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Электоральные настроения населения Украины: август 2009

Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: August 2009

Date posted: 25.08.2009 Print Full version

 According to the nationwide survey conducted in August 2009, 49% of respondents stated that if the presidential elections took place next Sunday, they would surely participate in them, 31% - would likely participate. However, with parliamentary elections the numbers are - 45% and 32% respectively. Thus, voter participation is expected to be slightly higher in presidential elections than in parliamentary.

The rating of sympathies in the presidential elections is headed by Viktor Yanukovych, Yulia Tymoshenko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk. As compared to May 2009, support for V. Yanukovych has increased from 25.3% to 28.9%. Support for Y. Tymoshenko remains almost unchanged (15.9% in May to 15.4% in August), the same with support for A. Yatsenyuk - almost unchanged (13.2% to 12.3%).
The next three candidates balance at 3-5%. Thus, compared to May support for V. Lytvyn decreased from 6.2% to 3.7% P. Simonenko’s support remains almost unchanged (4.4% to 3.9%). The same with support for Viktor Yushchenko - almost unchanged (3.1 % to 2.6%).
Distribution of votes among those who intend to participate in elections is the following: V. Yanukovych - 34.6%, Y. Tymoshenko - 18.3%, A. Yatsenyuk - 14.4%, P. Symonenko - 4.4%, V. Lytvyn - 4.2%, V. Yushchenko - 3%, O. Tiahnybok - 1.4%, I. Bogoslovs’ka - 1.3%, S. Tihipko - 1.1%. Others - 1.6%, against all - 7.8%, have not decided - 7,9%.
As an answer to the question "Who would you vote for if V. Yanukovych and Y. Tymoshenko participated in the second round of the elections?", 35% of respondents chose the Party of Regions, 23% - Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. In the pair "Yanukovych-Yatsenyuk", the numbers are in favor of the first - 34% to 24%. In the pair "Yanukovych-Yushchenko”, support for Yanukovich is even more appreciable - 37% to 8%.
As for the hypothetical pair "Yatsenyuk-Tymoshenko”, the leader of “Front for Change" wins - 23% to 19%. He also wins in the pair "Yatsenyuk-Yushchenko" - 29% to 4%.
The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. 
Optional quantity: 2000 respondents.
The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face).
Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 3%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2,6%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,8%.
The period of completion: 2-15 of August 2009
The oblast’ distribution:
West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.

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