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Пятнадцатый общенациональный опрос. Украина во время войны. Занятость и доходы (23-24 июля 2022 года)

Fifteenth national survey. Ukraine during the war. Employment and income (July 23-24, 2022)

Date posted: 27.07.2022 Print Full version

The Fifteenth national survey during the war, conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” on July 23-24, 2022, showed that 73% of the respondents believe that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction. 12% of the respondents have an opposite opinion, while another 15% could not make an estimate. A gradual decrease in the share of those who assess the direction of the country's development as the right one is observed. This share is shifting in favor of those who are undecided in their assessments. The assessment of the direction of the country’s development as the right one continues to dominate in all the regions of Ukraine and among all the age groups. The views differ in terms of income groups: for the poorest respondents, they are somewhat worse (63% of them consider the direction of Ukraine’s development to be right).

An increase in pessimism can be observed in the assessments of the changes in the economic situation of the respondents’ families and the country over the past six months. Despite this, when talking about the economy of Ukraine in the future, respondents voice more positive expectations than they did before the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Specifically, today, 86% of the respondents say that the economic situation of Ukraine has worsened over the past six months (70% said so in January of this year). As for the personal economic situation, 74% say it has worsened (52% in January). At the same time, 25% hope that in the next 12 months their personal economic situation will improve, a quarter believe that it will not change, and a third are pessimistic about it. At the same time, the latter share has increased compared to the one in our survey of April of this year (from 27%). On the other hand, there is an increase in the share of optimistic assessments of the future of the country: the share of those who believe that the economy will improve in the next year today is 34% (it was 32% in April). Accordingly, the share of those who expect deterioration has decreased: from 42% to 37%.

The residents of the West of Ukraine, younger respondents, those who are employed, as well as those who are better off assess their economic situation relatively better. On the other hand, no particular differences between the demographic groups are noticeable in the assessments of the dynamics of the changes in the economy of Ukraine over the past six months: negative assessments dominate everywhere. Regarding the expectations about the future, the residents of the East of Ukraine, younger people and those who are not currently working have more positive expectations about their economic situation. And regarding the expectations about Ukraine’s future, the residents of the West, South and East, those from the youngest and the oldest age groups and those who are not employed express relatively more optimistic expectations.
 
A certain reassessment of their financial stability in the times of crisis is observed among the more affluent respondents. The share of those who believe that they have enough savings – for six months or more – increased compared to March of this year. The highest share of such respondents is among the wealthiest ones and among the entrepreneurs. On the other hand, the share of those who believe that their savings will last only for a month has not changed (it is approximately 40%). The highest shares of such respondents are among the unemployed, the retired respondents, and among those who are employees in the private or public sector.
 
According to the estimates of this survey, the share of those who changed their place of residence in Ukraine stays at approximately 20%. The highest share of such respondents is among the residents the East of Ukraine (58%). Only 10% of the respondents do not intend to return to their homes (3% did not intend in April and 8% in June). 16% said that they will return soon, while 18% will return, but they are going to wait a little longer. 50% said that they intend to return, but only if the war ends – and this number is gradually growing.
 
The dynamics of resuming employment, which has been observed over the past three months, has slowed down. Today, 59% of those who had a job before the war are currently working: 34%, full-time, 19%, remotely or part-time, and 6% found a new job. On the other hand, the share of those who nevertheless lost their jobs increased (from 35% in June to 39% in July). The highest shares of the latter are among the residents of the East of Ukraine, women, the poorest respondents, those who work in the private sector or have their own business, as well as among the internally displaced persons (IDPs).
 
The dynamics by the regions shows a further increase in the share of the unemployed among the residents of the East (from 53% in June to 57% in July). A certain increase of the share of those who lost their jobs can also be noticed among the residents of the central and western regions (37% in the Center, 32% in the West).
 
Half of the employed respondents experienced a salary reduction of 10% or more. For 43% of the respondents, the salary did not change, and for 9%, it increased. The biggest shares of those who have experienced a decrease in income are among those who are currently working remotely or part-time and among the entrepreneurs. At the same time, the relative majority of civil servants retained their previous salaries.
 
The relative majority of the respondents (57%) are ready to continue working even if their salary is reduced, while 40% have a more active position (are going to look for a new job). The biggest shares of the latter are more among the young people and among those who work in the private sector or are self-employed.
 
The employed respondents are predominantly confident that they will keep their job over the next six months (83% are convinced of this). 11% are not sure. The highest share of the latter is among those whose salary has decreased by more than 50%.
 
Almost 40% of the employed respondents are confident that they would be able to find a job quickly if they lost it. 57% do not have such confidence; most often, these are older respondents, women, and public sector employees.
 
Among those who lost their jobs during the war, only a third are actively looking for one now. Another 23% are thinking about it, and 41% are taking a wait-and-see position. Older respondents, civil servants, and those with savings are less motivated than others to look for a new job.
 
Most of those who are currently looking for a new job are ready to change both the workplace and their professional field. Instead, they prefer not to move to another region or country for work. In general, the IDPs, those who work in the private sector, as well as those who have experienced a reduction in salaries are more open to changes.
 
Salary is the dominant criterion in choosing a desired job today (70%). Salary means financial security and allows to satisfy the basic needs of the individual – this level of needs is naturally the most important one during wartime. The schedule of work and the safety of the workplace are also relatively important for the respondents (23-24%), which also covers the basic level of needs. Social guarantees are important for 17%, relationships in the team, for 16%, and the opportunity to work remotely, for 10%. Such criteria as career growth, prestige and social status are on the lowest positions among the criteria for choosing a new job (3-7%), since during the war, such levels of needs are not relevant for most due to the high number of threats and risks to life. Security (the physical and material one) is far more important than career growth and status.
 
Respondents rated the opportunity to achieve success relatively better than other opportunities in Ukraine (47%). Only 26% of respondents said there is a lack of such opportunity. About a third of the respondents highly rated the opportunity to find a job and to have a stable income (the same share said there are no such opportunities). The ability to find a job was mostly rated at a medium level. About 30% believe that there are opportunities to make a career or become an entrepreneur (35-37% rated these opportunities low). The rating of the opportunities to become an entrepreneur and to achieve success has increased over the past three and a half years. 
 
Residents of the West and the East, men, young people, people with higher income, as well as those who work full-time or are entrepreneurs, rate all the opportunities higher than other respondents. Also, the more active is the position of the respondents regarding the strategy of increasing their income, the better they rate their opportunities.
 
The share of those who wish to start their own business has almost doubled: today, 45% would like to become an entrepreneur, 9% already have their own businesses, and 46% have no such desire. Residents of the West of Ukraine, young people, those who are better off, men, those who are employed in the private sector and those motivated to succeed show a greater desire to start their own business.
 
The study of the models of economic behavior showed that in the event of an abrupt reduction of income, 62% will seek additional sources of income, and 35% will reduce their expenses. 53% want to live no worse than others, while 42% want to live better than others. Half of the respondents believe that they can influence the increase of their own income, and the same share of the respondents have the opposite opinion. Therefore, the majority of Ukrainians continue to demonstrate an active life position regarding their financial situation and the opportunities for professional fulfillment in business.
 
Over the course of a year, the share of those who said that they could influence their income decreased from 60% to 50%. The war and the current socio-economic situation are objective circumstances that probably reduce the feeling of subjectivity regarding one’s own impact on income. In general, the youth, the better-off and men have a more active strategy regarding their financial opportunities, probably due to the availability of appropriate resources and the traditional value of these categories on the labor market and in business.
 
Regarding external migration, 28% would personally like to work or get a job abroad (70% would not like to). 9% would like to go abroad for permanent residence (90% would not like to). The share of those who would like to go abroad for permanent residence has critically decreased from 27% to 9% over the last two years. This is also due to the fact that a large number of Ukrainians went abroad in forced immigration. The desire to work or live abroad is more prevalent among the residents of the East, young people and men.
 
Construction (60%) and military industry (42%) are the industries that will be developing most after the war, according to the respondents. Construction is aimed at restoring the infrastructure destroyed by the war and at creating new architectural projects, while military industry means the support and strengthening of Ukraine’s defense capabilities, which will have high support and will be relevant for a long period after the war. The assessment of the potential of other sectors is the following: 34% expect the development of agriculture, 26%, healthcare, 18%, heavy industry and metallurgy, 16%, IT sphere, 13%, education and science, and 7%, transport and transportation. Regarding trade, culture, tourism, light industry, 5 to 6% of the respondents expect the development of each sector. 
 
The majority of Ukrainians are still quite optimistic about the reconstruction of the country after the war: 43% believe that five years will be enough. 28% believe that it will takes up to ten years. The share of those who see the prospect of reconstruction as a long period of more than ten years has increased (from 10% to 21%), and the share of those who believe that reconstruction will take less than a year has decreased (from 13% to 5%).
 
The share of those who are ready to personally participate in the reconstruction of the country decreased by one and a half times: from 61% to 45%. 46% indicated that they would like to, but are not able. Residents of the East of Ukraine, respondents aged 18 to 50, men, better-off people and those who have changed their place of residence are more willing to participate in the reconstruction.
 
Almost 90% of respondents believe that Russia should compensate Ukraine's economic and infrastructural losses incurred because of the war. In addition, 21% of Ukrainians believe that European countries should contribute to the compensation of losses, 18% think international organizations should do it, and 11%, the USA. The share of those who believe that Ukraine should also contribute to this has increased: from 10% to 15%.
 
Audience: the population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all regions, except for the temporarily occupied territories of the Crimea and Donbas, as well as the territories where there was no Ukrainian mobile connection at the time of the survey. The results are weighted using current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement. Sample population: 1000 respondents. Survey method: CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews). The error of representativeness of the study with the confidence interval of 0.95: no more than 3.1%. Dates: July 23-24, 2022.
 

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