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Тринадцатый общенациональный опрос: внешнеполитические ориентации (18-19 июня 2022)

Thirteenth national survey: Foreign policy orientations (June 18-19, 2022)

Date posted: 20.06.2022 Print Full version

The Thirteenth national poll during the war, conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” on June 18-19, 2022, shows that 75% of the respondents believe that things in Ukraine are moving in the right direction. 13% have the opposite opinion, and another 12% could not make an assessment. The assessment of the country’s direction as the right one continues to dominate in all the regions of Ukraine and across all the age groups. 

93% of respondents believe that Ukraine will be able to repel Russia's attack. The high level of such confidence is observed among the residents of all the macro-regions and among the representatives of different age groups.

Despite the high level of confidence in Ukraine’s victory in the war, the respondents are more “sober” in their estimates of the timing of the victory. Today, the majority of them (57%) believe that it will take Ukraine at least six months or more to win. A quarter of the respondents believe in the victory in a few months, and about 6%, in a few weeks. There are slightly more those who wish the victory to happen in a shorter time among the senior respondents. Nevertheless, even in this age group, half of the respondents anticipate the victory in six months to a year period.
Polish President Duda and British Prime Minister Johnson are the foreign leaders who enjoy the highest positive attitudes among Ukrainians – over 90% (74-76% of the attitudes are completely positive, while 15-16% are rather positive). 89% of the respondents have a positive attitude to US President Biden, 73%, to Lithuanian President Nausėda, 71%, to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, 59%, to Turkish President Erdoğan, 58%, to French President Macron, and 50%, to Romanian President Iohannis (30% don’t know him). 45% of the respondents have positive attitude to the Prime Minister of Italy Draghi (25% do not know him), and 41%, to German Chancellor Scholz. Negative attitudes prevail towards Hungary's Prime Minister Orbán: 53%. 20% have a positive attitude to him, and 20% do not know him.
The absolute majority of the respondents have a negative attitude towards the leaders of Belarus (95%) and Russia (98%).
The attitudes towards Chancellor Scholz and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen have improved over the last two months, while the attitudes to the President of Turkey Erdoğan and to the President of France Macron have worsened. 
87% of the respondents would support Ukraine's accession to the European Union in the event of a referendum (4% would be against it and 8% would not vote). The support for EU accession is unanimous among the representatives of all the macro-regions and all the age groups.
69% of respondents believe that Ukraine will join the EU in 5 years (40% believe it will happen in 1-2 years, and 29%, up to five years). Another 14% believe that Ukraine will become a member of the EU in the next 5 to 10 years, and 3%, in 10 to 20 years. Only 7% do not believe that Ukraine will integrate into the European Union.
The support of Ukraine’s NATO membership has increased: 76% would support such an initiative in a referendum, 10% would not support it, and 12% would not vote. In March 2022, 68% supported joining the Alliance. In contrast to joining the EU, joining NATO is more cautiously perceived by the respondents in the East of Ukraine (55% of them support the membership, 20% are against, and 22% would not go to the polls).
Audience: the population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all oblasts, except for the temporarily occupied territories of the Crimea and Donbas, as well as the territories where there was no Ukrainian mobile connection at the time of the survey. The results were weighted using current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The sample is representative by age, sex and type of settlement. Sample population: 1200 respondents. Survey method: CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews). Error of representativeness of the study with the confidence level of 0.95: not more than 2.8%. Dates: June 18-19, 2022.

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