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Мониторинг местных выборов 2020: УКРАИНА (16-19 октября 2020)


Date posted: 20.10.2020 Print Full version

•    The results of the survey carried out by the Sociological Group Rating (16-19 October) revealed a gradual increase of positive expectations from local elections since the beginning of the survey (early September, 2020). These days, 34% of respondents believe the situation in their city / village will improve as a result of the elections. 52% think that nothing will change. Only 6% believe the situation will get worse. The growth of optimism is recorded in all age categories.

•    61% of the polled declared their intention to vote in the local elections. 18% doubt about participation (50/50), 7% are likely to participate, and 13% - unlikely to participate. The voters’ mobilization in the younger and middle-aged groups has been gradually increasing.

•    In case of the coronavirus situation worsening, 51% of the polled declare their intention to participate in the elections; 21% doubt about participation (50/50), 9% are likely to come to the polling stations, 17% - unlikely. Over the last two weeks, the number of those who are ready to come to the polling stations has increased, even in case the epidemic situation gets worse.

•    58% of the polled said they had already decided who to vote for, 40% - have not. Among those who said they would definitely come to the polling stations, 73% had decided on the choice. Relatively higher level of certainty was recorded among the oldest respondents.

•    According to the results of the aggregate rating of parties in the local elections, five parties overcome the conditional 5% hurdle: “Sluha Narodu” - 16.7% of those who have decided and intend to come to the polling stations, “Opposition Platform – Za Zhyttia” – 13.5%, "European Solidarity" - 13.2%, "Batkivshchyna" - 8.6%, and "Za Maybutnye" - 7.4%.

•    “Nash Krai” party is supported by 4.0%; “Radical Party” of O.Lyashko - 3.3%, “UDAR” of Vitaliy Klytschko - 2.7%, “Svoboda” - 2.3%, “Shariy Party” - 1.9%, "Propozytsiya" - 1.6%, "Holos" - 1.4%, "Syla i Chest" - 1.2%, "Peremoha” of Palchevskiy - 0.9%. The total rating of other parties (mostly local) participating in the local elections and included in the survey list is 21.3%.

•    48% believe there will be minor fraud in the local elections. 28% are convinced the fraud will be significant. 16% believe there won’t be any fraud at all. Over the last month, the number of those expecting for significant fraud has increased.

•    62% of respondents reveal a negative attitude towards the situation when during the elections some politicians and parties provide financial help for the voters (distribute rations, money, funds for repairs and treatment); 19% are neutral, 15% - positive. Despite this, only 6% have faced bribery attempts in person, 11% know about it from relatives and friends. 81% have had no such experience during this election campaign.

•    57% have heard about the Government's recommendations to vote in the elections with a personal pen; 42% - have not heard. Only one-third know about the recommendation not to take children with them to the polling station; 65% do not know. The number of the latter is higher among those with children under 16. Nevertheless, 87% support such a recommendation, only 10% share the opposing opinion.

Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all oblasts, except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, and settlement type. Total sample: 5000 respondents. Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. The margin of error does not exceed 1.4%. Period of the survey: 16-19 October, 2020

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