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Мониторинг местных выборов 2020: УКРАИНА (4-7 октября 2020)

Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE (4-7 October, 2020)

Date posted: 07.10.2020 Print Full version

•    The results of the IV wave of the survey (October 4-7) carried out by the Sociological Group Rating recorded an increase in public awareness of the local elections.

•    58% of respondents know the elections will take place on October 25, 14% said they would take place this month, 2% named another month and date. At the same time, 26% either know nothing on the matter or hesitated to answer. In mid-September, only one-third knew the exact date of the local elections.

•    20% said they knew which system local elections would be held in (13% in September). 26% mentioned their partial awareness of the issue. At the same time, more than half (55%) know nothing about it.

•    Over the last four years, there has been a growing belief in the importance of one's own vote during the elections. Thus, in 2016-2017, nearly a half of the polled said their vote did not solve anything; this year – one-third. More than half share the opposing opinion. Most of the latter were recorded among the residents of Kyiv, Galicia, younger respondents, and those who declared their definite intention to participate in the elections.

•    For one-third of the polled, it is more important who will become head of the city / village as result of the local elections; almost three times less (13%) find it more important which parties will run for their local head and which political forces would come to power.

•    81% of respondents said that while choosing who to vote for in the local elections, they make their own decisions. Along with that, 15% more often consult with relatives. Most of the latter were recorded among the youngest and at the same time among the oldest respondents, rural residents, women, and in the Western Ukraine.

•    37% stated they often followed local politics and local authorities’ decisions; 31% - sometimes, 20% - rarely, 8% - are not interested in these issues at all.

•    27% discuss local elections with family members, relatives, or colleagues; 32% - sometimes, 23% - rarely, 14% - do not talk about these issues at all. The number of those who discuss local elections with their relatives is higher among senior respondents.

•    58% of respondents stated their intention to participate in the local elections. 21% were unsure (50/50), 8% - would likely participate, 13% - unlikely. In case of the coronavirus situation worsening, 46% confirmed their readiness to take part in the elections, 23% were unsure (50/50), 9% - likely to come to the polling stations, 21% - unlikely. Over the last week, the trends regarding the declared voting have hardly changed.

•    According to the information of the local election committees, the fourth wave of the poll has been adjusted in terms of the lists of parties nominating their candidates to the oblast councils. A total of 77 different parties were included in the ranking, the vast majority of which are local parties running for one or more oblast councils.

•    According to the results of the aggregate rating of parties participating in the local elections as of October 7, five parties overcome the conditional 5% hurdle: "Sluha Narodu" - 17.2% of those who have decided and intend to vote; "Opposition platform – Za Zhyttia" - 12.6%, "European Solidarity" - 11.7 %, "Batkyvshchyna" – 7.5%, and "Za maybutnye" - 7.2%. Almost all of these parties have improved their results over the last week.

•    “Nash Krai” party is supported by 4.0%. Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko - 3.9%, “UDAR” of Vitaliy Klytschko - 3.0%, “Shariy Party” - 2.6%, “Svoboda” - 2.4%, “Holos”, “Peremoha of Palchevskiy”, and “Syla iChest"- 1.6% each, “Propozytsiya”- about 1%. The total rating of other parties (mostly local) participating in the local elections and included in the survey list is 22.2%.

Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all oblasts, except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, and settlement type. Total sample: 5000 respondents. Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. The margin of error does not exceed 1.4%. Period of the survey: 4-7 October, 2020

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