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Президентские выборы: второй тур

Presidential elections: second round

Date posted: 03.10.2011 Print Full version

In a conventional opposition of the "second round" only A. Yatsenyuk wins over V. Yanukovych, Y. Tymoshenko and V. Klitschko have become almost equal, yet they concede minimally.

YANUKOVYCH versus TYMOSHENKO

According to results of the research conducted by the Sociological group "Rating", if presidential elections in Ukraine took place at the end of September 2011, and V. Yanukovych and Y. Tymoshenko passed to the second round, 31.8% of respondents (among those who intend to participate in elections) would support the current President of Ukraine, 31.4% - the ex-premier, 26.8% - would not support any of the candidates and 10% - haven’t decided on their choice.

Given the dynamics, 40% of respondents were ready to support V. Yanukovych over Y. Tymoshenko in December 2010, 33% - in March 2011, 34% - in May 2011 and 32% - in September 2011. At the same time, 30% of respondents were ready to support Y. Tymoshenko in December 2010, 33% - in March 2011, 32% - in May 2011 and 31% - in September 2011.

We would like to remind you that in the last presidential elections, V. Yanukovych won over Y. Tymoshenko in the second round (49 versus 45%).

Thus, there is a tendency of decreased support for both politicians during their confrontation, but it is more dynamic as regards the current head of the state.

V. Yanukovych is the most strongly supported in the South (52%) and in Donbas (51%), somewhat less in the East (42%) and in the North (27%). At the same time, Y. Tymoshenko is the most strongly supported in the West (49%), in the Center (43%) and in the North (41%). Among voters of other politicians, supporters of S. Tihipko (57%) and P. Symonenko (25%) are the readiest to support V. Yanukovych over Y. Tymoshenko, as well as respondents who haven’t decided on their choice (21%).

Voters of A. Hrytsenko (51%), O. Tiahnybok (40%) and A. Yatsenyuk (39%) are ready to support Y. Tymoshenko. The majority of V. Klitschko’s supporters do not support any of these politicians.

YANUKOVYCH versus YATSENYUK

If presidential elections in Ukraine took place at the end of September 2011, and V. Yanukovych and A. Yatsenyuk passed to the second round, 29.3% of respondents would support the current President of Ukraine, 34.6% - the leader of the Front for Change, 25.1% - would not support any of the candidates and 11% - haven’t decided on their choice.

Given the dynamics, 39% of respondents were ready to support V. Yanukovych over A. Yatsenyuk in December 2010, 32% - in March 2011, 32% - in May 2011, 29% - in September 2011.

 At the same time, 31% of respondents were willing to support A. Yatsenyuk in December 2010, 34% - in March 2011, 32% - in May 2011, 35% - in September 2011.

Thus, there is a tendency of decreased support for V. Yanukovych and increased support for his possible opponent A. Yatsenyuk in their political confrontation.

V. Yanukovych is the most strongly supported in the South (51%) and in Donbas (48%), somewhat less in the East (41%) and in the North (23%). At the same time, A. Yatsenyuk is the most strongly supported in the West (61%), in the Center (41%) and in the North (38%).

Among voters of other politicians, supporters of S. Tihipko (50%) and P. Symonenko (23%) are the readiest to support V. Yanukovych over A. Yatsenyuk, as well as respondents who haven’t decided on their choice (18%). Supporters of A. Hrytsenko (60%), Y. Tymoshenko (59%), O. Tiahnybok (51%) and V. Klitschko (33%) are ready to support A. Yatsenyuk.

In a possible confrontation with V. Yanukovych, A. Yatsenyuk has more support than Y. Tymoshenko, due to higher support in the West and higher support among voters of O. Tiahnybok and V. Klitschko.

Interestingly, in a possible confrontation with V. Yanukovych, Y. Tymoshenko’s voters are a lot more willing to support the leader of the Front for Change, than voters of A. Yatsenyuk are ready to support the leader of Batkivshchyna.

YANUKOVYCH versus TIAHNYBOK 

If presidential elections in Ukraine took place at the end of September 2011, and V. Yanukovych and O. Tiahnybok passed to the second round, then 32.3% of respondents would support the current President of Ukraine, 16.8% - the leader of Freedom, 38.2% - would not support any of the candidates and 12.7% - have not decided on their choice.

Given the dynamics, 40% of respondents were ready to support V. Yanukovych over O. Tiahnybok in December 2010, 34% - in March 2011, 36% - in May 2011, 32% - in September 2011.

At the same time, 19% of respondents were willing to support O. Tiahnybok in December 2010, 22% - in March 2011, 17% - in May 2011, 17% - in September 2011.

Thus, there is a tendency of decreased support for both politicians during their confrontation, but it is more dynamic as regards the current head of the state.

V. Yanukovych is the most strongly supported in Donbas (54%) and in the South (52%), somewhat less in the East (41%) and in the North (27%). At the same time, O. Tiahnybok is supported in the West (41%) and in the North (17%).

 Among voters of other politicians, supporters of S. Tihipko (53%) and P. Symonenko (23%) are the readiest to support V. Yanukovych over O. Tiahnybok, as well as respondents who haven’t decided on their choice (23%).

Supporters of A. Hrytsenko (34%), Y. Tymoshenko (30%), O. Tiahnybok and A. Yatsenyuk (26%) are ready to support O. Tiahnybok.

The majority of V. Klitschko’s voters do not support any of these politicians.

YANUKOVYCH versus KLITSCHKO

If presidential elections in Ukraine took place at the end of September 2011, and V. Yanukovych and V. Klitschko passed to the second round, 29.6% of respondents would support the current President of Ukraine, 28.3% - the leader of UDAR party, 28.3% - would not support any of the candidates and 13.8% - have not decided on their choice.

Given the dynamics, 34% of respondents were ready to support V. Yanukovych over V. Klitschko in May 2011, 30% - in September 2011.

At the same time, 24% were ready to support V. Klitschko in May 2011, 28% - in September 2011.

Thus, there is a tendency of decreased support for V. Yanukovych and increased support for his possible opponent V. Klitschko in their political confrontation.

V. Yanukovych is the most strongly supported in Donbas (53%) and in the South (50%), somewhat less in the East (41%) and in the North (23%). At the same time, V. Klitschko is supported in the West (45%), in the North (39%), in the Center (33%) as well as in the East (18%).

Among voters of other politicians, supporters of S. Tihipko (47%), P. Symonenko (24%) and respondents who have not decided on their choice (18%) are the readiest to support V. Yanukovych. Supporters of O. Tiahnybok (57%), A. Hrytsenko (49%), A. Yatsenyuk (46%) and Y. Tymoshenko (40%) are ready to support V. Klitschko.

It is important to emphasize that none of the pairs of the second round of the elections could convince the "against all" category - over 80% of them remained of the same opinion.

We would like to remind you that during the first round of presidential elections 21% would vote for V. Yanukovych, 18% - for Y. Tymoshenko, 11.7% - for A. Yatsenyuk, 6.6% - for V. Klitschko, 5.5% - for P. Symonenko, 3.5% - for O. Tiahnybok, 2.9% - for S. Tihipko, 2.6% - for A. Hrytsenko. "Against all" - 10.7%, undecided - 12.6%.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2,2%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,3. The period of completion: 17-27 of September 2011

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka

Other research: