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Динамика идеологических маркеров

Dynamics of ideological markers

Date posted: 27.12.2012 Print Full version

According to the survey conducted by the Sociological group "Rating", 52% of Ukrainian respondents support Ukraine's accession to the European Union. 34% - do not support it. Other 14% - are undecided.

It should be noted that during 2012 the number of supporters of the European integration is stable, somewhat less than in 2010-2011, but more than in 2009. Despite this, the number of "firm" supporters of the European integration is growing every year: if in 2010-2011 Ukraine's accession to the EU was firmly supported by about a quarter of Ukrainians, then in 2012 – it is supported by at least a third of them.

The biggest supporters of Ukraine's accession to the EU are young  people - almost two thirds of respondents aged 18-29 support the initiative, while only a quarter do not support it. Elderly people have the most pessimistic attitude towards the initiative: 38% - support it and 43% - do not support  it. Among the biggest supporters of the European integration are residents of the West (77%), somewhat less residents of the Centre (64%), of the North (54%) and the East (51%). However, about a half of respondents in the South and in Donbas do not support the initiative.

However, 41% of respondents support the formation of a unified state with Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. 44% - do not support it. Other 15% - have not decided.

If in 2010-2011 the number of supporters of a unified state stably exceeded the number of opponents, in 2012, opposite tendencies are observed.

The formation of a unified state with Russia is mostly supported by elderly people (53%), it is the least supported by youth (32%), in cities more than in villages. Stably, the initiative has the greatest support in the South (64%), in Donbas (57%) and in the East (54%) of the country. At the same time, more than a half of residents of central and northern Ukraine and more than 80% of residents of the West do not support the formation of a unified state with Ukraine, Russia and Belarus.

Interestingly, at least a quarter of respondents who support the the formation of a unified state with Russia and Belarus, at the same time support Ukraine's accession to the EU.

Taking into account such peculiarities of responses, respondents were asked a direct question. Thus, according to respondents signing the Free Trade Agreement with the European Union is more favorable to Ukraine (40%) than accession to the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan (37%). 23% - have not decided.

Within the past year the number of supporters of signing the FTA with the European Union remained almost unchanged, while the number of those who consider the Customs Union more beneficial for the country has slightly increased (from 34 to 37%).

As a result, the West, the North and the Centre of Ukraine rather support the Agreement with the EU. Donbas, the South and the East - accession to the Customs Union. Also, in the East there are somewhat more respondents who are undecided on the issue. Young people, people with higher education are traditionally more supportive of the signing of the FTA with the European Union, elderly people – of the accession to the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

41% of respondents support granting Russian the status of the state language. However, more than a half of respondents (51%) are against it. Other 8% - are undecided.

It should be noted that over the past two years, the number of opponents and supporters of bilingualism remained almost equal. However, in 2012 the level of support for granting Russian the status of the state language has decreased sharply, especially during the second half of 2012. If we talk about longer dynamics, starting from 2009-2010 the level of support of the initiative has decreased from 52-54% to 41%, while the number of opponents has increased from 40-41% to 51%.

Among the biggest supporters of bilingualism are residents of Donbas (75%), of the South (72%) and of the East (53%). However, almost 70% of residents of central and northern Ukraine and almost 90% of residents of the West - do not support the initiative. Granting Russian the status of the state language is mostly supported by elderly people, least of all – by the youth, in cities more than in villages.

We can assume that in general the recent strengthening of the legal status of the Russian language in certain areas contributed to worsening of the attitude to the idea of granting Russian the status of the state language in the entire country.

Indeed, according to the results of a similar survey conducted by the Sociological group "Rating" in July 2012, nearly 80% of respondents said they did not have any problems using their native language this year. According to 37% of respondents, the Ukrainian language requires greater legal protection, half as many (18%) - believe that Russian needs greater protection. However, 34% of respondents believe that both languages are sufficiently protected by law.

Only 19% of Ukrainian respondents support Ukraine's accession to NATO, with almost two-thirds of respondents who do not support it. It should be noted that within 2012 the level of support for Ukraine's accession to NATO remained stable, but if you apply to a longer dynamics, it has become somewhat worse - from 24-26% in 2010 to 19% in 2012.

The support for Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance is only strongly pronounced in the West of the country (about a half of respondents). The attitude towards NATO among young people is somewhat better than among middle-aged and elderly people.

A quarter of respondents support the idea to recognize OUN-UPA as participants of the struggle for Ukrainian independence, 51% of respondents – do not support this idea. Other 26% are undecided on this issue. Compared with 2010, the number of supporters of the idea has increased from 20 to 23%, while the number of opponents has decreased from 61 to 51%. The number of respondents who are undecided on this issue has also increased.

The idea finds support with over 60% of residents of western Ukraine and with about a quarter of residents of central and northern Ukraine. Instead, more than a half of residents of the East, almost 70% - of Donbas and the South do not support the idea to recognize OUN-UPA as participants of the struggle for Ukrainian independence. The idea is supported in rural areas rather than in urban areas. The biggest number of undecided on this issue is among young people, the highest level of lack of support ia among elderly people.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older.

Optional quantity: 1200 respondents.

The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face).

Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2.8%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2.6%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1.7%.

The period of completion: 25 of September - 5 of October 2012

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Chernivets’ka.

Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Cherkas’ka, Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.

South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol

East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Kharkivs’ka, Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.

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