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«ПОРТРЕТЫ РЕГИОНОВ»: ИТОГИ. Сводные данные, сравнительный анализ между областями

«PORTRAITS OF THE REGIONS»: OUTCOMES.Summary data, comparative analysis of the regions

Date posted: 26.12.2018 Print Full version

 • The Sociological Group «Rating» within the framework of the «PORTRAITS OF THE REGIONS» project, has carried out the survey on November, 16 – December, 10, 2018 among the citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all regions of Ukraine and in Kyiv (except for the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Crimea). In general, 40000 respondents (1600 respondents per each oblast) were interviewed using the personal interview method. The sample is representative in terms of settlement type, age and gender structure of each oblast. The margin of error for each specific region does not exceed 2.4%, while for the whole Ukraine it does not exceed 0.5%. 

An analysis of the survey results revealed that the situation in the country as a whole is assessed much worse as compared to the situation at the local level.

Only 6% estimated the political situation in the country as calm, while 27% think the same about the situation in their own oblast, 43% - in own city / village. Almost 58% of the respondents believe the situation in the country to be tense, 31% - critical. On the local level, the things look somewhat better: the situation is seen as tense by 38% to 49%, as critical – by only 13-15%. Within the regional context, there is no significant difference in the rates of the political situation in the country. The highest number of those who consider it to be critical was recorded in the majority of the Southern and Eastern regions, as well as in Khmelnytsky region. Instead, rates for the local level do have their regional differences: thus, the number of those who see the political situation in the region as calm is relatively higher among the residents of Ternopil and Lviv regions, and the lowest - in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson regions. Regarding the assessment of the political situation at the place of residence, the greatest number of those who estimate it as calm was recorded in Lviv and Ternopil regions, the lowest - in Kyiv city, Kherson region, and Donbas.
The right direction of the country’s movement is estimated worse (14%) than the similar indicators at the level of oblast (21%) or one’s own city / village (29%). Hence, 74% of the respondents state the wrong direction of the country’s development, 62% think the same in terms of their region, and 55% - place of residence. The lowest number of those who believe the country is moving in the right direction was recorded in Odesa, Luhansk, Kherson, and Khmelnytsky regions. At the oblast level, the right direction of the region’s development is more often recorded in Lviv and Kharkiv oblasts, less often - in the Donbas and South. Regarding the direction of development at the place of residence, the best estimates were received in Lviv, Khmelnytsky, Kharkiv, and Ternopil regions, and the worst - in Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson.
Despite the negative assessments of the state of things, the overall expectations among Ukrainians seem to be either neutral or positive. 16-18% share optimistic expectations about the future, both in Ukraine and at the local level. More than half believe the situation will not change. At the same time, 17% to 20% of the respondents expect the worsening next year.
The military conflict in the East of Ukraine (72%) and bribery and corruption within the state bodies (41%) are the main national problems according to the citizens. At the same time, considering the personal level, the polled are more concerned about the increase of tariffs for communal services (52%), low salaries and pensions (50%), and inflation (40%).
The leader of the presidential rating is Yulia Tymoshenko - 20.8% of those who have decided on the choice and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support her. 13.4% are ready to vote for V.Zelensky, P.Poroshenko - 11.1%, Y.Boyko - 9.6%, A.Hrytsenko - 7.8%, O.Lyashko - 6.6%, S.Vakarchuk - 4.6%, Y.Murayev - 4.5%, O.Shevchenko - 4.2%. The rating of other candidates is less than 3%. At the same time, almost one-third of the respondents have not yet decided on their choice of the candidate or have no intention to vote in the elections.
Y.Tymoshenko leads in all almost regions of Ukraine except Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv where Y.Boyko takes the first position. In Lviv region, she shares leadership positions with P.Poroshenko and A.Hrytsenko, in Ivano-Frankivsk oblast - with O.Shevchenko, in Mykolaiv oblast - with V.Zelensky.
Considering the annual dynamics, a considerable gradual increase in the rating of Yulia Tymoshenko is recorded since February of this year. The indicator of V.Zelensky has also increased since his appearance in the electoral ratings. The ratings of P.Poroshenko, Y.Boyko, and O.Lyashko have remained almost unchanged. The support for A.Hrytsenko and S.Vakarchuk has experienced some losses, while the support for V.Rabinovich has fallen significantly. At the same time, the level of support for A.Sadovy and Y.Murayev has remained unchanged.
21% believe that Yulia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections. Over the last year, the number of those who believe in her victory has doubled. 12.8% are sure in the victory of P.Poroshenko; this figure is somewhat lower as compared to the previous year (15%). The victory of V.Zelensky is seen by nearly 5%, Y.Boyko - 3.5%, O.Lyashko - 2.2%, A.Hrytsenko - 2.1%. Less than 2% of the polled believe in the positive result of the rest. Considering this indicator, Y.Tymoshenko leads in all regions, except Lviv, where the polled are more likely to believe in the victory of P. Poroshenko in the elections. Mainly the supporters of Y.Tymoshenko (81%) and P.Poroshenko (77%) are confident in the victory of their favorites. 
Antirating is headed by P.Poroshenko. 50.3% of those who intend to participate in the elections would not vote for him in any case. Considering this indicator, the current Head of State takes the leadership in all regions, except Lviv oblast where Y.Boyko is at the top of antirating.
The simulation of the second round of the presidential elections among all the respondents showed the following results: Y.Tymoshenko confidently wins in the pairs with P.Poroshenko (29% vs. 15%) and Y.Boyko (29% vs. 16%). She also shows better result in the pair with A.Hrytsenko (26% vs. 21%) and takes almost equal position in the pair with V.Zelensky (25% vs. 26%). Among those who intend to vote in the first round, the results are as follows: Yulia Tymoshenko is also confidently leading in the pairs with P.Poroshenko and Y.Boyko (34% vs. 18%), has the advantage against A.Hrytsenko (30% vs. 25%) and insignificant advantage against V.Zelensky (30% vs. 29%).
Within the regional cut, in the second round, given that P.Poroshenko enters it, Y.Tymoshenko leads in all regions without exception. If Y.Boyko enters the second round, the leader of Batkyvshchyna gives up to the latter in Donbas and Kharkiv oblast. Under the condition of A.Hrytsenko’s entering the second round, Y.Tymoshenko gives up to him in Lviv, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, and Cherkasy regions. V.Zelensky goes ahead of Y.Tymoshenko in the second round in most regions of the East and South; at the same time, he gives up to her in the majority of regions of the Western and Central Ukraine.
Considering the parties’ ranking, Batkyvshchyna is leading supported by 21.7% of those who have decided on the party and intend to vote in the elections. 12.4% are ready to give their votes for the party «Sluha Narodu», 9.6% - for BPP Solidarnist, Opposition Bloc - 9.5%, Civic Position - 7.8%, Radical Party - 6.5%, UKROP – 4.6%, «Nashy» party - 4.2%, Samopomich - 4.0%. The rating of other parties is less than 4%. At the same time, more than one-third of the respondents either have not decided on the party's choice or do not intend to vote at all.
Batkyvshchyna is a leader in support in all regions except Donbas and Kharkiv oblast where Opposition Bloc takes the first place in the ranking.
Considering the annual dynamics, a significant increase in the ranking of Batkyvshchyna, «Sluha Narodu», and UKROP was recorded. BPP Solidarnist has somewhat restored its positions, the indicators of Opposition Bloc, Civic Position, and Radical Party are almost unchanged. Parties "Za Zhyttia" and Samopomich have lost their support.
The candidate’s focus on closer cooperation with the European Union (62%) and his/her socio-economic program (60%) are those motives that have a significant impact on the presidential choice of the respondents. About half of the polled at the presidential election are guided by the personal leadership qualities of the candidate (57%), his/her focus on addressing primarily national problems, political experience (52%), and ability to ensure stability in the country (49%). At the same time, the candidate’s ability to make changes is important for 43%. 39% support the candidate because of his/her belonging to a new generation of politicians. 37% demand a greater focus on the regional problems’ resolving. For 34% the candidate’s strong team is of more importance. Focus on closer cooperation with Russia is a significant factor for only 17% of the respondents. Ensuring stability and the pro-Russian vector are more significant motives for the polled in the majority of the Southern and Eastern regions. The candidate’s orientation towards the resolution of the regional issues is of great importance for the voters in the Donbas and Transcarpathians.
31% of the respondents expect the situation in Ukraine to improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. 35% of the polled believe that the situation will not change, only 15% think it will worsen. Positive changes are more often expected by the supporters of Y.Tymoshenko (59%) and P.Poroshenko (50%). Positive changes are relatively less expected by the respondents who do not intend to vote (7%) or have not decided on the choice (16%). The most optimistic expectations of the upcoming presidential elections are recorded in Kyrovohrad, Ternopil, Rivne, Volyn, Vinnitsya, Cherkasy, Khmelnytsky oblasts, and Bukovina.
According to the polled, the probability of falsifications during the presidential elections at the national level is higher (51%) than in the oblast (41%) or their city / village (35%). One-third allows minor falsifications at all levels. The highest number of those who expect significant violations at the forthcoming elections at all levels was recorded in Dnipropetrovsk region; also, the number of those polled who allow falsifications at the regional level is higher in Vinnitsya and Odesa oblasts as compared to other regions.
15% of the respondents are positive about the situation when during the elections some politicians provide financial aid to the voters. 23% share a neutral position on this issue. At the same time, the majority (58%) stand against this type of campaigning. A relatively higher number of those who are either positive or neutral towards the material support provided by the candidates during the elections was recorded in Kyrovohrad, Khmelnytsky, Chernyhiv, and Odesa regions, and the lowest - in Ternopil oblast.
The activities of the central authorities were estimated worse than the performance of the local ones. 14% are satisfied with the performance of the Prime Minister V.Hroysman (79% - dissatisfied). The activities of the President Petro Poroshenko were positively estimated by 12% (82% - dissatisfied). Only 6% are satisfied with the performance of the Verkhovna Rada (88% - dissatisfied). The level of satisfaction with the local heads is higher than that of the oblast authorities: 23% are satisfied with the Oblast State Administration performance, 43% - with the local heads’ activities. Among the oblast state administrations, relatively better rates were recorded regarding the activities of Kharkiv and Lviv Oblast State Administrations, and the worst ones - in relation to Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Luhansk Oblast State Administrations. The most satisfied with the performance of the city and village heads are those polled in Khmelnytsky, Kharkiv, Lviv, and Odesa oblasts, and the least - in Kherson region.
Respondents are more likely to see an increase of corruption in Ukraine as a whole (42%) than in the oblast (32%) or their place of residence (28%). About 40-50% of the polled believe that the situation with bribery has changed neither at the central level nor at the local. Only 5-8% of the respondents declared the corruption decrease. Worst of all, the level of corruption at the central level was estimated in Dnipropetrovsk, Luhansk, Odesa, Vinnitsya, Cherkasy, and Lviv regions. At the oblast level - in Dnipropetrovsk, Luhansk, Odesa, Vinnitsya regions. At the level of one’s own place of residence - in Dnipropetrovsk, Luhansk, Odesa, Vinnytsia regions, as well as in Kyiv city.
The vast majority of the respondents are dissatisfied with the state of things in the various areas and services. With regard to school education (33%), roads (28%), and life safety (25%), the rates were relatively better. Only about 11-13% of the polled are satisfied with the state of things considering the healthcare, social protection, support of youth and young families, industrial development.
Considering the annual dynamics, in the majority of the regions, the satisfaction with the state of roads has increased. Also, the rates for the life safety, struggle against crime, and agricultural development have improved somewhat. At the same time, there was deterioration in the rates of school education and fight against corruption at the local level. As in the previous year, the respondents rated the latter sphere worst of all.
The quality of school education is relatively better assessed in Khmelnytsky region, worst of all - in Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. The life safety is most approved in Khmelnytsky and Ternopil regions, and the least - in Mykolaiv and Kherson. The state of roads received the best rates in Lviv region, and the worst - in Mykolaiv, Transcarpathian, and Sumy regions. The environment and preservation of forests are more approved in Ternopil region, totally disapproved - in Transcarpathian. The agricultural development was relatively better assessed in Kyrovohrad, Cherkasy, and Khmelnytsky regions, and the worst - in Sumy and Transcarpathian oblasts. Social protection of the population is relatively more approved in Khmelnytsky region, disapproved - in Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, and Chernyhiv regions. The healthcare is more often approved in Khmelnytsky and Zhytomyr regions. As for the support of young people, the greatest dissatisfaction was recorded in Mykolaiv and Transcarpathian oblasts. The industrial development is best rated in Zaporizhia, Khmelnytsky, and Zhytomyr regions, and the worst - in Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Chernyhiv, and Odesa. The fight against corruption at the local level is relatively better assessed in Poltava and Zhytomyr oblasts, and the worst - in Mykolayiv, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, Sumy regions and Kyiv city.
Among the opportunities in their oblast, the best rates were given to the opportunities for recreation and leisure activities; the worst – referring the success and doing business / entrepreneurship. Opportunities for leisure are the most satisfactory in Transcarpathian region, the worst - in Mykolaiv, Luhansk, and Dnipropetrovsk. In terms of finding employment, the best rates were recorded in Kyiv city, the worst - in Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Sumy regions. The opportunity to live in safety was more often mentioned in Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, and Chernyhiv regions, and the least often - in Donetsk oblast. The opportunities for entrepreneurship were relatively better assessed in Zhytomyr, Transcarpathian oblasts and Kyiv city, and the worst - in Cherkasy region. Opportunities for success were the best rated in the capital, and the worst  in Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Luhansk regions.
Only 8-9% foresee high economic potential of Ukraine, oblast, and own city / village in the next 5-10 years. About one-third estimates it at an average level. 32-36% see low potential, while 9-12% do not witness any opportunities for economic growth neither in Ukraine in general nor at the local level. The potential of the regional development is the best assessed in Transcarpathian, and the worst - in Cherkasy, Chernyhiv, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Luhansk regions.
The majority of the respondents feel proud for being Ukrainian citizens (69%). Along with that, they are even more proud to be residents of their region (74%) and their city / village (78%). At the same time, about one-third of the polled in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zaporizhia, and Odesa oblasts are not proud to be Ukrainians.
The most often, the pride for the one’s region is caused by its nature (43%) and history (40%). 27% are proud of the regional traditions; culture and art - 26%, locals - 22%, sights - 18%, natural resources - 14%, prominent people - 12%, sports achievements and cuisine - 11% each.
The pride for nature is more often mentioned in Kyiv, Khmelnytsky, Chernyhiv, Volyn, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Transcarpathian oblasts. As for the history of the region - in Lviv, Zaporizhia region, and Kyiv city; regional traditions - Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv region; culture and art - Kyiv and Lviv oblasts. Pride for local residents are the most significant in Odesa, Chernyhiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, and Transcarpathian oblasts; for sights and landmarks - in Kyiv city, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Vinnitsya regions; natural resources - in Donetsk, Kyiv, and Kharkiv regions; prominent people of the region - in Cherkasy and Donetsk regions, sports achievements - in Donetsk oblast. Cuisine is the reason for pride mostly in Transcarpathian, Kyiv, Odesa regions and in the capital; agriculture - in Chernyhiv and Kirovograd regions; industry - in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions; science and education - in Kharkiv oblast.
70% of the respondents consider themselves absolutely or rather happy people. At the same time, 22% reveal the opposite opinion. Relatively more often personal happiness was mentioned in the Western regions, rarely - in Sumy and Mykolaiv oblasts.
One-third of the polled stated the desire to start own business. 7% of the respondents indicated that they were businessmen already. In contrast, 52% indicated that they did not have such a desire. A higher level of desire to launch own business is observed among the respondents in Kyiv region, as well as in Rivne and Donetsk oblasts. Among those who revealed the desire to start own business, 31% indicated that they would like to engage in trade, 10% - construction and repair, agriculture and tourism, 8-9% - entertainments and recreation, beauty and health industry, food service and catering.
35% of the respondents expressed a desire to work abroad (compared to 32% last year), while 52% of them in the future are ready to invest earned money to launch business in Ukraine. Traditionally, a higher level of migration moods is observed among the residents of the Western regions of Ukraine.
63% believe that Ukrainian language should be the only state language. 17% stand for granting Russian language with the state status, 15% support granting it with the official status in certain regions. The highest level of support for the idea of granting Russian with any status was recorded in Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, and Odesa oblasts.
The majority of the polled (63%) believe Russia to be an aggressor country in relation to Ukraine, 24% share the opposite opinion, 13% have not decided yet. In Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Odessa regions, the number of those who do not consider Russia as an aggressor is higher than the number of those who share the opposite opinion.
54% support Ukraine's integration to the European Union (25% do not support it). The pro-European vector also prevails among the various directions of foreign economic integration – 48%. Ukraine's equidistance from the Russian Federation and the West is supported by 30%; Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union is supported by only every tenth polled. Ukraine's joining NATO is supported by 44% (33% do not support it). The number of the pro-Western vector supporters is higher in the West, the lowest - in Odesa region and Donbas.

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