On October 3–5, Rating Group conducted a nationwide survey on current sociopolitical issues.

Expectations for winter

• A third of Ukrainians believe the situation at the front will improve this winter (33%), and about another third (30%) said it will not change. In contrast, 22% of respondents expect the situation at the front to worsen, and another 15% chose "difficult to answer."
• Most expect a deterioration in the economy (71%) and in the energy sector (63%).
• As for the situation in Ukraine overall, more than half (55%) expect it to worsen. In contrast, 12% hope for improvement, and one in four (25%) says the overall situation will not change.

We also separately asked Ukrainians to predict what the situation with energy supply will be.

• A relative majority (47%) believe things will not change compared with last year. 9% said it will improve, and 39% expect a worse situation.
• A year ago, expectations regarding winter energy supply were distributed in roughly the same way.

Attitudes toward possible negotiations

Most Ukrainians are ready for a ceasefire and support negotiations as a way to achieve peace. However, this is not peace at any price.

• An absolute majority believes that currently neither Ukraine nor Russia is winning the war (62%). A quarter speak of Ukraine's advantage (26%), and 6% of Russia's.
• Half of respondents say that peace is more important than any victory (50%), while 41% chose the option that victory is more important than any peace. Another 9% answered "difficult to say." Overall, amid intensified shelling over the past months, the share of respondents who consider victory more important has grown.
• Most respondents support ending hostilities and seeking a compromise through negotiations (57%). In contrast, 13% support continuing hostilities until a return to the lines of control as of February 23, 2022, and 21% – until the return of the territories of Donbas and Crimea.
• An absolute majority sees negotiations as a realistic way to end the war (57% consider a search for compromise with other countries involved in the negotiations to be such a way, and 26% – direct negotiations).

Territorial concessions are considered acceptable, but only with security guarantees, and the decision should be made in a nationwide referendum.

• A third of respondents (35%) oppose territorial concessions as a step toward long-term peace.
• In contrast, 56% say that for the sake of long-term peace, territorial concessions are possible, but only with security guarantees from the US and European partners, including funding for the Defense Forces and weapons. Only 3% speak of concessions without preconditions, and 6% answered "difficult to say."
• If territorial concessions are imagined as a condition for peace, most respondents believe the final decision on this should be made by the people in a referendum (68%). 17% answered that the decision should be made by the president, and 9% – by the Verkhovna Rada. This position has remained practically unchanged over the past year.

Trust in politicians, officials, and public figures

• Valerii Zaluzhnyi: trust – 64%, distrust – 25%
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy: trust – 53%, distrust – 40%
• Kyrylo Budanov: trust – 53%, distrust – 31%
• Mykhailo Fedorov: trust – 38%, distrust – 25% (another 29% have not heard of him)
• Yevhenii Khmara: a relative majority have not heard of him (43%), trust – 29%, distrust – 16%
• Petro Poroshenko: trust – 24%, distrust – 70%
• Andrii Sybiha: a relative majority have not heard of him (48%), trust – 24%, distrust – 18%

Electoral attitudes

We asked respondents whom they would vote for in the first round of a hypothetical presidential election in Ukraine.

• The top two by electoral support are Volodymyr Zelenskyy (22.9%) and Valerii Zaluzhnyi (20.2%).
• Next come Petro Poroshenko (7.6%), Mykhailo Fedorov (7.6%), and Kyrylo Budanov (6.7%).
• Andrii Biletskyi – 5.4%, Dmytro Razumkov – 5.1%, Serhii Prytula – 2.4%, Yulia Tymoshenko – 1.9%, Yurii Boyko – 1.4%.
• At the same time, 4.5% of respondents would vote for another candidate, 5.2% would not take part in the vote, and the rest (9.2%) answered "difficult to say."

Rating Group is one of Ukraine's largest research institutions, operating since 2008. The company is registered in Ukraine and has extensive experience conducting sociological surveys in Ukraine and abroad. The group includes the Rating Sociological Group, the Rating Lab research laboratory, the Rating Online platform, and the Rating CATI Center.