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Мониторинг местных выборов 2020: УКРАИНА (25-28 сентября 2020)

Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE (25-28 September, 2020)

Date posted: 01.10.2020 Print Full version

•    The results of the III wave of the survey (September 25-28) carried out by the Sociological Group Rating revealed that respondents mainly trust the institutions responsible for local elections performance. Thus, 74% of respondents trust the employees of the polling stations’ committees at their place of residence (21% - do not trust). 61% of respondents trust the Central Election Committee (35% do not trust). Compared to the period of the last parliamentary elections (July 2019), trust in these institutions has increased.

•    One-third of respondents expect for positive changes in their cities and villages as a result of the October 25 elections. Half believes nothing will change, only 7% expect for deterioration. The last two waves reveal positive dynamics considering this indicator in terms of all age categories.

•    56% of respondents said they would definitely vote in the local elections. 20% are unsure on the matter (50/50), 8% would possibly vote. 15% of respondents said they were unlikely to participate in the elections. Over the last 4 waves, the proactivity indicators have stabilized somewhat.

•    According to the results of the aggregate rating of parties participating in the local elections, five parties overcome the conditional 5% hurdle: "Sluha Narodu" - 15.5% of those who have decided and intend to vote; "European Solidarity" - 11.4%, "Opposition platform – Za Zhyttia" - 11.4%, "Batkyvshchyna" - 8.3%, and "Za maybutnye" - 6.2%.

•    “Radical Party” of Oleh Lyashko is supported by 4.9%. 3.1% are ready to give their votes for "Nash Krai" and “UDAR” of Vitaliy Klytschko; "Svoboda" - 3.0%, “Shariy Party” - 2.5%, "Syla i Chest" - 2.0%, “Propozytsiya” and “Holos” parties - 1.8% each, “Peremoha” of Palchevskyi - 1.7%. The total rating of other parties participating in the local elections and included in the survey list is 23.4%.

•    The majority of respondents (60-70%) believe it is more important for parties at the local level to have a strong local leader than well-known national; likewise, experienced politicians are more important than “new faces”, and a good team – more than a strong leader.

•    59% believe socio-economic initiatives are more important for the party at the local level than its ideological position (14%).

•    34% think it is more important for the local party to support policy of President Zelensky, while 26% believe it is more important to create an opposition to the current president. At the same time, for almost 40%, the factor of government support does not influence the choice.

•    45% believe it is more important for the mayoral candidate to solve relevant problems. At the same time, almost as many (43%) are convinced that it is more important for him to offer a development strategy of the locality. It is remarkably that strategy is more important for older respondents, while relevant issues - for youth.

•    One-third of the polled are ready to support the current mayor in the elections, the same number is more likely to support another candidate; 35% have not decided on this issue. 58% would elect the current head of the city / village because they believe he is a strong mayor, 16% - because he is a good person, 20% - because other candidates are worse.

•    Over 90% know who their mayor is. 60% once personally met the head of their locality (primarily villagers).

•    47% know who their electoral district People's Deputy is, 50% do not know. Only one-third had ever met him in person. The People's Deputy from the district is more often known by rural residents than by those urban. Also, rural residents more often have met him/her in person.

Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all oblasts, except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, and settlement type. Total sample: 5000 respondents. Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. The margin of error does not exceed 1.4%. Period of the survey: 25-28 September, 2020


Общая выборка: 5000 респондентов


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