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Рейтинг поддержки непопулярных реформ

Rating of support of unpopular reforms

Date posted: 22.03.2010 Print Full version

The threat of economic decline of the country is felt by more than a half (56%) of respondents. Remaining practically unchanged over the past six months, economic decline is a leader in the so-called rating of threats.

Respondents mentioned the increase in unemployment somewhat less (41%). This index is invariably second in the rating, and over the past few months, these concerns have increased, especially in south-eastern industrial regions of the country.

As a result of stabilization in the financial sector the feeling of threat concerning devaluation of hryvnya has decreased (from 31% in October of the last year to 24% in March of this year).

After presidential elections the feeling of threat concerning arbitrariness of the government has decreased (almost 40% of Ukrainians felt this threat in August of the last year, while in March of this year it was only a quarter). After the electoral victory of Viktor Yanukovych, the feeling of threat concerning arbitrariness of the government in south-eastern regions has decreased by half.

Over the past six months the feeling of threat concerning degradation of the population has decreased (from 21% to 16%), however this threat is invariably the fifth in the rating.

Next in the rating of threats there are environmental disasters (15%), deterioration of health care (15%), and growth of crime (14%).

Compared to October of the last year, public fears concerning the secession of the country and the loss of independence have increased nearly by half. This is especially true for the West, where every one in five people expect ecalation of the country’s secession, every one in four – the loss of independence, every one in ten – the loss of control over gas and transportation systems, anticonstitutional upheaval and military threat on the part of Russia.

Intensification of ideological threats is characteristic of supporters of most opposition parties. Moreover, there is a gradual reorientation from economic to ideological threats among them.

For example, among supporters of Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc fears of economic collapse and devaluation of hryvnya have decreased, against the background of strengthened feelings of the country’s secession and the loss of independence.

On the other hand, feelings of threat concerning economic decline, growth of unemployment, deterioration of health care, environmental disasters, etc. among supporters of the Party of Regions have increased.

Only about a quarter of the population expressed their readiness to support unpopular reforms under certain circumstances.

Only 3% of the respondents are ready to support governmental moves aimed at saving public funds through restricting certain benefits, increasing rates, etc. under any circumstances. 

17% - are ready to support if the government proves that these measures are really necessary for the country. Another 7% - are ready to support, provided that these reforms do not directly apply to them.

However, 61% of the respondents are not ready to support unpopular reforms:

-   18% do not believe that the authorities will restrict themselves in the same way as they are restricting people;

-   8% do not believe in the effectiveness of such measures;

-   35% reject unpopular reforms as such.

The greatest resistance to unpopular reforms exists in the South and in the East of the country, and the willingness to support mostly exists in the North.

Supporters of various political forces have a similarly negative attitude towards such reforms, except there is a somewhat higher readiness for unpopular reforms among supporters of the A. Yatsenyuk’s Front for Change and greater uncertainty in the electorate of the CPU and the Party of Regions.

Despite the low level of support for unpopular reforms, 45% of respondents expect such moves from the new government. The reforms are most expected in the West, in the North and in the Center of the country (50%), while the lowest  expectations are in the South - 32%. In fact, supporters of the Party of Regions, the CPU and Strong Ukraine expect unpopular moves from the new government the least.

The research illustrates a certain relation: people, who understand the threat of economic decline of the country more than others, are more willing to support unpopular reforms. However, only half of them expressed willingness to support unpopular governmental decisions.

If the government undertakes such unpopular moves, 7% of residents of Ukraine are ready to participate in mass protests, while another 13% are ready to support the political force, which will organize appropriate actions with demands to abolish such decisions.

Thus, residents of the West, the North, the East and the South are the most willing to personally take part in protest actions, as well as supporters of the CPU, Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, and Strong Ukraine. As we can see, the protest against unpopular reforms has no definite political vector, ideology or regionality.

About 6% of the population are ready to actively support the political force, which will stand for unpopular reforms. However, more than a half of Ukrainians (54%) will not participate in any actions (whether support or protest), and every one in five people said they have not decided on this issue.

Among possible reforms, the biggest support was given to those that do not concern the majority of people - namely, the abolition of benefits for civil servants (43%) and reduction of their number (34%).

Such reforms as increasing the liability of citizens who do not pay for utilities (14.7%), reducing public sector (13.8%), introducing paid health insurance (12.1%), increasing business taxes (11.1%) and reducing benefits for transportation fare (8.6%) were supported by significantly fewer respondents.

Other possible reforms suggested to the public received practically no support. Among them are increasing utility rates (0.9%) increasing gas prices for the population (0.9%), higher prices for public transportation (1.5%), partial cancellation of benefits for "Chornobyl’tsy" (1, 6%), reducing payments at birth of a child (2.1%), partial cancellation of benefits for "children of war" (2.5%), raising the retirement age (2.5%), temporary suspension of increase in pensions (3.4% ), temporary suspension of increase in wages (3.5%), giving permission to banks to take away the mortgaged property from people who do not pay the loans (3.5%).

Every one in three respondents (31%) did not support any of the above reforms, and another 10% have not decided on their attitude.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 3%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2,6%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,8. The period of completion: 2-10 of Marсh 2010

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.

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