Estimation of 2016 events and socio-political moods of population

According to the results of the Sociological group "Rating" research in December of this year, among the events which took place in 2016, respondents defined as the most successful such as the victory of Dzhamala in a song competition Eurovision and the performance of Ukrainian team at the Paralympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. 

Also, among the successes of the year, respondents defined the Governmental initiative to increase the minimum wage level to 3200 UAH, the introduction of an electronic declaration of officials’ incomes, the performance of Ukrainian team at the Paralympic Games in Brazil, the release of Nadiya Savchenko from the Russian captivity. Respondents are inclined to consider as relatively successful: the launch of public procurement procedures implementation via the electronic system Prozorro, the decline of import excise on used vehicles, the increase of military efficiency of army, the introduction of mechanism of competitive officials' selection, and entering into force of Agreement on free trade zone with EU.

Ambiguous estimations were given to the decentralization reform, the participation of Ukrainian football team at EURO-2016 Championship, the implementation of quotas on Ukrainian-language songs on the radio, and de-communization process.

Among the failures, respondents defined the negotiations with EU regarding granting Ukraine with the visa-free regime, the negotiations on settlement of the situation in Donbas, and the investigation of murders on Maidan Nezalezhnosty in Kyiv in February 2014. The lowest estimations on a "success-failure" scale were given to the fight against corruption, the situation with housing and communal services tariffs, the exchange rate, and the prices on basic food products and services.

Among all public policy directions in 2016 respondents gave the top rates to the work in the field of country’s defensive capacity. 41% of the polled considers that authorities’ politics in this area was successful, at the same time almost 50% demonstrate opposite opinion. It should be noted that as compared to the beginning of 2016, the number of those who admit positive aspects in this field has grown (in January of this year the number of such was 34%).  

28% of the polled consider the police reform as successful, 65% - as unsuccessful. The number of those who estimate these authorities’ activities positively has declined since the beginning of the year in one and a half time.

22% of respondents consider the decentralization as successful, 62% - did not see any positive aspects in this direction. Since the beginning of the year the number of those who has estimated this reform positively has also grown in more than one and a half time.

Negotiations with the European Union on granting Ukraine with the visa-free regime were estimated positively by 18%, negatively - by 74%. During the half-year, the number of those who consider this sphere of policy to be unsuccessful has grown - in January of this year there was 54% of such respondents.

9% of respondents consider the politics in the field of social protection of population as successful, 87% - unsuccessful. Considering the annual dynamics, insignificant positive changes can be noticed; the number of those who admit the positive aspects regarding this question has somewhat grown (from 5% to 9%).

9% consider as successful such direction of politics as support of small and midsize business, 77% - as unsuccessful; the fight against corruption is considered to be successful by 8%, unsuccessful – 89%; judicial system reform 8% consider as successful, 84% - as failure; politics in the health protection field – 7 and 89% relatively; reduction of oligarchs’ influence on politics – 6 and 89% relatively. Along with that, as compared to the previous year, the polled marked insignificant progress in such spheres as the fight against corruption, judicial system reform, support of small and midsize business, and health protection.

Over 90% of the polled stated as unsuccessful the authorities’ activity in the spheres of national currency stabilization, housing and communal services, and economic growth. 

Only 16% of the polled are satisfied with the activity of the President of Ukraine P.Poroshenko, 82 – are not satisfied. Similar situation with the estimation of activity of the Prime Minister V.Hroisman: 16% of respondents declared satisfaction with his activity, 78% - dissatisfaction. Almost 11% are satisfied with the activity of the Head of Verkhovna Rada A.Parubiy, 82% - are not satisfied.

12% of the polled are satisfied with the activity of the Parliamentary opposition, 78% - are not satisfied; considering the coalition, the estimation is even worth: only 6% are satisfied, 86% - not satisfied.

"Batkivshchyna" is the leader of electoral preferences among political parties. In the case of pre-term elections in the nearest time, this political force can gain 16% of the voices of those who intend to participate in voting and have decided with the choice of party. 11,8% are ready to support BPP "Solidarnist", 11,7% - Opposition block, 8,5% - Radical party, 8,6% - "Samopomich", 6,7% - Civil position, 5,9% - "For life", the same number - "Svoboda", 2,7% - UKROP, 2,5% - Movement of new forces of М.Saakashvili. Rating of other political forces remains less than 2%.

In the rating of candidates for the post of the President of Ukraine, Y.Tymoshenko holds the leading position. In the case of pre-term elections in the nearest time, 17,7% of respondents are ready to support her (among those who would participate in voting and have decided with their electoral preferences). 13,5% would vote for P.Poroshenko, 10,4% - Y.Boyko, 8,8% - O.Lyashko, 8,4% - A.Sadoviy, 8,1% - A.Hrytsenko, 7,3% - V.Rabinovych, 4,9% - O.Tyahnybok, 3,5% - D.Yarosh, 1,8% - N.Savchenko, 0,9% - A.Byletsky.

Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative by age, sex, regions, and settlement type. Total sample: 2000 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 2,2%. Period of the survey: 8-18 December 2016