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Срез общественных настроений украинцев

Electoral moods of Ukrainians

Date posted: 25.09.2018 Print Full version

 • According to the results of the research carried out by the Sociological Group “Rating”, 73% of the respondents believe the country is going in the wrong direction. 15% believe the development direction is right, 13% - could not answer. The youth are more optimistic about the situation; a quarter of them say that the country is going in the right direction. The worst rates for the situation are given by the elderly. Considering the electoral cut, the highest number of those dissatisfied with the state of things was recorded among the supporters of V.Rabinovych, Y.Boyko, and Y.Tymoshenko. On the other hand, almost three-quarters of P.Poroshenko supporters are convinced that the development direction is right.

64% are convinced that the country needs radical changes, 12% stand for leaving the things as they are, 19% support returning to the past. Over the last few months, the number of those who demand radical changes has slightly decreased, while the number of supporters of stabilization and returning to the past has grown. Radical changes were more often demanded by the citizens of the West, stabilization or return to the past - in the Southern and Eastern regions. Supporters of S.Vakarchuk, A.Hrytsenko, V.Zelenskiy, and A.Sadoviy were among those who have demanded changes the most. The stabilization of the situation was more often demanded by the voters of P.Poroshenko, returning to the past – by those who support Y.Boyko and V.Rabinovych.

42% of the polled stated they would look for an alternative among the new parties in the upcoming parliamentary elections, while 38% said they would vote for parliamentary political forces. The willingness to vote for the parties that are not represented in the parliament is higher among the supporters of Sluha Narodu, Za Zhyttia, Svoboda, and also among those who are not determined. Instead, among the supporters of the parliamentary political forces such as BPP Solidarnist, Batkyvshchyna, Radical Party, and Opposition Bloc those who will elect "experienced" political projects are dominating.
Two-thirds of the respondents are convinced that the 2019 presidential elections will not be honest, only 16% share the opposing opinion. A quarter failed to answer this question. The sympathizers of Y.Boyko and V.Rabinovych, as well as those who do not intend to vote at all, are most strongly convinced of the dishonesty of the forthcoming elections.
43% of the polled believe that a candidate with significant experience in state administration should become the next President of Ukraine. Almost the same number believes that it is better to have a new person even without any experience of state administration. The request for "new faces" is the highest among the sympathizers of V.Zelenskiy and S.Vakarchuk, the demand for an experienced politician - among the sympathizers of P.Poroshenko and Y.Tymoshenko.
The termination of hostilities in the East of Ukraine is the main requirement to the future President of Ukraine (66%). 49% expect him to strengthen the fight against corruption, 34% - to increase social standards, 33% - to revive the industry, 24% - to improve the quality of healthcare, every sixth - to reduce the influence of oligarchs on politics, revive the agrarian sector, and stimulate business development. Over the past few months, requests for the termination of hostilities, increase of social standards and healthcare quality, as well as business development stimulating have increased.
Young and middle-aged people are more likely to expect the intensification of the fight against corruption, the revival of industry, and the stimulation of business development, while older people are more likely to look forward to increasing of the social standards and healthcare quality.
The leader of electoral preferences in the presidential rating is Yulia Tymoshenko - 13.2% of all respondents are ready to give their votes for her. 7.8% are ready to support V.Zelenskiy, P.Poroshenko - 6.8%, A.Hrytsenko - 6.6%, Y.Boyko - 5.7%, V.Rabinovych - 5.4%, O. Lyashko - 5.2%, S.Vakarchuk - 5.0%. The rating of other candidates is less than 2.5%. 17.0% have not determined with the choice, not plan to vote. 
Support for Y.Tymoshenko is more or less equal in all macro-regions with an emphasis on the Center. V.Zelenskiy is more supported in the Center and South, P.Poroshenko and A.Hrytsenko - in the West. Y.Boyko and V.Rabinovych traditionally have the best indicators in the Southern and Eastern regions.
Rating of the so-called "second choice" shows that, in theory, A.Hrytsenko, Y.Tymoshenko, and V.Zelenskiy could still be supported by up to 5% of the respondents, provided their main favorite is not to take part in the elections. Under such conditions, S.Vakarchuk could be support by 4.4% of the voters, V.Rabinovych – by 3.8%, A.Sadoviy - 3.4%, O.Lyashko - 2.8%, V.Nalivaychenko - 2.2 %, O.Shevchenko – 2.2%.
Antirating of the politicians is still headed by P.Poroshenko. A half of the voters would not have voted for him under any circumstances. A quarter of the respondents would not have supported O.Lyashko, Y.Tymoshenko, A. Yatsenyuk, and Y.Boyko, almost every sixth - V.Rabinovych and O.Tyahnybok.
Over the last month, the number of those who believe in the victory of Y.Tymoshenko and P.Poroshenko in the upcoming presidential elections has increased. 18% of the polled are convinced that Yulia Tymoshenko is to become the next President of Ukraine. 14% are sure that it’s P.Poroshenko who will become the President. The number of those who believe that other politicians will become the President is less than 4%. Almost a half of the respondents were unable to answer this question.
Only one-third of the respondents stated they were ready to take part in the demonstrations or other mass events in support of a candidate for which they are ready to vote. 62% said they did not have such intentions. Most of those who would have participated in such activities was recorded among the supporters of V.Zelenskiy, S.Vakarchuk, and A.Hrytsenko.
One-third of the polled are ready to vote for a different politician than the one they are currently supporting in case their favorite stops participating in the advantage of another candidate. 20% said that in this case they would vote for another candidate rather than support the one promoted by their favorite. Every fifth said that in this case they would not have participated in the elections, a quarter - have not decided on the answer. Almost a half of the sympathizers of P.Poroshenko, Y.Tymoshenko, Y.Boyko, and V.Rabinovych stated that they could vote for the candidate in whose favor their main favorite would be withdrawn. Among the voters of A.Sadoviy, O.Lyashko, A.Hrytsenko, S.Vakarchuk, and V.Zelenskiy there are 40% of such respondents. Within the regional context, there are some differences in attitudes towards changing their minds in case of possible withdrawal of the main candidate: the voters in the South and East more often declared their reluctance to participate in the elections under such conditions as compared to the residents of the West and Center.
The leader of the parties’ rating is Batkyvshchyna - 14% of all respondents are currently ready to support this force. 8.2% could vote for the party Sluha Narodu, 6.4% - Za Zhyttia, 6.2% - Civic position, 5.9% - BPP Solidarnist, 5.8% - Opposition Bloc, 4,6% - Radical party, 3.4% - Samopomich, 2.7% - Svoboda. The rating of other parties is below 2%. 17.1% have not decided on their preferences, 14.4% - do not intend to participate in the parliamentary elections.
The support for Batkyvshchyna is relatively equal in all macro-regions; still, its popularity is the highest in the Center. Parties Za Zhyttia and Opposition Bloc have the highest rates in the South and East,  Civic position - in the West and Center, Sluha Narodu - in the Center and South, BPP Solidarnist, Samopomich, and Svoboda - in the West.
Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 2500 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 2.0%. Period of the survey: 10-18 September 2018

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