MONITORING OF THE LOCAL ELECTIONS 2020: CHERNIVTSI

•    Results of the survey carried out by the Sociological Group Rating on September 18-20, 2020 among the residents of Chernivtsi, revealed that respondents are equally pessimistic about both the situation in the city and in Ukraine. Thus, only 12% believe the things in the city are going in the right direction, 77% think the opposite. With regard to Ukraine, only 16% think the direction of the country’s development is right, 70% share the opposing opinion.

•    65% said they would definitely vote in the local elections. 15% of respondents are not sure on the matter (50/50). 4% would possibly participate in the elections, 16% are unlikely to vote.

•    Considering the ranking of political forces (elections to the city council), the following political forces have leading positions: "Sluha Narodu" - 14.2% among those who have decided and intend to vote; "Rydne Misto" - 12.2%, “Yedyna Alternatyva” - 10.7%, “Party of Chernivtsi Citizens” - 10.6%. 9.0% are ready to vote for “European Solidarity” party, 8.2% - for “Propozytsiya”, 7.0% - “Batkyvshchyna”, 4.7%  - “Opposition Platform – Za Zhyttia”, 3.0% - “Holos”. The rating of other forces is below 3%. About 9% of the polled have not decided on the choice. Support for “Rydne Misto” party, “Party of Chernivtsi Citizens”, “Propozytsiya”, and “Yedyna Alternatyva” has increased considering the dynamics. “Sluha Narodu” and "Batkyvshchyna" have suffered losses.

•    Vitaliy Mykhailyshyn (“Rydne Misto”) holds a leadership position among the mayoral candidates with a rate of 22.1% among those who have decided and will vote in the elections; Oleksiy Kaspruk (“Propozytsiya”) has a rating of 18.9%. 15.0% are ready to vote for Mykola Fedoruk (“Party of Chernivtsi Citizens”), 11.0% - for Roman Klychuk (“Yedyna Alternatyva”), 10.2% - for Vitaliy Druganovskiy (“Sluha Narodu”). Ratings of other candidates are below 5%. About 14-15% of the polled have not decided on the choice. The support for V.Mykhailyshyn, R.Klychuk, and V.Druhanovskiy has increased considering the dynamics over the month.

•    Simulation of the second round has provided the following results: within a pair V.Druganovskiy against O.Kaspruk, the latter would have won with a small advantage (35% vs. 30%); O.Kaspruk against M.Fedoruk - the leader of “Party of Chernivtsi Citizens” would have won (39% against 29%); V.Druganovskiy against R.Klychuk - the candidate from “Yedyna Alternatyva” would have won (34% against 22%); R.Klychuk against M.Fedoruk - the latter would have won (39% against 31%); R.Klychuk against O.Kaspruk - there is no clear winner yet (35% against 33% in favor of the candidate from “Yedyna Alternatyva”).


Audience: residents of Chernivtsi aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age and gender. Total sample: 1200 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 2.8%. Period of the survey: 18-20 September, 2020