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Мониторинг местных выборов 2020: УКРАИНА (19-22 сентября)

Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE (19-22 September)

Date posted: 24.09.2020 Print Full version

•    The results of the second wave of the survey (September 19-22) of Sociological Group Rating revealed that respondents still have quite conflicting feelings when assessing the situation in their cities and in the country in general. Thus, 58% of respondents said they felt hope when they had been thinking about the local situation, 38% at the same time felt disappointment. On the other hand, when it comes to the situation in the country, the opposite is true: 59% are disappointed and 37% feel hope.

•    Despite this, 71% of the polled want their children and grandchildren to live in Ukraine. Only 16% share the opposing opinion. Regarding living in their city and village, 61% would like their descendants to continue living in these areas, while one-third would not like. Interestingly, rural citizens are relatively more inclined to support the next generation staying in Ukraine, although they are relatively more in favor of their children and grandchildren changing place of residence. On the other hand, the situation is quite the opposite in the regional centers.

•    Positive expectations from local elections have been gradually growing. One-third of respondents (last time - a quarter) expect for positive changes in their cities and villages after October 25. A half believes that nothing will change, only 7% expect deterioration.

•    55% of the polled said they would definitely vote in the local elections. 21% of respondents are not sure (50/50); 8% might participate. 15% of the polled said they were unlikely to participate in the elections. The oldest categories of the population (about 70%) are relatively more likely to participate in the elections. Among young people (18-29 years old) only one-third state their intention to come to the polling stations. Within all age groups, except the oldest, there has been a gradual decrease in interest in voting.

•    Possible worsening of the coronavirus situation has a negative impact on voters’ proactivity. Under such conditions, only 45% declare their readiness to participate in the elections. 23% still have not decided on the matter (50/50), 10% declare their possible participation, 21% - unlikely to vote. The simulation of such a situation shows the readiness to participate in the elections within all age categories.

•    According to the results of the aggregate rating of parties in the local elections, five parties overcome the conditional 5% hurdle: “Sluha Narodu”  - 15.6% of those who have decided and intend to vote; “Opposition Platform – Za Zhyttia” - 11, 5%, “European Solidarity” - 11.0%, “Batkivshchyna” - 8.0%, and “Za Maybutnye” - 5.9%. Over the last week, the top four parties in the top five (parliamentary parties) have lost a total of almost 1.5%.

•    “Radical Party” of Oleh Lyashko is supported by 4.4%. 3.4% are ready to vote for “UDAR” of Vitaliy Klytschko, 3.3% - for “Svoboda”, 3.0% - “Shariy Party”, 2.7% “Holos; “Nash Krai” and “Peremoha Party” of Palchevskiy - 2.4% each, “Propozytsiya” party - 2.1%, “Syla i Chest” - 1.5%, “Samopomich” - 1.2%. The total rating of other parties participating in the local elections and included in the survey list is 21.8%.

•    Comparing the level of trust, 35% said they trusted local authorities more, 17% - central authorities. 17% trust government officials at both levels. A quarter does not trust anyone.

•    55% believe local authorities are closer to the people than the central ones, only 9% think the opposite. Relatively higher number of those thinking the local authorities are closer to the people was recorded among the rural citizens.

•    In terms of professionalism, 31% of respondents are in favor of the local authorities, 22% - the central ones. 18% consider both levels of government to be professional, 19% - neither of them. More often local authorities are considered to be professional in regional centers.

•    On the other hand, in terms of honesty, relatively higher number of respondents (33%) are not in favor of any level of authorities. 27% believe the local authorities are more honest, only 13% think the same about the central ones, 15% - about both levels.

•    39% believe the situation in their locality has improved due to the decentralization of power; 36% think it has not changed and only 16% have seen deterioration. Half of the respondents do not notice any threat of a split in the country due to the process of decentralization; one-third shares the opposing opinion. The number of the latter is higher among older respondents and rural citizens.

•    Respondents believe that control over the activities of the newly elected local authorities should be performed by the citizens themselves (50%). Other institutions (public organizations, central and local authorities, law enforcement agencies) are less trusted in terms of control (5% to 14%).

•    Moreover, a significant number of the polled do not mind participating in the political and social life of their region (45%), but not as members of local councils, but through elections and delegating responsibility to others.

•    Only 13% of respondents would like to be members of the local council, 9% - members of parliament, 7% - mayor of the city / village, 5% - president.

•    At the same time, citizens want to elect not only deputies or mayors, but also the head of the oblast (83% of support), local judges (71%), and prosecutors (68%). 57% support the idea of creating a municipal police subordinated to local authorities (30% - against).

Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all oblasts, except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, and settlement type. Total sample: 5000 respondents. Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. The margin of error does not exceed 1.4%. Period of the survey: 19-22 September, 2020.


Общая выборка: 5000 респондентов


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