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 Электоральные настроения и проблемы, наиболее волнующих население Украины, осень 2018

Electoral moods and problems of Ukrainians, autumn 2018

Date posted: 01.11.2018 Print Full version

 • According to the results of the public opinion survey conducted on September 28 – October 16, 2018 by “Social Monitoring” Center, Ukrainian Institute of Social Research of O.Yaremenko, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, and Sociological Group “Rating”, these days, the key problems of concern to Ukrainians are the military conflict in the East of Ukraine (54.4%), low salaries and pensions (54.1%), tariffs’ increase (48.1%), growth of prices for basic goods, inflation (34.9%), unemployment, lack of work (26.8%); bribery, corruption within state bodies (25.5%), and inability to obtain high quality healthcare (19%).

The military conflict in the East is the most relevant for the residents of Donbas (68.4%), 50-59 years age group representatives (54.7%), men (54.2%), and respondents with an average financial situation (55.7%). The low level of salaries or pensions is more relevant for the elderly (62.8%), women (53.9%), and those with either low or very low level of income (56.9%). Increase of tariffs for communal services is more painful issue for the respondents aged 60 and older (53.3%), women (50.4%), and those with low income (50.4%). Growth of prices for basic goods and inflation are of the most concern for the same categories of the polled. Lack of work and unemployment are more relevant for the residents of the West (30.5%) and South (29.4%) of the country, as well as for those aged 18-29 (35.5%), men (27%), and rural citizens (31%).
75.8% of the respondents said they were ready to come to the polls during the presidential elections. 11.9% of the polled believe that they will definitely not vote; 7.6% - most likely will not vote. 4.7% either have not decided whether they will vote or hesitated to answer.
If the presidential elections were held next week, the greatest chances to come to the second round would have: Yulia Tymoshenko (13.4% of all / 18.9% of those who have decided and would vote); Volodymyr Zelenskiy (7.6% / 10.7 %), Anatoliy Hrytsenko (7.0% / 9.9%), Petro Poroshenko (7.0% / 9.9%), Yuriy Boyko (6.9% / 9.8%). O.Lyashko (5.7% / 8.0%) and S.Vakarchuk (4.9% / 7.0%) are much less likely to get into the final part of the elections.
Simulation of the second round of the presidential elections revealed the following results: within the pair of P.Poroshenko and A.Hrytsenko, the first candidate would be supported by 14.3% of the respondents, the second – by 33.1%; within the pair of Y.Tymoshenko - A.Hrytsenko, 24.8% would have voted for the leader of Batkivshchyna, 26.9% would support A.Hrytsenko; considering the combination of P.Poroshenko and Y.Tymoshenko, 15,1% stand for the first candidate, 30,7% - for the second; within the pair of P.Poroshenko - Y. Boyko, the current Head of State would be supported by 20.0%, the leader of the Opposition Bloc – by 20.2%; considering the pair of Y.Tymoshenko - Y.Boyko, 30.3% are in favor of the first candidate, 16.8% - the second one; within the pair A.Hrytsenko - Y.Boyko, 31.3% and 15.9% respectively.
72.3% of the respondents stated that they would take part in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine; 21.9% indicated that they would not vote, and 5.8% hesitated to answer.
Answering the direct question of the party choice, 14.7% responded that they would not take part in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine if they were held on the next Sunday. One-fifth of all respondents (20.3%) have not yet decided on the final choice.
These days, eight political forces can count on overcoming the 5% barrier and entering the parliament. Among those who have decided and will take part in the elections, 21.4% would vote for Batkivshchyna, 11.3% - for Opposition Bloc, 10.5% - Civic Position, 9,8% - Sluha Narodu, 9,1% - Block of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarnist”, 8.1% - for Radical Party of O.Lyashko, 5.4% - Za Zhyttia, 5,0% - Samopomich.
Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 13684 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 0.85%. Period of the survey: 28 September – 16 October, 2018

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