MOODS AND ASSESSMENT OF THREATS BY UKRAINIANS

• Considering the direction of development at the local level, negative moods are also dominating. Thus, 64% of the respondents state the wrong direction of the region's development (only 20% think it is right). 58% are negative while assessing the situation in their place of residence (28% are positive).

 

• According to the majority of the polled (67%), peace is the thing that Ukraine lacks the most these days; meanwhile, over the last six months, this figure has increased from 62% to 67%. 40% believe that the state lacks stability the most, 37% - order, 34% - prosperity, 31% - development, 28-30% - unity and justice. The issue of peace is somewhat more relevant for the West, South, and Donbas; stability - for the capital region and the Southern and Eastern regions, development - for the Center, North, South, and East, unity - for the Galicia and the Donbas. Issues of order, justice, and prosperity are more or less equally relevant for all the respondents in almost all macro-regions.

 

• 81% of the polled expressed their willingness to vote in the presidential elections (45% are definitely ready, 36% - rather ready). 

 

• The leader of the presidential rating is V.Zelensky - 21.9% of those who have decided on the choice and intend to vote are ready to support him. Y.Tymoshenko is supported by 19.2% of the respondents, P.Poroshenko – by 14.8%, Y.Boyko - 10.4%, A.Hrytsenko - 8.4%, O.Lyashko - 6.5%, Y.Murayev - 3.4%, A.Sadovyi - 2.4%, O.Shevchenko - 2.2%. The rating of other candidates is less than 2%.

 

• At the same time, almost every fifth voter believes that Y.Tymoshenko will become the next president (22.1%). 16.6% of those who intend to participate in the elections believe in the victory of P.Poroshenko, 11.1% - V.Zelensky, 4.1% - Y.Boyko. Less than 3% of the respondents believe that other politicians can take the highest public office.

 

• Anti-rating of the politicians is headed by P.Poroshenko. Half of the polled would not vote for him under any circumstances. Almost 30% of the polled would not cast their votes for Y.Tymoshenko, about a quarter – for Y.Boyko and A.Yatsenyuk, every fifth – for O.Lyashko.

 

• There are six political forces with significant chances to enter the Parliament. Batkyvshchyna remains the leader of the rating - 21.2% of those who have already decided on the choice and intend to vote are ready to support it. The support for the “Sluha Narodu" party is 19.0%, BPP Solidarnist - 13.0%, Opposition Platform "Za Zhyttia" - 10.5%, Civic Position - 8.6%, Radical Party - 6.5%. Samopomich and “Nashy” party of Y.Murayev also demonstrate certain chances to overcome the electoral barrier (3.8% and 3.3% respectively). The rating of other political forces is below 3%.

 

• More than one-third of the respondents expect the level of optimism, sense of confidence in the future, political and economic situation in the country to improve after the presidential elections. On the other hand, 33% to 39% do not expect any changes in these areas.

 

• Meanwhile, 28% of the polled expect their households’ economic situation improvement after the elections; 40% have no expectations regarding changes in this area. Improvement of the situation at place of work (career, education) is expected by 22%, not expected – by 50%. It is important to consider, over the last month, positive expectations have improved in terms of all directions. The most often optimistic expectations were expressed by the voters of P.Poroshenko, Y.Tymoshenko, and V.Zelensky.

 

• The extensive migration of Ukrainians abroad (55%), economic decline (52%), and poverty of the population (47%) are the main threats, which, according to the respondents, are most relevant for Ukraine these days.

 

• About 30% to 39% of the respondents mention among the threats such issues as hryvnia devaluation, full-scale war with Russia, nation’s health deterioration, collapse of the country, crime increase, and population extinction. The population's degradation, anarchy, and ecological catastrophes are considered to be relevant threats by about a quarter of the polled. Every sixth to seventh respondent speaks of possible mass riots, hunger, and dictatorship establishment. The economic decline was chosen as a threat more often in the South and East, a full-scale war with Russia - in the Galicia, West, and Center, inflation - in the capital region, Center, North, and Donbas. It is noticeable that the voters of Y.Boyko, O.Vilkul, and Y.Murayev mentioned the threat of population poverty more often than others, while the sympathizers of A.Hrytsenko, R.Koshulinskyi, V.Nalivaychenko, P.Poroshenko, and A.Sadovyi were more likely to speak of the possible war with Russia.

 

• More than half of the respondents expressed their unwillingness to take part in protest actions to protect their rights and interests. 37% are ready to protest if needed. Over the last few months, the level of protest moods has decreased (52% in November). The highest level of protest moods is recorded in the Galicia, the lowest - in the Donbas. 

 

 

Results of the joint poll of Social Monitoring Center, Ukrainian Institute of Social Research of O.Yaremenko, Info Sapiens Company, and Sociological Group Rating. 

Sample: 10,000 respondents in all regions of Ukraine (excluding the population of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). The sample is representative for the population aged 18 and older in terms of gender, age, settlement type, and region of residence. The margin of error does not exceed 1,0%. Period of the survey: 19-30 January, 2019