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Мониторинг электоральных настроений украинцев (22-27 марта 2019 года)


Date posted: 28.03.2019 Print Full version

 • According to the results of the survey carried out by the Sociological Group “Rating”, based on the outcomes of the third week of the March, more than 80% of the polled reasonably declare their willingness to take part in the Presidential elections on March, 31, 2019, including half of the polled who are certain about their participation, and one-third who are rather certain.

• Meanwhile, 58% are fully confident in a candidate’s choice and will definitely come to vote for the candidate; at the same time, a quarter is unsure of their choice, but still intends to vote.
• The leader of the presidential rating remains V.Zelensky, who is supported by 26.6% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The second position is shared by P.Poroshenko and Y.Tymoshenko - 17% of the voters are ready to support each of them. 9.8% are ready to give their votes for A.Hrytsenko, for Y.Boyko - 9.5%, O.Lyashko - 5.4%, O.Vilkul - 4%, I.Smeshko - 3.5%, R.Koshulinsky - 1.9%.
• Every sixth respondent have not decided on the candidate's choice. It is important that the highest number of such was recorded among the poorest voters, residents of the Central and Western Ukraine, women, middle-aged people, and those Ukrainian language speakers.
• V.Zelensky has the strongest electoral positions in the Southern and Eastern regions and in the Center of the country. Y.Tymoshenko and P.Poroshenko - in the Center and West, A.Hrytsenko - in the West, Y.Boyko and O.Vilkul - in the East and South of the country. Moreover, V.Zelensky is the leader of electoral sympathies in the cities, Y.Tymoshenko - in the villages. V.Zelensky is the leader of sympathies among young and middle-aged people, while Y.Tymoshenko - among older voters; P.Poroshenko has the strongest positions among middle-aged voters. While V.Zelensky and A.Hrytsenko are relatively more supported by men, Y.Tymoshenko gains higher support from women; P.Poroshenko is equally supported both by men and women.
• Almost 41% of the respondents believe that V.Zelensky will succeed in the second round of the presidential elections, 38% think the same about Y.Tymoshenko, 37% - about P.Poroshenko. 6% of voters believe that Y.Boyko and A.Hrytsenko will enter the second round. At the same time, the fact that P.Poroshenko will enter the second round is relatively more believed in the West of the country, Y.Tymoshenko - in the Center, V.Zelensky - in the South and East of the country. The voters of the Western Ukraine are the least confident about the second round participants.
• The leaders of the "second choice" (For whom would you vote if the candidate you support now will not participate in the elections?) are V.Zelensky (8,1%), A.Hrytsenko (7,3%), and Y.Tymoshenko (6%). Almost 5% of the voters would support O.Vilkul, provided their candidate would not participate; 3% would support Y.Boyko, P.Poroshenko, I.Smeshko, and O.Lyashko.
• The voters of V.Zelensky admit the probability of support of Y.Tymoshenko amidst all the other candidates, while half would not choose any other candidate. The voters of A.Hrytsenko admit the possibility of support of V.Zelensky, P.Poroshenko, and I.Smeshko. The voters of Y.Tymoshenko could vote for V.Zelensky, A.Hrytsenko, and O.Lyashko, the voters of O.Vilkul - for Y.Boyko, and voters of Y.Boyko -  for O.Vilkul (the electorates of the two latter intersect almost by half). P.Poroshenko has the most stable voters - the majority will not elect any other candidate and will allow slight overflows only in favor of A.Hrytsenko. The supporters of I.Smeshko admit the possibility of support of A.Hrytsenko and V.Zelensky, the voters of O.Lyashko - Y.Tymoshenko, A.Hrytsenko, and V.Zelensky, the voters of R.Koshulinsky - A.Hrytsenko and P.Poroshenko.
Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 3 000 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 1.8%. Period of the survey: 22-27 March 2019.

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