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Оценки избирательного процесса: намерения и мотивы голосования, доверие и симпатии

Assessment of the election process: intentions and reasons for voting, trust and sympathies

Date posted: 11.03.2019 Print Full version

 • According to the survey conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” in the beginning of the March, 2019, almost two-thirds of the polled said they always took part in the elections, and 22% - almost always. 4% of the respondents said they would vote for the first time. Only 10% vote either almost never or never. The highest number of the latter was recorded among the youngest respondents and residents of Kiev.

83% of the respondents to some degree declare their readiness to take part in the presidential elections on March 31, 2019. Among the sympathizers of all rating candidates, the willingness to vote is expressed by about 80% of the polled. Relatively lower mobilization is observed among the youngest age groups (18-25 and 26-35 years old) and in Kyiv.
At the same time, evaluation of the probability of voting on March 10, 2019 using 10-point scale revealed that only two-thirds expressed the highest level of confidence that they would come to the polls. The number of such is somewhat lower among the youngest age group of 18-25 (46%) and those who are still concerned about the choice (64%). Among those who always vote in the elections, this figure is more than 80%. At the same time, among those who said they almost always participated in the elections this number equals 42%, and among those who will vote for the first time - 55%.
82% indicated that they knew exactly where their polling station was located. The relatively lower level of awareness of the place of voting is observed among the younger respondents, residents of Kyiv and Donbas, those who will vote for the first time or vote very rarely in the elections.
Meanwhile, only 18% of the polled have already checked for the presence of their surname on the voter list.
44% of the respondents usually vote in the morning - from 8 to 12 am. 22% mostly vote from 12 to 15 pm, 10% - from 15 to 18 pm and only 5% - after 18 pm. In the morning, mostly the oldest voters prefer to vote, while young people prefer afternoon hours. Within the regional context, the number of those who vote in the morning is relatively higher among the citizens of the Southern and Central regions, as well as Donbas, while in Galicia people are relatively more inclined to vote between 12 and 15 pm. Among those who usually vote in the elections, the majority proceeds with this in the morning and the highest number of such is among the voters of Y.Tymoshenko, Y.Boyko, and O.Lyashko.
Only one-third of the respondents expressed their readiness to stand in the queue at the polling station for more than one hour. At the same time, one-third is ready to wait in line for up to half an hour, and every fifth – up to one hour. The most "persistent " voter - in the East, North, and Galicia, among the oldest respondents, voters of O.Vilkul and Y.Boyko. Instead, the sympathizers of V.Zelensky, O.Lyashko and those who have not made their choice, expressed the least willingness to stand in line for a long time to cast their vote.
74% of the polled indicated that they were ready to sacrifice their leisure time in order to vote in the elections; at the same time, 16% oppose the idea and would rather spend time with their friends and would not go to the polls if they had to choose one thing. The highest number of the latter was recorded among the youngest respondents (18-25 years old - 34%, 26-35 - 23%), those who will vote for the first time (30%) and rarely participate in the elections (45%).
Among the actors of the election process, international observers are the most trusted (71%). Non-governmental organizations observers, law enforcement officers ensuring order at polling stations, polling station staff, and sociologists conducting exit polls are trusted by nearly two-thirds of the respondents. Observers from candidates - 58%, Central Election Committee - only 49% (38% do not trust).
Among the presidential candidates Volodymyr Zelensky gains a relatively higher level of trust (43%). Yulia Tymoshenko (28%), Anatoliy Hrytsenko (26%), and Petro Poroshenko (24%) also have a high level of trust. Oleh Lyashko is trusted by 19% of respondents, Yuriy Boyko – by 18%, Andriy Sadoviy - 17%, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk - 16%, Oleksandr Shevchenko - 13%, Ihor Smeshko - 13%, Oleksandr Vilkul - 12%, Yvgeniy Murayev - 10%.
At the same time, Petro Poroshenko (69%) and Oleh Lyashko (71%) gain the highest level of distrust.
The leader of the presidential rating is V.Zelensky – he is supported by 24.7% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Y.Tymoshenko (18.3%) takes the second position, P.Poroshenko (16.8%) - the third. 10.3% are ready to give their votes for A.Hrytsenko, for Y.Boyko - 9.9%, O.Lyashko - 5.7%, I.Smeshko - 3.3%, O.Vilkul and Y.Murayev – 2.7% each.
Over the last week, A.Hrytsenko and Y.Tymoshenko have strengthened their positions.
Nearly a quarter have not decided on the choice of a candidate. It is important that the highest number of such was recorded among the poorest voters (who are usually the most proactive voters in the elections), as well as among elderly and middle-aged people, women in the Center and West of the country.
V. Zelensky has the strongest electoral positions in the Southern and Eastern regions. In Kyiv and the Center, he is competing with Y.Tymoshenko and P.Poroshenko. The latter has strong positions in Galicia and West. Batkyvshchyna leader - in the Central and Western regions and in the North of the country. The highest level of support for A.Hrytsenko is in Galicia, for Y.Boyko - in the South and East and especially in the Donbas.
V. Zelensky leads among the respondents who will vote for the first time (almost every tenth voter of the candidate), as well as among those who do not often vote in the elections. Meanwhile, among the respondents who always vote, he shares the championship with Y.Tymoshenko and P.Poroshenko; A.Hrytsenko and Y.Boyko also have relatively better positions within this category.
22% of the respondents believe that the next president will be P.Poroshenko. 20% believe in the victory of Y.Tymoshenko, 18% - V.Zelensky. V.Zelensky and Y.Tymoshenko have positive dynamics considering this indicator. At the same time, the indicators of P.Poroshenko have somewhat weakened over the week.
50% of the polled indicate that their choice was guided by their belief that the candidate they support could bring changes in the country. One-third chooses their favorite because he has a country's development program, a quarter - because of the belief that the candidate will lead the country in the right direction or he has experience in public administration. Every fifth votes because the candidate is opposing the existing system.
Such reasons as changes expectation and protest against the system are the most relevant for the supporters of Zelensky. On the other hand, the country's development program, the presence of a strong team, and leadership qualities are most likely to inspire the voters of Tymoshenko and Poroshenko. The voters of the latter also most often indicated that they chose their favorite because of his experience in state administration; a similar reason was relevant for the sympathizers of Tymoshenko, Hrytsenko, and Smeshko.
Almost every tenth supporter of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and Zelensky chooses the candidate proceeding from the highest chances to win. At least every tenth supporter of Zelensky and Lyashko chooses a candidate because others are even worse. The voters of Zelensky, Lyashko, and Murayev are also motivated by personal sympathies for the candidate.
Almost three-quarters of the respondents believe that the main reason for voting for the so-called "new faces" is expectations for changes in the country, while 18% are convinced that this phenomenon is caused by the desire to take revenge on the so-called "old politicians" for what they did with the country. The latter statement has a relatively higher support among the sympathizers of P.Poroshenko, A.Hrytsenko, and Y.Tymoshenko.
It is interesting that almost every fifth respondent would like Svyatoslav Vakarchuk to take part in the presidential elections. The highest number of such voters was recorded in the Western Ukraine and Kiev, among the supporters of Hrytsenko, Zelensky, and Poroshenko.
Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 5000 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 1.5%. Period of the survey: March 1-7, 2019

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