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Мониторинг электоральных настроений украинцев. Февраль 2019

Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians. February, 2019

Date posted: 04.03.2019 Print Full version

 • According to the survey conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” in February, 2019, two-thirds of the respondents believe that things in Ukraine are moving in the wrong direction, while every fifth considers this direction to be right (since the beginning of the year, the latter indicator has increased from 14% to 21%).

Only 10% believe that the economic situation in Ukraine has improved over the last 12 months, while 60% have experienced a deterioration. It is important to note that over the last 5 years the latter indicator has decreased from 86% to 60%, while the number of those polled who believe that the situation has not changed has increased (from 11% to 27%).
Meanwhile, the respondents evaluate the dynamics of changes of their personal economic situation relatively better as compared to the country level. 12% of the polled have seen an improvement of their households’ economic situation over the last 12 months, half of them – a deterioration, and 36% - have not seen any changes.
Since the beginning of the year, the mobilization of voters has increased. Almost 85% of the respondents (compared with 76% in December) indicated their intention (definitely or likely) to participate in the elections of the President of Ukraine. The relatively higher growth rates of those ready to vote are recorded in the South and East of the country.
The leader of the presidential rating is V.Zelensky, supported by 25.1% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The second position is shared by P.Poroshenko (16.6%) and Y.Tymoshenko (16.2%). 11.3% are ready to cast their votes for Y.Boyko, A.Hrytsenko - 7.7%, O.Lyashko - 5.6%, A.Sadoviy - 3%, Y.Murayev - 2.5%, I.Smeshko - 2.5%. O.Shevchenko, R.Koshulinsky, and O.Vilkul gain almost 2% each.
Over the last month, the ratings of V.Zelensky, P.Poroshenko, and Y.Boyko have grown. A slight decrease was recorded at the level of support for Yulia Tymoshenko. The electoral indicators of other candidates have not undergone significant changes. At the same time, over the last month, the share of those who have not decided on the choice has considerably increased (from 15% to 25%).
V.Zelensky has relatively better electoral positions among the voters in the South and East; he also leads the electoral ratings in Ukrainian cities. P.Poroshenko leads in the West of Ukraine. Y.Tymoshenko keeps the strongest positions in the Center, where she shares the primacy with V.Zelensky.
V.Zelensky and Y.Tymoshenko demonstrate the highest potential of electoral growth (so-called "second choice") - 7% of the voters are ready to support each of them provided their favorites do not participate in the elections. P.Poroshenko and A.Hrytsenko have 4% each.
24% of the polled believe the next president will be P.Poroshenko. 19% believe in the victory of Y.Tymoshenko, 17% - of V.Zelensky. Over the last month, confidence in the victory of V.Zelensky has grown significantly. The similar indicators of P.Poroshenko also reveal positive dynamics. The indicators of Y.Tymoshenko remain at December level. At the same time, young people are more likely to believe in the victory of V.Zelensky, while the elderly - in the victory of P.Poroshenko and Y.Tymoshenko.
Anti-rating is headed by P.Poroshenko: almost half of the respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
Simulation of the second round demonstrated the following results: Y.Tymoshenko holds the championship within a pair with P.Poroshenko (31% vs. 24%). At the same time, V.Zelensky leads within the pairs with both P.Poroshenko (42% vs. 24%) and Y.Tymoshenko (37% vs. 24%).
The parties’ rating is headed by Sluha Narodu Party, supported by 21.5% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The support for Batkyvshchyna is 18.7%, BPP Solidarnist - 14.2%, Opposition Platform - 10.5%, Civic Position - 6.2%, Samopomich - 5.5%. About 4% support Radical Party and Svoboda, about 3% - Nashy Party, about 2% - Opposition Bloc and UKROP.
It is interesting that V.Zelensky and P.Poroshenko have much better electoral support than Sluha Narodu and BPP Solidarnist. The similar situation with A.Hrytsenko and O.Lyashko. In contrast, the personal ratings of Y.Tymoshenko and A.Sadoviy are worse than the indicators of Batkyvshchyna and Samopomich.
Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 2500 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 2%. Period of the survey: February 19-28, 2019

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