Waiting for the Presidential Elections: Moods of Ukrainians

• Only 8% of the polled mention the improvement in the economic situation of their households over the last six months. 60%, on the contrary, state the deterioration while other 30% claim there has been no change. The highest number of those who see the worsening of their personal economic status was recorded in the South (74%), and the lowest - in the West (40%). The older the respondents, the more often they speak about the deterioration of their own economic situation.

• The war in the East of Ukraine remains the most important national problem according to the citizens (78%). Bribery and corruption as the national problem concern 55% of the respondents, unemployment - 29%. Low level of salaries and pensions, insufficient level of social assistance, social stratification, and growth of prices for basic goods are seen as the country level problems by 16% to 18% of the polled.

• At the same time, the rating of personal problems is headed by the socio-economic issues: more than a half of the respondents are concerned by the growth of prices and tariffs, as well as low salaries and pensions. The issue of the war in the East, poor medical services, and lack of jobs are personal problems for every fifth. Insufficient level of social assistance, bribery, and corruption within the state bodies consitute problems for 15-16% of the polled, social stratification - for 10%. Other issues personally concern no more than 10% of the respondents.

• Two-thirds of the polled definitely blame the former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych for the current tough situation in Ukraine. As for P.Poroshenko, such opinion is expressed by 53%, ex-Prime Minister of Ukraine M.Azarov - 51%, acting Head of Government V.Hroisman - 40%. Russia is believed to be definitely guilty of the situation in Ukraine by 52% of the respondents, the United States – by 21%. Regarding the guilt of the Ukrainian people in general, different opinions were expressed: 9% believe the nation is clearly guilty while 24%, on the other hand, do not see any people’s fault. Within the regional context, the degree of guilt of V.Yanukovych, M.Azarov, and Russia is estimated relatively higher in the Western regions, P.Poroshenko and the United States - in the Eastern.

• Among the reforms, the most critical attitude was recorded towards the fight against corruption and medical reform. Almost 80% of the respondents are dissatisfied with the fight against bribery, 5% - are satisfied; medical reform - 75% and 10% respectively; police reform - 61% and 21%; judicial reform - 56% and 5%; education reform - 50% and 13%; decentralization - 36% and 27%. Most reforms are relatively better perceived in the Western regions of the country. Younger respondents are more inclined to approve the government initiatives than the oldest ones.

• The end of the military activities in the East is the dominant citizens’ demand of the next President of Ukraine (63%). 49% of the respondents expect the strengthening of the fight against corruption, 40% - expect the industrial recovery, 30% - the social standards increase. Healthcare improvement, reducing the oligarchs’ influence on politics, agrarian sector recovery, strengthening the country's defense capability, and stimulating business development are expected by 11% to 19% of the polled; improvement of Ukraine’s international image, reform of education and science, protection of the Ukrainian language and culture  - by  4% to 8% of the respondents.

• Two-thirds believe the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine are going to be unfair. Only 12% are convinced of their integrity, 22% were not yet able to answer this question.

• 64% consider it necessary to severely punish presidential candidates, on behalf of whom voters will be given assistance during elections (rations, money help for maintenance and repair works, medical care, etc.), 23% - share the opposite opinion. A relatively higher level of tolerance towards the electoral bribery is observed among the respondents from the South - one-third of them believe that there is no need to punish the distribution of material assistance during the elections. Also, a relatively higher number of the matter supporters was observed among the oldest respondents.

• Speeches of the politicians in the media are the main source to learn about the program principles of the presidential candidates (70%). Families and acquaintances provide such sort of information for 35% of the polled, political advertising in the media – for 27%, leaflets and booklets distributed during the campaign - 22%, news websites - 19%, social networks - 17%, outdoor advertising - 16%, articles in the printed press - 13%, official websites of the politicians - 9%, speeches at the rallies and meetings with voters - 8%. At the same time, only 14% of the respondents stated that they had ever fully acquainted themselves with the program of the presidential candidate. 49% were partially acquainted, 33% - have never even read the programs of the politicians who had run for the highest public post.

• Y.Tymoshenko remains the leader of the presidential rating – 16% of those who intend to vote and have already decided on the choice are ready to support her. 11.7% are ready to give their votes for A.Hrytsenko, Y.Boyko - 10.5%, V.Zelensky - 9.3%, S.Vakarchuk, O.Lyashko, P.Poroshenko - 8.6% each, V.Rabynovich - 7.6%, A.Sadoviy - 3.4%, O. Tyahnybok - 2.8%, V.Nalyvaichenko - 2.0%, R.Bezsmertny - 1.4%, S.Taruta and A.Yatsenyuk - 1.1% each.

• Considering the rating of the "second choice", the leadership positions are occupied by A.Hrytsenko (7.5% of the voters are ready to support him as an alternative to their main favorite), V.Zelensky (6.3%), S.Vacharchuk (6.0%), V.Rabynovich (5.7%), and Y.Tymoshenko (5.3%). 

• Anti-rating is still headed by P.Poroshenko: almost 52% of the respondents would not vote for him at any circumstances. 30% would not vote for A.Yatsenyuk, for O.Lyashko - 23.8%, Y.Boyko - 23%, Y.Tymoshenko - 20.8%, V.Rabynovich - 16.0%, O.Tyahnybok – 14.7%.

• The party rating is headed by Batkyvshchyna - 17% of those who intend to vote and have decided are ready to support this political force. The second position is shared by Opposition Bloc, Civic Position, and Sluha Narodu Party – nearly 10.5% are ready to vote for them. Za Zhyttia could be supported by 9.6%, Radical Party – by 8.2%, BPP Solidarnist - 7.4%, Samopomich - 5.1%, Svoboda - 3.8%. The rating of the other parties is less than 2%.

• Support for Ukraine's integration with the European Union and NATO remains at the sustainable level: 51% support the EU integration while 29% stand against it; as for the Euro-Atlantic integration, 44% support the idea and 36% are against.

 

Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type. Total sample: 2500 respondents. Personal formalized interview (face-to-face). The margin of error does not exceed 2.0%. Period of the survey: 14-24 June 2018