported him. About 4% of the respondents could vote for Y.Tymoshenko, S.Vakarchuk, A.Hrytsenko, and O.Lyashko under such conditions, for V.Rabinovich, Y.Boyko, A.Sadovyi, O.Tyahnibok, P.Poroshenko, and V.Nalivaychenko – 2% each.
It should be noted that the supporters of the "new" candidates under the lack of their favorites are more likely to vote for "new faces" rather than for those who have been present in Ukrainian politics for a long time - at least one-third of the supporters of S.Vakarchuk can vote for V.Zelensky.
The leader of anti-rating is P.Poroshenko. Almost a half of those polled would not vote for him under any circumstances. Anti-rating of A.Yatsenyuk is 26%, O.Lyashko - 25%, Y.Tymoshenko - 24%, O.Tyahnibok - 18%, Y.Boyko - 17%, and V.Rabinovich - 16%.
Parties’ rating is headed by Batkyvshchyna. About 9% of all the respondents are ready to support this political force. Opposition Bloc, “Sluha narodu” party (V. Zelensky), Civic Position (A.Hrytsenko) - 6% each, Radical Party, "Za Zhyttia", BPP Solidarnist - 5% each, Samopomich - 3%, Svoboda and Agrarian Party - 2% each. Other parties - about 14%, more than one-third - have not decided nor have no intentions to vote.
At the same time, among those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice, the support of the parties is as follows: Batkyvshchyna - 16%, Civic Position of A.Hrytsenko and Opposition Bloc - 10% each, party “Sluha narodu” of V.Zelensky - 9%, "Za Zhyttia", Radical Party, and BPP Solidarnist - 8% each, Samopomich - 5%. The closest to crossing the barrier are Svoboda (4%), Agrarian Party (3%), and UKROP (2%).
The most often mentioned incentive for choosing a political force by the respondent is the support of the party's socio-economic initiatives. 17% make their choice on the basis of sympathy for the leader, 11% - because of the ideological principles. Referring the dynamics of the last few years, the demand for socio-economic initiatives has increased significantly while the demand for ideological principles has decreased.
In society, there has been a gradual departure from paternalistic expectations and an increase in the demand for individual activity and internal position. While in 2011, almost 80% of the polled believed the authorities should take responsibility for ensuring the life of each citizen, today the number of these respondents is less than 60%. The most inclined to the paternalistic value orientations are the eldest and the poorest respondents, while the youngest and the richest are more likely to choose the individual activity. The level of education also has a positive impact on changes in the citizens’ values.
Likewise, the attitude towards the need to "equalize" incomes has been changing. Seven years ago, almost 70% supported such initiatives while today this number is half as much. Instead, the support of the thesis that it is necessary to stimulate the individual activity of the citizens through opportunities for increasing incomes has been growing.
On the other hand, there has been somewhat weaker dynamics in terms of the issue of reducing the state share of ownership in business and industry in favor of the private sector: in 2011, 61% supported the increase of the state share of ownership; in 2017, this figure decreased to 52%; in 2018 it rose up to 58% again.
Despite the value changes in society, in the light of the crisis in economy and politics, the demand for order maintenance has been gradually increasing, even if it leads to restriction of democratic principles and freedoms. Such a way of development is supported by 70% of the respondents (63% last year). Only 15% stand for increasing freedom and democracy in the absence of order (in 2017 - 22%). The demand for order is the highest among the oldest, the poorest, and the lower-educated. At the same time, even among the youngest, the richest, and the highest-educated respondents, the number of those in favor of order is at least 60%.
In the light of an increase in estimates of the spread of corruption on the local level, the tolerance to this phenomenon has been gradually decreasing. Over the past five years, the number of those who believe that corruption had been increasing has grown from 49% to 61%. At the same time, the share of those who consider that a bribe is justified if it is necessary to resolve personal significance issue has decreased from 37% to 13%. The number of those who had personally given bribes has also somewhat decreased (from 27% in 2013 to 22% in 2018). The highest number of those who had given bribes has been recorded among the polled aged 30 to 50 years old, as well as among those with higher income and education.
The attitude towards corruption as a phenomenon, in general, has been gradually changing. The number of those who believe that corruption is a disease that stops the development of Ukrainian society (55%) has been gradually increasing, and the share of those who are convinced that this is a mechanism without which our society cannot exist (39%) has been decreasing. At the same time, the highest number of the last thesis supporters has been observed among the youngest (under 40), the most educated and rich. Among those who have personally given bribes over the last year, almost a half also supports this thesis (47%). Moreover, one-third of them justify bribery for personal purposes.
The vast majority of the polled (at least 75%) are convinced that punishment for corruption for central authorities officials, law enforcement officers, tax officials, customs officers, and local authorities should be very strict (imprisonment, confiscation of property). Along with that, the higher the level of government, the more severe the punishment should be. 11% to 18% believe that responsibility for bribery should be limited to a fine or a dismissal from work. Only 1-2% support light types of punishment (warning, reprimand). On the other hand, the position towards teachers and doctors is much more loyal: 44% support severe punishments for this category, 32% - moderate, and 15% - stand against any criminal liability for bribery for teachers and doctors.
Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 6 000 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 1.5%. Period of the survey: 10-22 April 2018

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