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Украина сегодня: вызовы и перспективы

Ukraine Today: Challenges and Prospects

Date posted: 16.05.2019 Print Full version

 Center “Social Monitoring”, Ukrainian Institute of Social Research of OleksandrYaremenko, and Sociological Group “Rating” conducted a national sociological survey on topical issues “Your opinion: May 2019”. The survey was conducted on April 30 - May 10, 2019 in 24 regions of Ukraine and in Kyiv. A total of 3,000 respondents were polled. Method of receiving information: individual face-to-face interviews at the respondent’s place of residence: 1,500 using the paper questionnaire and 1,500 using the questionnaire on the tablet. Standard deviations with a reliable 95 percent and the ratio of variables from 0,1: 0,9 to 0,5: 0,5 are 1,10 – 1,83 percent.



11.5% did not vote at this year's presidential elections; 4.6% refused to answer.
Altogether, almost 84% of the respondents took part in the voting during both rounds of the 2019 presidential elections:
o 78.9% stated the voting in the presidential elections in Ukraine on March 31, 2019 (first round).
o 78.9% also stated the voting in the presidential elections on April 21, 2019 (second round).
o 74% stated participation in the elections on both March 31 and April 21, 2019 (both rounds).
o About 5% voted only on March 31, and 4.9% only on April 21.
Indicators of the level of support for the candidates during the presidential elections on March 31 and April 21 are quite close to the official CEC data, except for the official result of V.Zelensky - support for him in the first round was higher compared to the official (31.5% of all respondents or 39.9 % among those who stated voting on March 31, 2019).
79.2% reported the intention to vote in the Verkhovna Rada elections if they were held next Sunday (49.3% would definitely vote, 29.9% would rather vote).
The residents of the oblast centers declare a higher level of readiness to vote, while the rural residents demonstrate a lower level.
Men and young voters aged 18-29 expressed below the average intention to vote.
Those who did not vote during the presidential elections are most unlikely to take part in parliamentary elections: less than one-third of them expressed a certain willingness to take part in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.
Among the voters, the level of support for political forces in the first half of May is as follows:
o "Sluha Narodu" (V.Zelensky) - 29,5% (39,9% among those who have decided and will vote);
o "Opposition Platform – Za Zhyttia" (Y.Boyko, V.Rabinovych, V.Medvedchuk) - 8.1% (10.9%);
o Bloc Of  Petro Poroshenko "Solidarnist" (P.Poroshenko, I.Lutsenko) - 7.8% (10.6%);
o All-Ukrainian Association "Batkivshchyna" (Y.Tymoshenko) - 6.7% (9.1%);
o "Syla y Chest" (I.Smeshko) - 3.8% (5.1%);
o "Civic Position" (A.Hrytsenko) - 3.7% (5.0%);
o "Opposition Bloc - Party of Peace and Development" (O.Vilkul, Y.Murayev, V.Novinsky) - 2.6% (3.5%);
o Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko - 2.4% (3.3%);
o All-Ukrainian Association "Svoboda" (O.Tyahnybok) - 1.8% (2.4%);
o Association "Samopomich" (A.Sadovyi) - 1,5% (2,0%);
o Party of Svyatoslav Vakarchuk (S.Vakarchuk) - 0.7% (0.9%).
Six political forces overcome the 5% barrier.
Thus, if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place next Sunday, there would be a significant renewal. Among the parliamentary parties, BPP "Solidarnist", "Batkivshchyna", and "Opposition Platform – Za Zhyttia" would enter the new Parliament. Among the new political forces, such new and little-known players as "Sluha Narodu" and "Syla y Chest" , as well as "Civic Position", have high chances to enter the Parliament. Such parliamentary parties as Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko and "Samopomich" do not have enough support to overcome the 5% barrier.
Leader of anti-rating is BPP "Solidarnist" - 43.9% are not ready to vote for it under any circumstances.
Possible projects of the political forces unification that were proposed by the researchers are not attractive to the electorate as of today.
After the presidential elections, public opinion demonstrates a high level of optimism - every second (49.7%) expects for improvements in Ukraine in the upcoming months, every fifth (20.9%) expects for the deterioration of the situation, and about 30% hesitated to estimate own expectations.
Less than a quarter of the voters (22.3%) give the newly-elected President of Ukraine no more than 100 days, another quarter (26.2%) - six months, after which it becomes clear whether he copes with the country management. 35.5% allow him 1-year term. Thus, the newly elected President of Ukraine is given no more than a year to show whether he copes with the leadership of the country. The data shows that more than 80% of the respondents will decide on their attitude towards the President of Ukraine maximum in a year, based on his actions and results in line with their expectations.
One of the key expectations and disappointments of the dignity revolution was a change in system of power. Therefore, it seems quite logical that among the priority expected steps of the President of Ukraine the lading one is to remove the immunity of deputies, judges, and the President (indicated by 53.7% of the polled).
Steps related to resolving the conflict in the East and its consequences took second and third places. 40.9% choose "To start direct negotiations in the quadrangle "Ukraine - the Russian Federation - so-called DNR - so-called LNR" to cease fire and to return the Donbas" and 38.4 choose "To ensure the return of Ukrainian war prisoners and detained persons".
38.1% point out the need to "Launch the dissolution of the current Verkhovna Rada and hold early parliamentary elections" among the first steps.
One-third (33.7%) named "To ensure the stability of the national currency and the banking system" as priority.
Reducing salaries of the top officials is considered relevant by 30.6%; starting or accelerating the investigation of the most resonant corruption crimes – by 25,8%; initiating a public discussion to immediately change the Attorney General, the Head of the SBU, the Prime Minister, and the current Government – by 25.4%.
The scope of today's challenges is wide enough. More than half of the polled consider such problems as very important:
o cease fire in the Donbas (88.4%);
o return of Ukrainian prisoners of war and detained persons (84.3%);
o current level of prices, inflation (84.5%);
o wages and pensions (82.8%);
o current tariffs for utilities (84.5%);
o military conflict in the East of Ukraine and reintegration of the Donbas (80.2%);
o level of social protection of the population (76,4%);
o level of healthcare (76.1%);
o availability of job places, unemployment (75.7%);
o enrichment of oligarchs and impoverishment of ordinary people (74.4%);
o corruption and nepotism of the authorities (73.7%);
o current scope of state taxes and fees (65.9%);
o crime, security level at the streets (61.4%);
o labor migration, changes in the population of Ukraine (60.9%);
o return of the Crimea (53.9%).
23.7% mentioned the positive impact of the Agreement on the Association and Free Trade between Ukraine and the European Union, signed in the summer of 2014, on the economic situation in Ukraine. 25.9% believe the Agreement has had partially positive, partly negative impact. A negative impact was noted by 12.3%. Every fifth (20%) believes that there was no effect at all, and 18.2% either have not decided or did not respond.
If the referendum were held today, 57% would vote for Ukraine's integration to the European Union, 19.3% - for the restoration of pragmatic economic relations with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and other CIS countries; 13.6% would not take part in such a referendum, and 10.1% have not decided.
The further path of Ukraine's development as "European integration, economic and cultural rapprochement with the countries of the European Union" is seen by 43.1%; as "Development and implementation of a program of economic and cultural development of Ukraine focused, first of all, on the use of internal capabilities and resources" – by 37.8%; as "Restoration and expansion of economic and cultural ties with Russia" - 12,3% (6.8% have not decided.)
Regarding the referendum on Ukraine's accession to NATO or the legislative consolidation of the non-aligned status of Ukraine, almost half (48.9%) would vote for the accession, 23.2% would be in favor of the non-aligned status. 16% would not take part in such a referendum, and 11.8% have not decided.
Attitude towards the majority of well-known politicians is mostly negative. Exception is V.Zelensky - 64.6% expressed the positive attitude towards him, 13.9% - negative; A.Hrytsenko (positive attitude was expressed by 33.5%, and negative - by 26.9%); S.Vakarchuk (31,0% vs. 24,1%) and I.Smeshko (28,6% vs. 17,4%, while 26,2% do not know him).
The top five politicians whom the voters would like to see in the next Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are: A.Hrytsenko (29.3%), Y.Boyko (26.7%), I.Smeshko (23.6%), S.Vakarchuk (22.4%), and Y.Tymoshenko (21.1%).
Top ten politicians whose public actions (statements, interviews, speeches, publications) were remembered by the voters over the last month: Tymoshenko Yulia (33.6%), Poroshenko Petro (31.2%), Lyashko Oleh (25, 8%), Boyko Yuriy (21.8%), Hrytsenko Anatoliy (16.3%), Hroysman Volodymyr (12.0%), Rabinovych Vadym (11.4%), Vilkul Oleksandr (10.6%), Savchenko Nadiya (10.3%), Medvedchuk Viktor (10.1%).
Half of the respondents (49.2%) believe that the issue of the status of uncontrolled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts is to be passed on the all-Ukrainian referendum.
65.3% answered affirmatively on the question whether Ukraine should compromise for the restoration of peace and the return of territories.
75% believe that the President of Ukraine, in order to establish peace in the East of the country, should proceed with the direct dialogue with the Russian Federation: 50.8% answered "definitely yes", and 24.2% - "rather yes". 16% disagree with this statement, and 9% have not decided.
More than half (55.4%) believe that the President of Ukraine, in order to establish peace in the East of the country, should proceed with the direct dialogue with the leaders of the so-called "LDNR"; one-third (32.7%) disagree with this statement, the rest (11.9 %) hesitate to answer.
Among the options for resolving the problem of non-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the highest level of support is gained by "Providing these territories with a special status that involves their autonomy as a part of Ukraine" (39.9%). This option prevails in all macro regions except for the West.
18.5% agreed with the option "Official recognition of the fact that these territories cannot be returned to Ukraine in the nearest years and their isolation". A slightly lower level of approval was given to the option "Continuation of the hostilities aimed at restoring Ukraine's full control over these territories by military means" - 17.3%, though it is most suitable for the residents of the Western region, where the statement is supported by 33.7%.
Issues related to the language policy and policy of limiting the influence of Russian media products remain factors contributing to the contradiction between residents of different regions of the country.
Among the Ukrainian TV channels, the leaders of trust are STB, 1+1, Ukraine, ICTV, Inter, Noviy, 112, and TET.
Top television channels, from which respondents receive socio-political information (news, social-political talk shows, expert comments), are: 1+1 (63.8%), Ukraine (62.0%), ICTV (45.8%), Inter (35.5%), 112 (33.7%), STB (28.5%), and Noviy (21.3%).
The attitude of the vast majority towards the May 9 holiday remains traditional - 83% recognize it as a great holiday. 56.8% believe the significance of this holiday has increased compared to previous years, although 44% of the Western region residents stated the decreasing importance of this holiday for them.
69.5% do not support the transfer of the holiday on May 8.

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