The fifth national poll: Ukraine during the war (March 18, 2022)

• Half (47%) of respondents hope that Ukraine will be able to win the war with Russia over the next few weeks. A quarter (23%) believe that the war will last several months. Only 12% think that the war will end in six months or more. There are almost no people who do not believe in victory at all. 17% were not able to answer this question.

 

• Inflation and rising prices (45%) as well as fuel shortages (38%) are the threats that Ukrainians believe are likely to arise over the next few months. Depreciation of the hryvnia and disruption of the sowing campaign are believed to be likely by no more than a quarter of respondents, and hunger, by 13%. The residents of the eastern regions are slightly more afraid of these threats than the residents of other macro regions.

 

• The vast majority of the respondents (82%) consider the threat of the country being split unlikely. This confidence has increased significantly due to the public cohesion during the war.

 

• According to Ukrainians, Poland, Lithuania, the United Kingdom and the United States are the friendliest countries to Ukraine today. The Czech Republic, Romania, Moldova, Slovakia, Turkey, France and Slovenia are also considered friendly. About half of the respondents consider Hungary, Georgia and Germany to be friendly countries, while a third of the respondents consider these countries neutral.

 

• China is now mostly considered by Ukrainians to be a neutral country. However, Russia (98%) and Belarus (84%) are seen by Ukrainians as hostile countries. Attitudes toward these countries have deteriorated significantly since they started the war against Ukraine. The attitude of Ukrainians towards China has also slightly deteriorated. Almost nothing has changed in regards to Germany, Hungary, and Georgia. The attitude to Turkey, France, Poland, Lithuania, the UK, the USA and Romania has improved.

 

• This change of attitudes has been accompanied by their regional consolidation. While previously, the attitudes of the residents of the East and South of Ukraine were more neutral towards the United States and other Western countries, now these countries are seen as friendly equally by the residents of all macro regions. The same applies to hostile countries: Russia and Belarus are considered hostile countries by the vast majority of Ukrainians, regardless of place of residence.

 

• 74% of the respondents support Zelenskyy's direct talks with Putin on ending the war, while a quarter of the respondents do not. There are slightly more supporters of the direct talks in the South and in the East of Ukraine, but in other regions they comprise the majority as well.

 

• At the same time, signing a temporary truce with Russia without withdrawing its troops from Ukraine is viewed as unacceptable by Ukrainians (89%).

 

• The support for the creation of a military and political union of Ukraine, Poland and the United Kingdom increased from 61% in January to 85%. Today, the support for such an alliance is higher than the support for Ukraine's membership in NATO (72%).

 

• 44% of the respondents believe that Ukraine should join NATO, while 42% believe that Ukraine should continue to cooperate with NATO, but should not become its member. More people support NATO cooperation outside of the Alliance than before the war, a figure that has increased at the expense of those who previously said there was no need to cooperate with NATO at all (currently it’s only 7%). Most proponents of Ukraine’s accession to NATO are in the West and Center of Ukraine. Those in the South and the East of Ukraine are more supportive of the cooperation with NATO outside of the membership.

 

Audience: the population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all oblasts, except for the temporarily occupied territories of the Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative by age, sex and type of settlement. Sample population: 1000 respondents. Survey method: CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews). Error of representativeness of the study with the confidence level of 0.95: not more than 3.1%. Dates: March 18, 2022.